The Plots of DA4

It depends on how they approach the present conflict. My take from Tevinter Nights is that instead of going for the Qun against Tevinter (where such a binary choice would have been applicable), they are framing it as the "rogue" Antaam against Tevinter, with the proper Qun, i.e. those still obeying the leadership on Par Vollen, not actually involved. Many members of the Antaam seem to be particularly brutal and even relish going against what the Ariqun would approve of. So the question arises, who is actually leading them?

Now as we know, the writers are happy to play fast and loose with previously established lore when it suits them to. However, I found it very hard to buy the current idea that the Antaam are operating independently of Par Vollen, particularly if our Sten is still the Arishok. The whole recent strategy of the Qun with regard to Tevinter, which involved intelligence gathering and subversion from within rather than outright attack, was his idea. He originally suggested this in defiance of his superiors when he was still a junior officer. His argument was that the only way to achieve success against Tevinter, and the other nations for that matter, was to understand and undermine their systems of governance, so when the Qun finally did attack again they could achieve a conclusive victory. All those agents across the south, including Tallis and the Iron Bull, were part of that strategy of intelligence gathering and subversion of the local population.

So, whilst I could believe that Stenishok had decided the time was right to launch an attack on Tevinter mainland on the basis that his previous strategy had set the foundations for it, I find it hard to believe that it was even necessary for him to do this in defiance of the rest of the leadership. It is the Arishok who determines military strategy, when to attack, when to withdraw, when to negotiate a peace because it suits the purposes of the Qun. That is his role and according to WoT it is why outsiders often mistake him for a King. The other members of the Triumverate would not seek to encroach on his decision making any more than he would interfere with their roles. What does happen is that the Rasaan is meant to accompany him as spiritual adviser on behalf of the Ariqun, so if he is in any doubt over whether his actions, or the actions of his Antaam, are in keeping with the demands of the Qun, she will give a judgement on the matter. (For some reason the Rasaan did not accompany the last Arishok in DA2 but presumably that is because they thought it was going to be a simple matter of recovering the tome, though why she wasn't sent to advise him once he became stranded in Kirkwall is anyone's guess).

Anyway, according to WoT2, during the period leading up to Trespasser, the Arishok seemed to be amassing dreadnoughts on Seheron, which suggested that maybe he was preparing for an imminent invasion. This could have initially been in preparation for the Dragon's Breath plot coming to fruition (which I maintain the leadership on Par Vollen always knew about and only distanced themselves from it when it failed). So, when that plan had to be aborted, Stenishok instead decided to direct his forces against an Imperium that was severely compromised by internal politics (which he would know about from his spy network). It made sense that having failed to achieve a quick coup in the south, the would launch a surprise attack on Tevinter in the hope of achieving a quick victory in the north.

Yet, the writers would have us believe that the leadership on Par Vollen, which in the past meant the Triumverate that included the Arishok, were against this move and the Antaam was acting without their backing, which ordinarily they would need in order to maintain supply lines, etc. That to me just doesn't make sense. Why would the Arishok have rebelled, particularly Sten, if it meant going against the will of the Qun? Why would the other members of the Triumverate have ignored his opinion that now was the right time to attack Tevinter a country with which they have never been officially at peace? Up until 30 years previously, attacking the Tevinter mainland had been a regular occurrence. It was only when the last major offensive ended in a humiliating defeat that Sten persuaded them to change their strategy. If generals within the Antaam had defied the Arishok, the Ben-Hassrath would have been dispatched to remove them.

This is why I think the whole rebel idea is really a ruse to fool outside agents, particularly those of Solas, because we have also been told that the Qun know more about his activities than anyone else.  They know about his threat and they intend stopping him by any means necessary. It is clear they have both fooled and rattled him because of the actions of his agent trying to bring the rest of the Qun into the conflict by taking out the peaceful settlement of Kont-arr and trying to make it look like the work of Tevinter. The only problem with this theory is that allegedly the Antaam is planning an imminent invasion of Antiva before having achieved absolute victory over Tevinter. This would be crazy as it would break the Llomerryn Accord, immediately bringing all the southern nations in on the side of Tevinter against the Qun.  Of course, this could be another bit of misinformation on the part of the Qun, so everyone including Solas, thinks that is what they are going to do and that draws their attention away from the Ben-Hassrath's activities elsewhere.

So, to my mind, the only other possibility is that Stenishok was assassinated by members of the Sicarri, which has been their aim ever since he became Arishok because they saw what a dangerous strategist he would be. The leading members of the Antaam were so outraged by this that they launched their attack without waiting for the approval of the other members of the Triumverate or waiting for the appointment of a new Arishok. This would explain why they are acting without the backing of Par Vollen and have lost all sense of a coherent strategy, just forging ahead and attacking whichever target they deem appropriate. Meanwhile, the leadership back in Par Vollen are doing their best not to get involved because they are concerned about Solas and realise that the majority of the Ben'Hassrath and their other resources should be focused on finding and neutralising him.  Note, the current Rasaan was involved in Tevinter Nights but still not at the side of the Arishok.  Instead she was researching information about Solas.