basia
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Post by basia on Mar 3, 2019 22:48:14 GMT
I have no idea why you are so adamant about not trusting me, so let me rephrase what I said eariler: I have a strong, extremely strong, motive to believe that Moonae is Josephine So here is my question. Why did you vote for Luke rather than Hero? We were both agreed that Josephine must have been in the tie-breaker. However, you disagreed with my idea that it was Hero. Your logic correctly surmised that I was the remaining hero (assuming you are the other one) so that made the other two the spies but surely the best way to convince me of that fact would be to vote for Hero? I voted for Luke since we both agreed that he is one of the spies and I hoped you would do the same seeing that he already has one vote. Even if you were suspicious of me you could still vote for him first and eliminate me later. I thought that if you were so sure that Hero is Josephine me voting for him would only make my situation worse- I would be voting for someone you were almost sure was a hero. About me being vague at the begining- I hoped I would be able to get my point across without being so direct since I wanted to survive to the next round, but as I saw you and Hero voting for Moonae I realized that it was not an option. As I stated before I have no clue why Moonae eliminated Space instead of anyone else. I am not that familiar with this game and while I know that to you it's an "innocent newbie stance" it's really difficult to pretend I fully understand everything as I do not. I might be digging my own grave by even bringing that up but that's how things are.
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luketrevelyan
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Post by luketrevelyan on Mar 4, 2019 3:52:21 GMT
Sorry guys, seems a lot of us have been busy lately. I don't want to hold things up so I'll vote now for Moonae.
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Post by Space Cowboy on Mar 4, 2019 4:37:24 GMT
Basia has heavily implied that Moon is Josephine, yet three of you are voting for her. Possibly two of those are the spies?
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Post by Moonae on Mar 4, 2019 5:33:13 GMT
since Josephine saved herself last round I wonder, if Josephine was in the tie breaker, why she chose me instead of the other person in the tie breaker? I guess I was acting suspicious Hypothetically-speaking-without-breaking-any-rules, maybe Josephine caught some stray comment making her suspicious that you were a spy (obviously proven wrong) and wanted to possibly catch a spy rather than simply proving her own innocence by taking out the most convenient person.
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Post by fylimar on Mar 4, 2019 7:21:28 GMT
I think, basia is right to vote for Luke. Voting for Moonae after Leliana cleared her is more than a little suspicious.
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Post by gervaise21 on Mar 4, 2019 8:13:06 GMT
Hypothetically-speaking-without-breaking-any-rules, maybe Josephine caught some stray comment making her suspicious that you were a spy (obviously proven wrong) and wanted to possibly catch a spy rather than simply proving her own innocence by taking out the most convenient person. Okay, then if I accept it was a genuine mistake based off something Space said, why didn't you support Basia by voting for Luke? I thought that if you were so sure that Hero is Josephine me voting for him would only make my situation worse- I would be voting for someone you were almost sure was a hero.
I do realise that you might have thought voting for Hero would make things worse for you and I do sometimes operate by a weird logic myself. I've given it a fair bit of thought overnight (I'm on UK time) and considered who you could have potentially investigated in previous rounds that would account for your voting pattern. Returning this morning it also seems suspicious that Luke did not vote for you as he was the only other candidate for Leliana and I made it quite clear that I thought you were either Leliana or pretending to be Leliana and you had voted for him. If he believed your claim about Moonae then why vote for her; if he didn't believe your claim then why not vote for you?
So I am going to trust your claim about Moonae and change my vote from Moonae to Luketrevelyan. Now we just need Moonae to change her vote to Luke too because I don't think we should allow this to go to a tie-breaker.
I realise everyone seems to have been busier than me in real life but it is tricky trying to get to the truth of the issue when there is so little discussion or justification being given for people voting as they have. Hero and Luke could have joined me in voting for Moonae because they know Basia's claim is false but it would have been more helpful if I had some indication of this. Whilst it is possible that I have been hoodwinked by Moonae and Basia, I have to go with their explanations simply because that is the logic by which everyone has operated in previous games.
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Post by Moonae on Mar 4, 2019 11:05:38 GMT
Two reasons I voted for Hero:
1. I missed that Basia had already voted.
2. While I'm leaning strongly against Luke being the second spy, I hadn't completely out Gervaise. I was a lot more confident regarding Hero because he said he agreed with Gervaise's theory about what happened last round. If he were a hero I feel like he should have seen more flaws in the theory.
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Post by basia on Mar 4, 2019 11:46:20 GMT
Two reasons I voted for Hero: 1. I missed that Basia had already voted. 2. While I'm leaning strongly against Luke being the second spy, I hadn't completely out Gervaise. I was a lot more confident regarding Hero because he said he agreed with Gervaise's theory about what happened last round. If he were a hero I feel like he should have seen more flaws in the theory. Ok, I see your point. I am willing to change my vote but I need assurance that Gervaise will change his vote as well since I don't think we can afford leaving this at a tie.
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Post by gervaise21 on Mar 4, 2019 12:14:35 GMT
I still have one vote change left, so I will change but only once everyone else has done so. I can understand why Moonae should be suspicious of me, although apparently not enough to have eliminated me the previous round, but I do find it strange she should be so confident in Luke. 2. While I'm leaning strongly against Luke being the second spy, I hadn't completely out Gervaise. I was a lot more confident regarding Hero because he said he agreed with Gervaise's theory about what happened last round. If he were a hero I feel like he should have seen more flaws in the theory.
If you don't think Luke is the second spy, that leaves me and Basia. Clearly, if you are Josephine, Basia cannot be the spy because she has endorsed you in that role. In fact all Hero did was join me in voting for you. This would be consistent with him being Josephine. I still don't know what Space said that would seem so suspicious to you. Why are you not suspicious of Luke when he voted for you?
There are no flaws in my theory since the only reason for doubting it is if you believe that Basia is Leliana and at the time Hero voted she had not explicitly hinted at this. If Hero is Josephine then he knows that my theory is correct. To anyone who is not Josephine my logic about who is more likely to have eliminated Space is perfectly valid.
Whilst you are justified in feeling suspicion of me, Basia has expressed a degree of confidence in me. The truth of the matter is that I am really the deciding vote in all this. From my point of view the spies are either team Luke/Hero or team Basia/Moonae. It seems unlikely that Luke/Hero are going to change their voting now but they could say something to make me doubt that you and Basia are the heroes.
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Post by Moonae on Mar 4, 2019 12:21:51 GMT
Sorry, bad wording on my part. I do believe that Luke is the second spy, but am not 100% sure.
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Post by Space Cowboy on Mar 4, 2019 12:23:00 GMT
I wonder, if Josephine was in the tie breaker, why she chose me instead of the other person in the tie breaker? I guess I was acting suspicious Hypothetically-speaking-without-breaking-any-rules, maybe Josephine caught some stray comment making her suspicious that you were a spy (obviously proven wrong) and wanted to possibly catch a spy rather than simply proving her own innocence by taking out the most convenient person. Serza did comment that one of my posts made him suspect me. Heh. Oh well.
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Post by Moonae on Mar 4, 2019 12:31:23 GMT
As for what Space said: it wasn't a particularly thought-through theory on my part. I only really came up with right before the round ended. Which is why I didn't mention it at the time - Space was revealed as a hero almost right away which disproved the theory.
It was just that Space voted for Basia in round 1. Personally, I wouldn't vote for a new player so early, before they've had a chance to play, so it stood out to me. I thought they might be spies together and pre-emptivaley had one vote for the other so if one got caught the other would look innocent.
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Post by Space Cowboy on Mar 4, 2019 12:35:11 GMT
Luke and Hero need to speak up here I think.
I’ve never seen a spy team so obviously mimic two powerful roles that are known to be in play so I’m inclined to believe Basia and Moonae.
I suspect the spies will be pushing for the elimination of one of those this voting round too. Confirmed heroes are often high priority targets for spies.
I suspect Josephines identity will be proven once Leliana is offed overnight. And she will be, sadly.
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basia
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Post by basia on Mar 4, 2019 13:55:28 GMT
Ok, so hoping that Gervaise will do so as well I change my vote from Luke to Hero.
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Post by gervaise21 on Mar 4, 2019 14:50:54 GMT
I suspect Josephines identity will be proven once Leliana is offed overnight. And she will be, sadly. Yes but that will absolutely prove who is the remaining spy, at least to me. The fact is if we don't get a spy this round then it will be game over for the heroes; they will go into the night 2/2 and come out 2/1 down. We absolutely have to get it right this time round. I'm going to hold off for a little longer to give Hero and Luke and chance to defend themselves because I have only one change left.
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Post by fylimar on Mar 4, 2019 16:52:24 GMT
I have to agree with space, that it isn't very likely that the spies would mimic two powerful hero roles, so I think, Basias and Moonaes claims are true. Gerva is acting normal, so I don't get spy vibes from her (I explained in the other thread, that I always get suspicious of gerva, when she is too quietm since she is normally participating a lot), which would leave Hero and luke and I'm relatively confident, that if you vote for one of those two, you will get a spy. Of course a plot from Basia and Moonae isn't totally out of question. But I'm sure, the real Leliana and Josie would speak up in that case, so waiting for luke and Hero is probably a good idea
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luketrevelyan
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Post by luketrevelyan on Mar 4, 2019 17:36:42 GMT
Returning this morning it also seems suspicious that Luke did not vote for you as he was the only other candidate for Leliana and I made it quite clear that I thought you were either Leliana or pretending to be Leliana and you had voted for him. If he believed your claim about Moonae then why vote for her; if he didn't believe your claim then why not vote for you? From my perspective it is clear they are working together so there would be no difference either way. I did consider voting for Basia but thought that might just be confusing for the other heroes and someone would have to switch later or the spies could take advantage of the split voting. I'm confident in my vote so I won't be changing (unless you want to vote for Basia instead). This particular situation made it pretty easy for the spies to pretend to be other roles because everyone knew Leliana and Josephine were in play. Have one spy be Leliana and say the other is Josephine, and if you do it early enough everyone will believe you. I also have been quiet and tried not to give any clues to my identity, although towards the end of the game that can be kind of difficult. As has already been said, we can't afford to not get this right.
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Post by gervaise21 on Mar 4, 2019 17:37:49 GMT
I'm really waiting for something from Luke as I've already said that Hero's voting is consistent with him being Josephine and thus voting for the person to whom Basia has attributed the role. Unfortunately, Luke does seem to be genuinely busy IRL so I'm not sure if he has been following our discussion. As I say, my only reason for hesitating is that once I make my final change, that will be it and I will have sealed the fate of either the heroes or the spies.
I know it seems highly unlikely that Moonae and Basia are the spies but to be honest if anyone could suggest such an audacious plan as to mimic those two roles at this stage in the game it would be Moonae, whilst Basia is an unknown quantity so for all I know she could be a very convincing liar. Moonae's alleged reasons for voting for Space last round just bothers me, as was Basia initially suggesting that Josephine could be either Moonae or Hero and only asserted that it was Moonae when I suggested that probability favoured Hero. I know that Leliana needs to be careful about revealing herself too early in the game with no protection available but at this stage there was no need to be coy. She should have expressed confidence in Moon straight off rather than beating about the bush.
EDIT: Luke has posted whilst I was writing this. I am going to have my dinner and then think about it some more.
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Post by basia on Mar 4, 2019 19:59:10 GMT
I know it seems highly unlikely that Moonae and Basia are the spies but to be honest if anyone could suggest such an audacious plan as to mimic those two roles at this stage in the game it would be Moonae, whilst Basia is an unknown quantity so for all I know she could be a very convincing liar. Moonae's alleged reasons for voting for Space last round just bothers me, as was Basia initially suggesting that Josephine could be either Moonae or Hero and only asserted that it was Moonae when I suggested that probability favoured Hero. I know that Leliana needs to be careful about revealing herself too early in the game with no protection available but at this stage there was no need to be coy. She should have expressed confidence in Moon straight off rather than beating about the bush. I wouldn't use a tactic to mimic these roles unless I knew for sure that you are not Leliana, since basically you are the one we are trying to convince. Before there were no clues who was her, so there was a chance that was you. If Moonae and I were spies, pretending to be Leliana without any confirmation who you are and claiming that Moonae is innocent at the same time would be like shooting myself in the foot. Of course I had a 50% chance of guessing correctly, but since it is a deciding moment I wouldn't take it. And about me not expressing my trust in Moonae- as I said before I kind of hoped to live another day. I stated earlier that I trusted you more than Luke, but I wasn't sure, so of course I would want to be able to confirm that. But since this discussion started I am sure who the spies are. Knowing that and you and Hero voting for Moonae made me confident that I should write what I wrote to save the situation.
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Post by gervaise21 on Mar 4, 2019 20:16:15 GMT
Further thoughts. Basia is much more plausible to me as Leliana than Moonae is as Josephine. I still don't understand the logic in eliminating Space for the reason she claimed. It would make sense for Hero to have done so. However, if he is Josephine why didn't he save himself from the tie-breaker in the first round? After the Day 2 result, Pela said she had a good idea who Josephine was. Tell me Pela, who did you think was Josephine?
The reason I find Basia more plausible as Leliana is that her voting follows a pattern that suggests she investigated certain people. If I was new to the game, I might well have investigated my friend on night 1 so I could feel confident in her. Day 1 voting Basia followed Romice's vote citing her confidence in her as her real life friend. This was a good way to cover the fact she had investigated her and so knew that at least she was voting with someone she knew wasn't a spy. However, she didn't try and help when Romice was in danger which would suggest she didn't know for certain she was innocent. May be she just didn't want to draw attention to herself at first and then no longer needed to take action because Romice was safe.
Day 2 Basia expressed confidence in Pela, giving completely plausible reasons for this but this could also be because she had investigated her overnight. She stated suspicion in Hero and Moonae and then followed my vote for her. This put Moonae on 2 votes when no one else had any; a very high risk strategy for spies but totally understandable if Basia was genuinely suspicious of Moon.
Day 3 Basia insists that Moonae is Josephine, which would be consistent with her having investigated Moonae overnight.
By contrast I do find it difficult to follow Luke's voting pattern if based on investigations. I suppose it is possible that he initially investigated Catalina so had nothing to go on. Then investigated Romice so again nothing to go on, although he expressed confidence in Pela so may be he investigated her. Finally he could have investigated Moonae. Also in Round 2 he made a point of casting suspicion at Hero, then said he didn't want to vote for either Hero or Moon, instead opting for Space, before contradicting this and voting for Moonae to give Hero a chance. This seems somewhat erratic behaviour for a spy so I don't know what to make of that.
Immediately following Pela's elimination I was fairly confidence that Hero was Josephine and was inclined towards Luke being Leliana but not absolutely certain about his identity and could equally see him working with either Moonae or Basia as a spy. Now Basia's revelations has thrown everything up into the air, I'm going to have to ponder this some more. I'll try and come to a decision before I close down for the night.
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Post by gervaise21 on Mar 4, 2019 20:57:18 GMT
Okay, I'm going to make my final irrevocable vote and hope I have got it right. Since the majority feel that the impersonation idea is highly unlikely and Basia does seem a credible Leliana I change my vote from Luketrevelyan to The Hero of Ferelden.
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Post by luketrevelyan on Mar 5, 2019 17:09:19 GMT
Well, that is unfortunate. I don't imagine anyone else is going to change votes at this point.
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Post by gervaise21 on Mar 5, 2019 19:15:53 GMT
Well, that is unfortunate. Sorry Luke but the weight of opinion seemed to be that I was being paranoid in even contemplating the idea that Basia is faking it. If you and Hero turn out to be innocent it will be a salutary lesson not to believe everything that people claim.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2019 20:20:55 GMT
Current Votes: moon 2 hero 3
Still to Vote: nada
The voting closes in 7h.
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Post by pelassarias on Mar 5, 2019 23:56:32 GMT
Well, that is unfortunate. Sorry Luke but the weight of opinion seemed to be that I was being paranoid in even contemplating the idea that Basia is faking it. If you and Hero turn out to be innocent it will be a salutary lesson not to believe everything that people claim. Well if this turns out being the case, then this also shows that Heroes have to counter non-hint when necessary and if they have the time. Part of the reason why players are believing basia and Moonae right now is because no other player has challenged them. So here's hoping basia and Moonae are really are who they non hinted as.
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