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Post by midnight tea on Mar 26, 2019 15:02:06 GMT
Many people play games now compared to 2012. Also - EA Access. There's just no way EA is not factoring EA Access into that, given how big it is compared to 2012 and how much money it's making them (or the fact that Anthem has been tailored to it).
More people playing the game, EA Access, none of this changes the point I'm trying to make.
5-6 million copies is 5-6 million copies. So if we know that ME3 sold 6 million. Anthem would need to blow past ME3 launch by a lot to make these expectations. Say ME3 sold 2 -2.5 million copies at lanuch. Anthem would need to surpass this significantly, and then continue strong sales in the following weeks to get to 5-6 million. If they have a worse launch there's no way they make 3.5-4 million on the back end in-between the close of the launch window and the end of the 37 days.
This is the only point I've been trying to make. This game has to have a far better launch than ME3 did no matter how you look at it.
These numbers are for launch day alone, AFAIK. Don’t forget that EA was apparently so pleased by preorders/EA Access that it’s what made them estimate sales at 5-6 million, and those will be ultimately factored in. Anthem is currently the 2nd best selling game of 2019 after Kingdom Hearts and before RE2 remake - the former has apparently sold around 5 milions and the latter 4. However the game will sell prior to end of the quarter, if these numbers are true, EAs estimates don’t appeart to be that far off.
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Post by Qui-Gon GlenN7 on Mar 26, 2019 15:03:32 GMT
Shills gonna shill shinobiwan, I no longer have any doubt about one of them. These magical numbers are interesting though. Seems like a bunch of Fake News and spin doctors trying to make Anthem not be the miserable fail that it is. This figure is meaningless anyway. If BioWare makes chicken salad out of the shit the churned out, people like chicken salad. They'll buy it if it's good, and a GAAS will be measured by its long-term success not it's launch month sales. So, keep on fooling the easily fooled. The gamer demographic is a lost cause because parents with "gaming" children get involved. Most parents are retarded when it comes to their children, and children are children. That leaves adult gamers without kids (the demo that I care about because they are far less casual) to get ploughed by both, ignored by all, munching popcorn or preparing a weinie roast. This hobby needs an enema.
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Post by cypherj on Mar 26, 2019 15:35:46 GMT
More people playing the game, EA Access, none of this changes the point I'm trying to make.
5-6 million copies is 5-6 million copies. So if we know that ME3 sold 6 million. Anthem would need to blow past ME3 launch by a lot to make these expectations. Say ME3 sold 2 -2.5 million copies at lanuch. Anthem would need to surpass this significantly, and then continue strong sales in the following weeks to get to 5-6 million. If they have a worse launch there's no way they make 3.5-4 million on the back end in-between the close of the launch window and the end of the 37 days.
This is the only point I've been trying to make. This game has to have a far better launch than ME3 did no matter how you look at it.
These numbers are for launch day alone, AFAIK. Don’t forget that EA was apparently so pleased by preorders/EA Access that it’s what made them estimate sales at 5-6 million, and those will be ultimately factored in. Anthem is currently the 2nd best selling game of 2019 after Kingdom Hearts and before RE2 remake - the former has apparently sold around 5 milions and the latter 4. However the game will sell prior to end of the quarter, if these numbers are true, EAs estimates don’t appeart to be that far off. EA Access wouldn't counted in the 5-6 million. Pre-orders would, but not Access. I had access already, so they didn't make a dime off of me for the LOTD edition. But even if someone signed up for access and only played Anthem so far, you still can't count that the same way that you count a unit sale. EA gets just for arguments sake 60-80 dollars right away for sold units. For Access, even if they attributed the entire subscription to Anthem they would only get between $8.33 and $30 per account between launch and the end of the quarter. But at the same time, how many people like myself already had access and are just playing this game for free? Not counting micro-transactions obviously.
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Post by alanc9 on Mar 26, 2019 15:49:50 GMT
EA gets just for arguments sake 60-80 dollars right away for sold units. Only for direct digital sales. For other channels it's, what, 50% of that? And of course, some percentage of those subscriptions will stick around -- stickiness is the real point of Access. God knows what percentage, or how to allocate that revenue. Sort of like how HBO and Netflix can't just tally up a show's ad revenue against its production costs.
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Post by samhain444 on Mar 26, 2019 16:03:56 GMT
EA gets just for arguments sake 60-80 dollars right away for sold units. Only for direct digital sales. For other channels it's, what, 50% of that? If it's an original IP, for a $60 game, retailers get 20%, reducing the cut to $48, and then platform (XBox/PS) gets 30% off that, reducing their cut to around $33.60. If they sell the game directly through XBox Live/PSN, the cut takes out the retailers and you are looking at just the 30%, leaving $42 per game. PC sales through Origin would give the 100% profit. So, in terms of the $100,000,000.00+ for what is being referenced here, if it is just XBox/PSN direct digital sales, and we are using $100,000,000.00 as an exact number after the platform had their cut, that's about 2.4 million units in 7 days (Feb 22-28).
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Post by cypherj on Mar 26, 2019 16:11:43 GMT
EA gets just for arguments sake 60-80 dollars right away for sold units. Only for direct digital sales. For other channels it's, what, 50% of that? And of course, some percentage of those subscriptions will stick around -- stickiness is the real point of Access. God knows what percentage, or how to allocate that revenue. Sort of like how HBO and Netflix can't just tally up a show's ad revenue against its production costs.
Well, I said for arguments sake because I just didn't want to try and figure out what percentages stores get or whatever, so I just said everything.
For the second point and I only know this because I'm an accountant. You can only recognize revenue on software after it's been delivered to the clients. So even if someone pre-ordered a game, you can't count it as revenue until the game launches. SO they take all that as once.
As far as subscriptions, for argument's sake you apply all of the revenue to Anthem. Someone signed up, and played Anthem and only Anthem. If they're paying monthly you can count $14.95 in Feb and $14.95 in March, or just $14.95 in March depending when they signed up. Even if someone dropped $100 for the annual, you can still recognize at most 1/12 per month. So anywhere from $8.33 to $16.66.
Which is why Access sales couldn't have been counted as part of the 5-6 million sold. It had to be in addition to.
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Post by alanc9 on Mar 26, 2019 17:33:37 GMT
OK, but when we already know the figure has to be substantially less than 100% -- retailers have to make their money from somewhere -- 100% really isn't a sensible working assumption. We should at least pick something that sounds like it might be plausible.
Who's the "client" when there's a retailer middleman?
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Post by cypherj on Mar 26, 2019 17:54:29 GMT
Only for direct digital sales. For other channels it's, what, 50% of that? If it's an original IP, for a $60 game, retailers get 20%, reducing the cut to $48, and then platform (XBox/PS) gets 30% off that, reducing their cut to around $33.60. If they sell the game directly through XBox Live/PSN, the cut takes out the retailers and you are looking at just the 30%, leaving $42 per game. PC sales through Origin would give the 100% profit. So, in terms of the $100,000,000.00+ for what is being referenced here, if it is just XBox/PSN direct digital sales, and we are using $100,000,000.00 as an exact number after the platform had their cut, that's about 2.4 million units in 7 days (Feb 22-28).
EA said that Andromeda would sell 3 million in the first week, which would make up 30-50% of the lifetime sales or 6-10 million units. That's three million out the gate to get a minimum of 6 million lifetime. For Anthem we're talking about 37 days to 5-6 million.
I don't think people are understanding just how big of a launch this game needed to reach this goal. So if most sales are now digital as people keep saying, this 2.4 million in digital sales probably wouldn't be big enough to get them where they want to be in 37 days. If launch sales make up 30-50% of a games lifetime sales, just imagine what would percentage of the 5-6 million would be needed at launch to reach 5-6 million in 37 days.
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Post by midnight tea on Mar 26, 2019 18:39:07 GMT
These numbers are for launch day alone, AFAIK. Don’t forget that EA was apparently so pleased by preorders/EA Access that it’s what made them estimate sales at 5-6 million, and those will be ultimately factored in. Anthem is currently the 2nd best selling game of 2019 after Kingdom Hearts and before RE2 remake - the former has apparently sold around 5 milions and the latter 4. However the game will sell prior to end of the quarter, if these numbers are true, EAs estimates don’t appeart to be that far off. EA Access wouldn't counted in the 5-6 million. Pre-orders would, but not Access. I had access already, so they didn't make a dime off of me for the LOTD edition. But even if someone signed up for access and only played Anthem so far, you still can't count that the same way that you count a unit sale. EA gets just for arguments sake 60-80 dollars right away for sold units. For Access, even if they attributed the entire subscription to Anthem they would only get between $8.33 and $30 per account between launch and the end of the quarter. But at the same time, how many people like myself already had access and are just playing this game for free? Not counting micro-transactions obviously. You're missing the point. I said that preorders/EA Access performance is why EA was pleased enough that they estimated sales till end of March to reach 5-6 million. And if Anthem is indeed the 2nd best-selling game of 2019 and the game behind it has sold 4 million already with KHIII reaching 5 million (at Feb 5th) then their estimates so far don't seem that outlandish. Like, if these things are anywhere close to accurate, there's no way Anthem didn't already sell at least over 4 million copies. It's just basic logic. Also - however they factor in EA Access, they do indeed factor it in. There's a reason why Anthem, as well as their other recent games, have been tailored to it - Origin is basically their current main revenue stream. It's like console exclusives - it doesn't matter how well the game sells (even if good sales are always a good thing, duh), what matters is that the game has either brought people to use their platform or made them stay for longer. And apparently - given that it's preorders and demo sign-ins that have made EA estimate Anthem sales on 5-6 million - EA does indeed know how many people have signed or stayed in their subscription model to try Anthem. Subscription aren't exactly the same thing as consoles, but they are close enough to think that companies know how to calculate revenue the game brought via their platform irrespective of direct game sales. It's just basic psychology, one of which the whole MTX business circles around - they may not be making money off you (arguably, because another game in their library that people download and play - which they, undoubtedly, scrupulously record - acts as an incentive to keep paying for the sub regularly), but you'll just find way more people willing to pay 15$ for a month of access than spending 60-80$ on a single title.
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Post by samhain444 on Mar 26, 2019 18:39:34 GMT
If it's an original IP, for a $60 game, retailers get 20%, reducing the cut to $48, and then platform (XBox/PS) gets 30% off that, reducing their cut to around $33.60. If they sell the game directly through XBox Live/PSN, the cut takes out the retailers and you are looking at just the 30%, leaving $42 per game. PC sales through Origin would give the 100% profit. So, in terms of the $100,000,000.00+ for what is being referenced here, if it is just XBox/PSN direct digital sales, and we are using $100,000,000.00 as an exact number after the platform had their cut, that's about 2.4 million units in 7 days (Feb 22-28).
EA said that Andromeda would sell 3 million in the first week, which would make up 30-50% of the lifetime sales or 6-10 million units. That's three million out the gate to get a minimum of 6 million lifetime. For Anthem we're talking about 37 days to 5-6 million.
I don't think people are understanding just how big of a launch this game needed to reach this goal. So if most sales are now digital as people keep saying, this 2.4 million in digital sales probably wouldn't be big enough to get them where they want to be in 37 days. If launch sales make up 30-50% of a games lifetime sales, just imagine what would percentage of the 5-6 million would be needed at launch to reach 5-6 million in 37 days.
Again, we're just speculating with incomplete information. I looked at "Anthem" in all marketplaces and only Amazon has it on sale at the moment six days before the end of the quarter and those are just physical copies They don't appear to be in panic mode in regards to it's financial reception. If Anthem+Apex Legends = good/great Q4 2018, are we going to hear "units sold"? Probably not unless it exceeded it's goal by something like million units. They'll be talking about revenue generated. "Anthem" will have a longer revenue tail than any of their other console releases due to the fact they can add stuff on the fly and could have bi-weekly updates with added content, features, challenges, etc. Also, we'll see what kind of unit numbers are moved as they reduce the price to $49/$39/$29/etc as the main goal is to get people in and have them visit daily.
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Post by midnight tea on Mar 26, 2019 19:21:41 GMT
EA said that Andromeda would sell 3 million in the first week, which would make up 30-50% of the lifetime sales or 6-10 million units. That's three million out the gate to get a minimum of 6 million lifetime. For Anthem we're talking about 37 days to 5-6 million.
I don't think people are understanding just how big of a launch this game needed to reach this goal. So if most sales are now digital as people keep saying, this 2.4 million in digital sales probably wouldn't be big enough to get them where they want to be in 37 days. If launch sales make up 30-50% of a games lifetime sales, just imagine what would percentage of the 5-6 million would be needed at launch to reach 5-6 million in 37 days.
Again, we're just speculating with incomplete information. I looked at "Anthem" in all marketplaces and only Amazon has it on sale at the moment six days before the end of the quarter and those are just physical copies They don't appear to be in panic mode in regards to it's financial reception. If Anthem+Apex Legends = good/great Q4 2018, are we going to hear "units sold"? Probably not unless it exceeded it's goal by something like million units. They'll be talking about revenue generated. "Anthem" will have a longer revenue tail than any of their other console releases due to the fact they can add stuff on the fly and could have bi-weekly updates with added content, features, challenges, etc. Also, we'll see what kind of unit numbers are moved as they reduce the price to $49/$39/$29/etc as the main goal is to get people in and have them visit daily. I'm really not worried - the only people trying to sell the idea that Anthem's 100 mil is actually bad is those who seem to be emotionally invested in being negative towards it, while every article I've read that mentioned 100 mil and appears to have been written by people who actually know something about economy/game sales seem impressed by the NPD estimate for Anthem. That, paired with Anthem so far being the 2nd best selling game of 2019 - if the numbers for KHIII and RE2 Remake are correct - means that, from logical standpoint, Anthem must've crossed over 4 million sales a week ago (at minimum) and now question remains how close to the 5-6 estimate they may be. And, as you said, that's just a start - given both the game's long live-service tail and whatever EA will make out of EA Access. The thing I'd caution against is to not obsess over monthly revenue estimates, as these will fluctuate both with new game releases across the game market as well as how substantial the live services and patches will be.
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Post by samhain444 on Mar 26, 2019 19:34:12 GMT
Again, we're just speculating with incomplete information. I looked at "Anthem" in all marketplaces and only Amazon has it on sale at the moment six days before the end of the quarter and those are just physical copies They don't appear to be in panic mode in regards to it's financial reception. If Anthem+Apex Legends = good/great Q4 2018, are we going to hear "units sold"? Probably not unless it exceeded it's goal by something like million units. They'll be talking about revenue generated. "Anthem" will have a longer revenue tail than any of their other console releases due to the fact they can add stuff on the fly and could have bi-weekly updates with added content, features, challenges, etc. Also, we'll see what kind of unit numbers are moved as they reduce the price to $49/$39/$29/etc as the main goal is to get people in and have them visit daily. those who seem to be emotionally invested in being negative towards it I do find it amusing that there are those who seem to think that EA is just going to shut off the servers at some point this year. EA is invested in GaaS so they are going to see how far they can go with "Anthem" before there is a reconsideration of the overall plan.
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Post by cypherj on Mar 26, 2019 19:44:17 GMT
those who seem to be emotionally invested in being negative towards it I do find it amusing that there are those who seem to think that EA is just going to shut off the servers at some point this year. EA is invested in GaaS so they are going to see how far they can go with "Anthem" before there is a reconsideration of the overall plan.
See, these kind of posts make me laugh. What does debating one side of point have to do with being negative towards anything, or saying it's going to fail. If I said you have all these Bioware fanboys defending this game like they made it or something, people would be jumping down my throat.
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Post by samhain444 on Mar 26, 2019 20:02:42 GMT
I do find it amusing that there are those who seem to think that EA is just going to shut off the servers at some point this year. EA is invested in GaaS so they are going to see how far they can go with "Anthem" before there is a reconsideration of the overall plan.
See, these kind of posts make me laugh. What does debating one side of point have to do with being negative towards anything, or saying it's going to fail. If I said you have all these Bioware fanboys defending this game like they made it or something, people would be jumping down my throat.
Well, I'm glad I made someone smile today so that's something positive.
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Post by cypherj on Mar 26, 2019 20:41:46 GMT
See, these kind of posts make me laugh. What does debating one side of point have to do with being negative towards anything, or saying it's going to fail. If I said you have all these Bioware fanboys defending this game like they made it or something, people would be jumping down my throat.
Well, I'm glad I made someone smile today so that's something positive. I don't take this stuff too seriously. I'm a Financial Analyst so these types of things interest me. Which is why I comment so much. I may not be an expert on games sales as mentioned earlier, but I do help create my companies budget, forecasts, and packages for board meetings and earnings reports. I wonder how many people writing articles on this have backgrounds in Finance, Accounting or Business. I've been with Bioware since the beginning, Baldur's Gate. So if they're messing up I'm going to say it. Has nothing to do with being negative. Has no one ever had a coach or teacher that said I yell at you and ride you because I care. When I stop yelling is when you should worry. I played Anthem, and I hope they fix it up. I've put it down for Sekiro, but I hope Bioware puts out new content for Anthem, and improves the big flaws in the game.
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Post by Iakus on Mar 26, 2019 21:03:34 GMT
I do find it amusing that there are those who seem to think that EA is just going to shut off the servers at some point this year. EA is invested in GaaS so they are going to see how far they can go with "Anthem" before there is a reconsideration of the overall plan.
See, these kind of posts make me laugh. What does debating one side of point have to do with being negative towards anything, or saying it's going to fail. If I said you have all these Bioware fanboys defending this game like they made it or something, people would be jumping down my throat.
"Agree with me or you're a hatey hater who hates!" It's how things are run now.
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Post by samhain444 on Mar 26, 2019 21:06:59 GMT
Well, I'm glad I made someone smile today so that's something positive. I don't take this stuff too seriously. I'm a Financial Analyst so these types of things interest me. Which is why I comment so much. I may not be an expert on games sales as mentioned earlier, but I do help create my companies budget, forecasts, and packages for board meetings and earnings reports. I wonder how many people writing articles on this have backgrounds in Finance, Accounting or Business. I've been with Bioware since the beginning, Baldur's Gate. So if they're messing up I'm going to say it. Has nothing to do with being negative. Has no one ever had a coach or teacher that said I yell at you and ride you because I care. When I stop yelling is when you should worry. I played Anthem, and I hope they fix it up. I've put it down for Sekiro, but I hope Bioware puts out new content for Anthem, and improves the big flaws in the game. I don't take it that seriously either and, just for clarification, I don't think in any way your criticisms of BioWare, EA, or Anthem means I am including you in a small group of people I observed legitimately wishing for their respective demise. As for this place, this sub-forum, it can be a real bummer to comb through the posts. I'm a ME (including ME:A) and DA fan and I guess that biases me towards having a more positive outlook on BioWare and what they develop. I certainly don't hide that bias
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Post by smilesja on Mar 26, 2019 21:11:12 GMT
See, these kind of posts make me laugh. What does debating one side of point have to do with being negative towards anything, or saying it's going to fail. If I said you have all these Bioware fanboys defending this game like they made it or something, people would be jumping down my throat.
"Agree with me or you're a hatey hater who hates!" It's how things are run now. Really?! As if people from the other side are soooo much better! "Agree with me or you're a filthy Biodrone!" This subforum has been infested with stuff like that for weeks since Anthem's launch and you actually believe that things are run like you just said?
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Post by Iakus on Mar 26, 2019 21:23:35 GMT
"Agree with me or you're a hatey hater who hates!" It's how things are run now. Really?! As if people from the other side are soooo much better! "Agree with me or you're a filthy Biodrone!" This subforum has been infested with stuff like that for weeks since Anthem's launch and you actually believe that things are run like you just said?
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Post by PapaCharlie9 on Mar 26, 2019 22:32:27 GMT
Lol, lots of people being dazzled by an apparently big number without really thinking about what it means. $100m in revenue is like 1.6 million copies at $60. In reality, it's less factoring in legion of dawn sales at $80 and potentially origin subs attributed to Anthem. That's much fewer than I was expecting. That $3.5m mtx revenue is truly alarming, holy hell. Late to the party, but I have to respond to your numbers and interpretation. Average unit price was lower than $60 for physical copies. Remember all the memes of Anthem being in the discount bin a week after launch? So your total unit number is understated. And 3.5m mtx sales is shocking for being so high, not low. The environment for in-game sales during February was just about as bad as it could get — many people couldn’t even play the game on either PS4 or Xbox. And the products on offer were pitifully limited. I expected mtx to be way lower than that.
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We destroy them or they destroy us.
Games: Mass Effect Trilogy, Dragon Age: Origins, Dragon Age 2, Dragon Age Inquisition, KOTOR, Jade Empire, Mass Effect Andromeda, SWTOR, Anthem, Mass Effect Legendary Edition
Origin: MasterDassJennir
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Post by bshep on Mar 26, 2019 22:33:24 GMT
"Agree with me or you're a hatey hater who hates!" It's how things are run now. Really?! As if people from the other side are soooo much better! "Agree with me or you're a filthy Biodrone!" This subforum has been infested with stuff like that for weeks since Anthem's launch and you actually believe that things are run like you just said? You do know you are talking to Iakus right? The one who made a huge drama over leaving the forum. Hyperbole is his middle name.
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Post by shinobiwan on Mar 26, 2019 22:54:25 GMT
Average unit price was lower than $60 for physical copies. Remember all the memes of Anthem being in the discount bin a week after launch? So your total unit number is understated. We were talking about digital revenue only. Wont argue that the cosmetic offerings are abysmal and $3.5m is a decent result given what was offered, but it's very low as a general matter.
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Post by Iakus on Mar 26, 2019 23:12:48 GMT
Really?! As if people from the other side are soooo much better! "Agree with me or you're a filthy Biodrone!" This subforum has been infested with stuff like that for weeks since Anthem's launch and you actually believe that things are run like you just said? You do know you are talking to Iakus right? The one who made a huge drama over leaving the forum. Hyperbole is his middle name.
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Post by therevanchist25 on Mar 27, 2019 1:17:00 GMT
I think EVERYONE around here needs to chill. Because from my perspective, both sides have been a little ridiculous and have been since MEA. You're all so entrenched in your respective camps now that it's become hilariously partisan.
To act like people with positive outlooks and attitudes are "bullying" people with a more cynical/critical look, is kinda funny honestly. The act of bullying is an inheirently negative thing, which is antithesis to being positively minded. Hell the devs themselves are even laughing at this idea, with a new npc conversation they added into Anthem, with two guys complaining about people around the fort being happy and more positive and how it's offensive to them.
On the other hand, some of the more positively minded folks around here, are a -little- bit naive when it comes to the issues the game suffers from, weather it's intentional or not. I'm someone who actively enjoys the game, and think it's great (for the most part). But I'm also not shy about talking about it's problems. Which extend beyond "Oh the game had some bug problems". In fact I know some of these people are a tad naive, because some of them are the same people who swore up and down that MEA would get DLCs, because the game was "really fun and EA said it did well!"
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Post by Sartoz on Mar 27, 2019 2:09:16 GMT
Apologies if this has been posted elsewhere.
EA announced that they laid off 350 people because of "difficulties". I guess the 3rd Q was brutal and the 4th may be as well. An unfortunate decision.
This announcement proves, imo, EA is looking after their investors.
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