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Post by midnight tea on Feb 27, 2019 18:15:07 GMT
But I don't think Andromeda was doomed by the initial sales, I think it was doomed by the ensuing months sales and the remaining player base when it came time to release additional content. That is going to be the issue for this Anthem as well. How many people will still be playing or will come back once they start rolling out the new content. Obviously they'll have more patience and be willing to put more resources into making changes or overhauling it completely in the case of Anthem. Agreed. Tracking data probably showed that ME:A players weren't sticking around while ME3 players, for all their whining, were. The real threat to Anthem are the guys who picked up Premier, played through Anthem, and decided to drop both Premier and Anthem since the game didn't offer them enough value to stick around, and the guys who paid full price but ended up in the same place. Are there a lot of them? Beats me. A bunch of them are around here, but this is all anecdotal since we don't have access to the real data. If folks who bought Premier for a month to play Anthem then come back and pay every time substantial content drops or accumulates over months then chances are EA will be swimming in money fairly soon, if they don't already. In fact, I think that's the reason why EA is pushing this business model. There are way more players who play only occasionally or for a limited time than us, fans and hardcores - you think they won't find it a bargain to pay 4$ or 15$ for a month and then subsequently play it (+have access to other games), and then keep repeating that every now and then (or just buy a sub for a year, because Anthem has enough value to make the bundle of games EA has in its vault a good deal)? The game will go on discount occasionally - subscription fee may occasionally be on discount too, but other than that it will likely stay about the same.
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Post by midnight tea on Feb 27, 2019 18:22:28 GMT
(will we now hear that "this is just partial UK data"? LOL)
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Post by majesticjazz on Feb 27, 2019 18:39:40 GMT
People, Anthem is the worse reviewed Bioware and will probably fail to make EA's INITIAL sales projections. You can move the goal post all you want but 2 years ago when everyone was dogging MEA, "Dylan" at the time was supposed to show that Bioware is still a quality developer and that "Dylan" was supposed to change the conversation. Two years later....we are YET again in the aftermath of CONSECUTIVE Bioware failures. Wait a second. I thought we were discussing where the goal posts really are, not trying to move them. Review scores are just something we use to make guesses about the fate of the game. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom had mediocre Metacritic scores, but when a picture makes $400 million nobody gives a damn. Edit: just to put my own marker down. I thought ME:A was merely OK, based on my ten hours. I'll play it again, someday. Maybe I'll wait for it to show up on Basic or a deep discount. But my personal score has more to do with my indifference to the genre rather than the particular implementation; for instance, my impression is that the loot isn't good, but I don't think that getting this right would have made me like the game all that much more. (Which doesn't mean that it isn't a serious design flaw for people who do like the genre.) But there isnt evidence that suggest Anthem was a financial hit. Yes, we will never know the sales of Anthem cause EA doesnt release those numbers. But what we will eventually know is if it met projections or not. When DAI broke records in terms of sales, EA made that very clear. With MEA, EA was very quiet and vague outside of, "We are satisfied with MEA sales...." So in the coming weeks, depending on how well/bad Anthem sells....will show how much they brag about Anthem doing well or how quiet/vague they are about the sales. Even then there will be a back and fourth in terms of was Anthem a financial hit? Was it a financial failure? Or did it just barely get by?
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Post by majesticjazz on Feb 27, 2019 18:42:48 GMT
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Post by samhain444 on Feb 27, 2019 18:43:59 GMT
Wait a second. I thought we were discussing where the goal posts really are, not trying to move them. Review scores are just something we use to make guesses about the fate of the game. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom had mediocre Metacritic scores, but when a picture makes $400 million nobody gives a damn. Edit: just to put my own marker down. I thought ME:A was merely OK, based on my ten hours. I'll play it again, someday. Maybe I'll wait for it to show up on Basic or a deep discount. But my personal score has more to do with my indifference to the genre rather than the particular implementation; for instance, my impression is that the loot isn't good, but I don't think that getting this right would have made me like the game all that much more. (Which doesn't mean that it isn't a serious design flaw for people who do like the genre.) But there isnt evidence that suggest Anthem was a financial hit. Yes, we will never know the sales of Anthem cause EA doesnt release those numbers. But what we will eventually know is if it met projections or not. When DAI broke records in terms of sales, EA made that very clear. With MEA, EA was very quiet and vague outside of, "We are satisfied with MEA sales...." So in the coming weeks, depending on how well/bad Anthem sells....will show how much they brag about Anthem doing well or how quiet/vague they are about the sales. Even then there will be a back and fourth in terms of was Anthem a financial hit? Was it a financial failure? Or did it just barely get by? There isnt evidence that suggest that Anthem was not a financial hit (shrug)...it hasn't been out a week
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Post by samhain444 on Feb 27, 2019 18:50:12 GMT
I like the update to the article: [Update] As covered by GamesIndustry, the UKIE/GfK has published its Top Ten for the week ending February 23rd. Anthem has claimed the first spot in the UK boxed charts, thereby beating recent big releases such as Metro Exodus and Far Cry: New Dawn. Unfortunately, actual sales numbers are missing.
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Post by smilesja on Feb 27, 2019 18:52:29 GMT
That’s basically what was said on the OP.
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Post by samhain444 on Feb 27, 2019 18:55:28 GMT
That’s basically what was said on the OP. This particularly cracks me up: "Only 10% of Destiny’s First Week Sales" "Destiny" came out Tuesday, September 9th, 2014...earlier in the week and over 4 years ago when physical copies made up a greater share of the purchases. They are really stretching in some of these article to get those clicks
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Post by bshep on Feb 27, 2019 18:58:49 GMT
I like the update to the article: [Update] As covered by GamesIndustry, the UKIE/GfK has published its Top Ten for the week ending February 23rd. Anthem has claimed the first spot in the UK boxed charts, thereby beating recent big releases such as Metro Exodus and Far Cry: New Dawn. Unfortunately, actual sales numbers are missing. Pretty much.
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Post by majesticjazz on Feb 27, 2019 19:05:31 GMT
But there isnt evidence that suggest Anthem was a financial hit. Yes, we will never know the sales of Anthem cause EA doesnt release those numbers. But what we will eventually know is if it met projections or not. When DAI broke records in terms of sales, EA made that very clear. With MEA, EA was very quiet and vague outside of, "We are satisfied with MEA sales...." So in the coming weeks, depending on how well/bad Anthem sells....will show how much they brag about Anthem doing well or how quiet/vague they are about the sales. Even then there will be a back and fourth in terms of was Anthem a financial hit? Was it a financial failure? Or did it just barely get by? There isnt evidence that suggest that Anthem was not a financial hit (shrug)...it hasn't been out a week Like I said, we will soon know based on EA's response. Lets get this one thing straight, even if it was a failure EA would never say that. They will redirect towards more positive metrics or keep it vague like "Anthem continues to sell well..." vs something more concrete like, "Anthem is Bioware's fastest/best selling product...." or "Anthem has surpassed our intial projections...."
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Post by samhain444 on Feb 27, 2019 19:17:22 GMT
There isnt evidence that suggest that Anthem was not a financial hit (shrug)...it hasn't been out a week Like I said, we will soon know based on EA's response. Lets get this one thing straight, even if it was a failure EA would never say that. They will redirect towards more positive metrics or keep it vague like "Anthem continues to sell well..." vs something more concrete like, "Anthem is Bioware's fastest/best selling product...." or "Anthem has surpassed our intial projections...." ok
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Post by bshep on Feb 27, 2019 19:26:13 GMT
There is nothing straight about that, EA do say when a game fail expectations. They did it with both BFV and Titantfall sales in the past, very recently in the former's case. But i guess that doesn't fit the narrative that a game can sell well and be noted for it on those EA reports for investors...
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Post by river82 on Feb 27, 2019 20:43:09 GMT
I like the update to the article: [Update] As covered by GamesIndustry, the UKIE/GfK has published its Top Ten for the week ending February 23rd. Anthem has claimed the first spot in the UK boxed charts, thereby beating recent big releases such as Metro Exodus and Far Cry: New Dawn. Unfortunately, actual sales numbers are missing. People need more knowledge of the industry before feeling optimistic or pessimistic about this stuff. So it has been pointed out that those overly pessimistic don't take in digital data, and it's true, especially for a game EA was using to push its platform. HOWEVER, those overly optimistic about the UK charts desperately need some context. So, how's Far Cry: New Dawn doing? Far Cry New Dawn‘s launch week sales are 85.6% lower than Far Cry 5‘s sales in 2018, as reported by GamesIndustry.biz. Even when compared to the franchise’s last spin-off game, Far Cry Primal, the gap is clear. Primal sold almost four times as much as much as New Dawn during its first week.
Okay, so Far Cry New Dawn's tanking it seems. Well, I wonder what Metro's sales figures are like: It's no secret that THQ's Metro 2033 "wasn't properly nurtured," but the game's cult status has translated into over 1.5 million sales since its launch in March 2010 across Xbox 360 and PC.
Call me crazy, but I don't think a game which is expected to sell 5-6 million copies in a month (according to EA) should be compared with a game which sells a few million over its lifetime.
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Post by linksocarina on Feb 27, 2019 20:45:46 GMT
I am still going to point out the very zen attitude of BioWare while this is all going on in the background. They seem very comfortable at the moment in making sure the game actually works, and that Gamble Tweet, among other signs such as relating information from Travis Day of Diablo III on Reddit to the production team to consider as long-term fixes. So they seem to be very...humble I guess is the word, regarding what to do with the game going forward.
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Post by giubba on Feb 27, 2019 20:46:50 GMT
I like the update to the article: [Update] As covered by GamesIndustry, the UKIE/GfK has published its Top Ten for the week ending February 23rd. Anthem has claimed the first spot in the UK boxed charts, thereby beating recent big releases such as Metro Exodus and Far Cry: New Dawn. Unfortunately, actual sales numbers are missing. People need more knowledge of the industry before feeling optimistic or pessimistic about this stuff. So it has been pointed out that those overly pessimistic don't take in digital data, and it's true, especially for a game EA was using to push its platform. HOWEVER, those overly optimistic about the UK charts desperately need some context. So, how's Far Cry: New Dawn doing? Far Cry New Dawn‘s launch week sales are 85.6% lower than Far Cry 5‘s sales in 2018, as reported by GamesIndustry.biz. Even when compared to the franchise’s last spin-off game, Far Cry Primal, the gap is clear. Primal sold almost four times as much as much as New Dawn during its first week.
Okay, so Far Cry New Dawn's tanking it seems. Well, I wonder what Metro's sales figures are like: It's no secret that THQ's Metro 2033 "wasn't properly nurtured," but the game's cult status has translated into over 1.5 million sales since its launch in March 2010 across Xbox 360 and PC.
Call me crazy, but I don't think a game which is expected to sell 5-6 million copies in a month (according to EA) should be compared with a game which sells a few million over its lifetime. If there is even 1 person with a modicum of common sense in the EA management I'm pretty sure he/she already said to forget those sales expectations considering the hate campaign from the media
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Post by bshep on Feb 27, 2019 20:53:49 GMT
I am still going to point out the very zen attitude of BioWare while this is all going on in the background. They seem very comfortable at the moment in making sure the game actually works, and that Gamble Tweet, among other signs such as relating information from Travis Day of Diablo III on Reddit to the production team to consider as long-term fixes. So they seem to be very...humble I guess is the word, regarding what to do with the game going forward. Well they do have acess to pre-order and sales numbers post release. Maybe their attitude have something to do with this.
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Post by giubba on Feb 27, 2019 20:55:14 GMT
I am still going to point out the very zen attitude of BioWare while this is all going on in the background. They seem very comfortable at the moment in making sure the game actually works, and that Gamble Tweet, among other signs such as relating information from Travis Day of Diablo III on Reddit to the production team to consider as long-term fixes. So they seem to be very...humble I guess is the word, regarding what to do with the game going forward. Well they do have acess to pre-order and sales numbers post release. Maybe their attitude have something to do with this. Or they received assurances from EA
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Post by midnight tea on Feb 27, 2019 21:08:32 GMT
I am still going to point out the very zen attitude of BioWare while this is all going on in the background. They seem very comfortable at the moment in making sure the game actually works, and that Gamble Tweet, among other signs such as relating information from Travis Day of Diablo III on Reddit to the production team to consider as long-term fixes. So they seem to be very...humble I guess is the word, regarding what to do with the game going forward. Well they do have acess to pre-order and sales numbers post release. Maybe their attitude have something to do with this. One could argue that they also have green light from EA to go with their live-service plans for much longer than we assume they do, but I also assume that Mike Gamble and other devs underlining that 'a lot of people like Anthem too' is a code for 'we have more people actually enjoying/playing the game than you'd think'.
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Post by samhain444 on Feb 27, 2019 21:21:09 GMT
I like the update to the article: [Update] As covered by GamesIndustry, the UKIE/GfK has published its Top Ten for the week ending February 23rd. Anthem has claimed the first spot in the UK boxed charts, thereby beating recent big releases such as Metro Exodus and Far Cry: New Dawn. Unfortunately, actual sales numbers are missing. People need more knowledge of the industry before feeling optimistic or pessimistic about this stuff. So it has been pointed out that those overly pessimistic don't take in digital data, and it's true, especially for a game EA was using to push its platform. HOWEVER, those overly optimistic about the UK charts desperately need some context. So, how's Far Cry: New Dawn doing? Far Cry New Dawn‘s launch week sales are 85.6% lower than Far Cry 5‘s sales in 2018, as reported by GamesIndustry.biz. Even when compared to the franchise’s last spin-off game, Far Cry Primal, the gap is clear. Primal sold almost four times as much as much as New Dawn during its first week.
Okay, so Far Cry New Dawn's tanking it seems. Well, I wonder what Metro's sales figures are like: It's no secret that THQ's Metro 2033 "wasn't properly nurtured," but the game's cult status has translated into over 1.5 million sales since its launch in March 2010 across Xbox 360 and PC.
Call me crazy, but I don't think a game which is expected to sell 5-6 million copies in a month (according to EA) should be compared with a game which sells a few million over its lifetime. And? Look, it's a click-bait article that started this thread to begin with claiming "sales are duh disappoint" while providing numbers out of context. As for comparing them to "Metro" or "New Dawn", that was the article but I was more highlighting "Unfortunately, actual sales numbers are missing"...yeah no kidding I'm neutral about "Anthem's" sales because 1) there haven't been any legit figures released, just a UK sales chart based on the 2 days "Anthem" has been released to that point. 2) because they don't effect me personally one way or the other. Despite the mixed reviews, it appears to have sold well...if it's well enough we'll find out in May for EA's Q4 2018 financial report.
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Post by river82 on Feb 27, 2019 21:43:35 GMT
People need more knowledge of the industry before feeling optimistic or pessimistic about this stuff. So it has been pointed out that those overly pessimistic don't take in digital data, and it's true, especially for a game EA was using to push its platform. HOWEVER, those overly optimistic about the UK charts desperately need some context. So, how's Far Cry: New Dawn doing? Far Cry New Dawn‘s launch week sales are 85.6% lower than Far Cry 5‘s sales in 2018, as reported by GamesIndustry.biz. Even when compared to the franchise’s last spin-off game, Far Cry Primal, the gap is clear. Primal sold almost four times as much as much as New Dawn during its first week.
Okay, so Far Cry New Dawn's tanking it seems. Well, I wonder what Metro's sales figures are like: It's no secret that THQ's Metro 2033 "wasn't properly nurtured," but the game's cult status has translated into over 1.5 million sales since its launch in March 2010 across Xbox 360 and PC.
Call me crazy, but I don't think a game which is expected to sell 5-6 million copies in a month (according to EA) should be compared with a game which sells a few million over its lifetime. And? Look, it's a click-bait article that started this thread to begin with claiming "sales are duh disappoint" while providing numbers out of context. As for comparing them to "Metro" or "New Dawn", that was the article but I was more highlighting "Unfortunately, actual sales numbers are missing"...yeah no kidding I'm neutral about "Anthem's" sales because 1) there haven't been any legit figures released, just a UK sales chart based on the 2 days "Anthem" has been released to that point. 2) because they don't effect me personally one way or the other. Despite the mixed reviews, it appears to have sold well...if it's well enough we'll find out in May for EA's Q4 2018 financial report. And I commented when this first came to light in another thread that people should take it with a grain of salt due to EA's digital ambitions. But what's the point? The point is gamers are being flooded with 2 sides of the same coin with very few actually taking an impartial view. The video that Midnight Tea linked is actually done by someone equivalent of a hater, just coming from the other perspective. Open World Games has spent the past week or more running around desperately defending the game, while throwing a smattering of negatives in his videos to give it a semblance of impartiality (the same criticisms you can level at people like Angry Joe). Take a close look at that UK chart people are throwing around. The second place on that list bombed. Games 3 and 4 have been released for close to half a year, game number 5 never sells enough to be in comparison with a game like Anthem, number 6 has been out for over a month and is a port of a 7 year game, game number 8 I'm pretty sure has been out for 2 years. Now if you listen to the guy in the video he says the interesting thing is about digital and he goes on about that. What he doesn't mention is that Anthem basically outsold, in that week, a bunch of games that have been out for approximately a half year, a game that's tanking, and a game that shouldn't be in competition. EDIT: Despite displaying it being 1st on that chart he gives it no context ... intentionally btw. Open World Games, like Yong Yea, does dodgy analysis. I'll call that stuff out just like people like to call out Yong Yea.
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Post by midnight tea on Feb 27, 2019 21:48:34 GMT
Despite the mixed reviews, it appears to have sold well...if it's well enough we'll find out in May for EA's Q4 2018 financial report. And that's just for base game. We don't know what will be results for live-services. But since Ubisoft was brought up... Live-services made up half or more of the revenue for titles like last Assasin's Creed games. And they have... 1 or 2 years of live-services baked into each title so far? How much would Anthem have and how will they fare if they keep doing well with those?
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Post by cypherj on Feb 27, 2019 21:50:21 GMT
I shake my head every time I see people say we'll find out on the earnings call. No you won't. The only way you get the truth is if the company misses earnings and have to explain why, like EA did last quarter when they had to explain how Battlefield and Battlefront sold less than expectations. After the way their stock got hammered last quarter, the last thing they're going to do is come out and say the major project this year is behind projections. Unless they miss earnings again and then they'll have to.
Marketing writes all of the releases for these calls.
An example from my own company. We sell our software as either a license, pay up front. Or as a SaaS service. We acquired a company 100% billed by what they actually use. We tried to forecast it, we were way off. We still made earnings as a company though. When we released numbers we talked about the acquisition as part of a group, along with the products it was supplementing. The release said that bookings and revenue were boosted by the product family of X,Y,Z, which included and the acquisition. Also, that existing clients were transitioned to our servers seamlessly, and their response was overwhelmingly positive. All of this is technically true, and you would think everything was great with this acquisition. When in actuality that product line alone missed projections, and although existing clients were transitioned smoothly, new clients, or clients that tried to integrate it with the core product were having terrible issues.
Marketing's only job is to put to the company in the best light as possible. They know that if you make earnings with revenue, margin, overall sales, etc being good, investors don't care about anything but high level. They only want to get into the guts of it if you don't make earnings.
Edit: I'm not saying Anthem is selling terribly. I'm just saying that you can't count on earnings calls for the truth.
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Post by river82 on Feb 27, 2019 22:00:58 GMT
Edit: I'm not saying Anthem is selling terribly. I'm just saying that you can't count on earnings calls for the truth. We'll probably find out in a few years or something xD
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Post by alanc9 on Feb 27, 2019 22:06:34 GMT
Agreed. Tracking data probably showed that ME:A players weren't sticking around while ME3 players, for all their whining, were. The real threat to Anthem are the guys who picked up Premier, played through Anthem, and decided to drop both Premier and Anthem since the game didn't offer them enough value to stick around, and the guys who paid full price but ended up in the same place. Are there a lot of them? Beats me. A bunch of them are around here, but this is all anecdotal since we don't have access to the real data. If folks who bought Premier for a month to play Anthem then come back and pay every time substantial content drops or accumulates over months then chances are EA will be swimming in money fairly soon, if they don't already. In fact, I think that's the reason why EA is pushing this business model. There are way more players who play only occasionally or for a limited time than us, fans and hardcores - you think they won't find it a bargain to pay 4$ or 15$ for a month and then subsequently play it (+have access to other games), and then keep repeating that every now and then (or just buy a sub for a year, because Anthem has enough value to make the bundle of games EA has in its vault a good deal)? The game will go on discount occasionally - subscription fee may occasionally be on discount too, but other than that it will likely stay about the same The Access economics are getting interesting. At $15 a month a full-price game is the same price as four months of Access. Say three months if I'm willing to wait for a big discount. While I don't think EA publishes enough games for me to just give them my $100/year, dropping in and out to play stuff like Battlefield games, Anthem, etc., looks cost-effective. The lower tier is interesting too. While I already outright own everything I'm really invested in, there's a bunch of stuff I haven't played yet which I always intended to get to someday. Torment, earlier Battlefield games, the whole Arkham series. That's a lot of gaming hours for $5/month. (Hell, maybe Anthem shows up in that tier sooner rather than later.)
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cypherj
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Games: Mass Effect Trilogy, Dragon Age: Origins, Dragon Age 2, Dragon Age Inquistion, KOTOR, Baldur's Gate, Neverwinter Nights, Jade Empire, Mass Effect Andromeda
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cypherj
Mass Effect Trilogy, Dragon Age: Origins, Dragon Age 2, Dragon Age Inquistion, KOTOR, Baldur's Gate, Neverwinter Nights, Jade Empire, Mass Effect Andromeda
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Post by cypherj on Feb 27, 2019 22:10:24 GMT
Edit: I'm not saying Anthem is selling terribly. I'm just saying that you can't count on earnings calls for the truth. We'll probably find out in a few years or something xD They'll probably never say anything unless the game exceeds expectations, and then they would trip over themselves to say it. Moreso, for any game in the ' games as a service' era, initial sales aren't even the most important thing. I think Andromeda had a good launch, it just didn't have any legs after all of the negative press and word of mouth. Anthem, for the type of game it is, will need to have legs, regardless of whether the launch is good or bad.
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