Why do people choose Expert packs instead of Premium packs?

Double ammo glitch?

But the premium has extra chance for an UR... isn't what everyone is after?

You still have the same chance for UR´s, why not get more consumeables while you are at it.

I read somewhere that it seems the actual drop chance of a UR sans Pity Counter is a piddly 4%. Why pay twice as much on such a low roll? Just buy Experts and get the same amount of Gold cards and twice as many Boosters. And don't forget, sometimes that 4% UR drop happens in Expert Packs too.

Yep, expert and premium both share the same pity counter but PPs have higher UR drop rates. PPs are risky but when you spend 10m+ credits on them, you will likely get more URs. However if less than 10m, it's even more risky so in that case then Expert is the way to go.

Uh, lots of people reporting more than 10 Premiums without a UR drop. Which is double when you consider the 2 rare slots.

People are seeing exactly a 20% chance of one UR per Premium pack. In other words... on average 500k of premiums gives you 1 UR char/weapon.

People are seeing the pity counter give 1 UR if you buy the 10 expert packs. In other words... even if there was a 0% chance of getting an UR in your first 9 packs, you'd also spend 500k on experts to give you 1 UR char/weapon. But because there is a 4ish%* chance on each expert pack before that, you actually spend less than 500k for each 1 UR char/weapon. Plus you get more equipment.

*Within 0.5%, based on the likelyhood of getting a streakbreaker on 302 expert packs, but who cares when people collecting data on premiums are getting no more than 20% chance.

TLDR: The odds might be higher for the random (first 9 packs without) premiums but there is a streakbreaker for expert packs that makes the UR odds better per credit.

We're still talking about credits, right?

The empirical data collected so far indicates that expert packs are strictly superior to premium packs when you buy them using credits. Premium packs are probably better for andromeda points but if the pity timer is 10 packs on both they are actually equal to a fraction of a percent in terms of UR per andromeda point spent.

A lot of people say EA is cashgrabbing with MP. I don't usually hop onboard the "fuck EA" ship, however.. if it's true that Premiums do not actually have a pity timer, or Premium's is just flat out worse, that is a pretty slimy thing to do as people paying money for packs are definitely going to gravitate towards Premiums for the 300 points vs 200 point Experts. On top of the shady wording of "higher chance for at least 1 Ultra-Rare". Actually, isn't that fraud?

Based on the following assumptions:

1) Each rare slot in a pack has 10% chance of becomming an ultra rare
2) The expert pack has a 10 pack pity timer
3) The premium pack also has a 10 pack pity timer

the average cost per ultra rare from each pack is:

Expert pack: 342k credits or 1370 andromeda points
Premium packs: 446k credits or 1340 andromeda points

expert packs are simply better.

In 1 million credits. (~19-20 full gold games)
20 expert packs give
-20-40 or more gold cards/ultra rare chances (you can even get three items in one pack rarely)
-minimum 2 ultra rares (1 every 10)
-up to 80 consumables (- for extra items)

10 premium packs give
-20-30 gold cards/ultra rare chances (you can get three as often as you do two in expert packs)
-minimum 1 ultra rare (1 every 10)
-up to 30 consumables.

It's literally worse at everything, unless the drop rate for ultra rares is something like triple, which even if it is, you can get screwed over twice as hard in just the ultra rare items alone, let alone the massive reduction in everything else.

I have had triple ultra rare drops from expert packs, so it's not even like you have better upper limits on premiums, unless they can give you four ultra rares while experts can't. But good luck when you get half as many chances to try for less likely outcomes.