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Post by cypherj on Feb 25, 2019 20:11:20 GMT
There's no way the development and marketing of Andromeda warranted 6-10 million copies to break even, or anything close to it. I think ME3 sold around 6 million. They thought they were going to increase sales up to 66% on what was essentially a new IP without Shepard?
Anthem, the 6 million wasn't even lifetime. I think they said they were going to sell that many by the first week of March or something like that. If this were Anthem II, and Anthem I had been a success, maybe.
"Prior to the release of Mass Effect: Andromeda, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Blake Jorgensen projected that it would sell 3 million units before the end of March, and 6 to 9 million units during its lifetime. BioWare General Manager Aaryn Flynn predicted that it would sell at least 5 million copies worldwide. Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter estimated that Mass Effect: Andromeda shipped at least 2.5 million physical units in its opening quarter, resulting in $110 million in revenue. The closest that EA has come to noting an exact figure was in their fourth quarter (Q4) of fiscal year 2017 (FY17) notes for investors, which stated that $53 million of the game's net sales related to its special editions were to be captured in Q1 FY18 instead of Q4 FY17 (the quarter of its release) for accounting purposes." 2.5 million physical units it's first quarter, not counting digital (SuperDeluxe Edition was Digitial Only at $100), the game likely sold 6 million units combined at least over the past ~2 years.
I would be shocked if it sold more than 4 - 4.5 million. Like I said, ME3 sold around 6 million. Andromeda had a worse launch, we can assume this because if Andromeda had a better launch we would have heard something about Andromeda having the best launch ever for an ME game. Then add the fact that the game had a much shorter life span than ME3 with support being pulled the way it was and no DLC. There's no way I can see it selling any where near what ME3 did.
Also, shipped physical units just means they sent copies to Best Buy, Walmart, etc. Not that all those copies were sold. After that it comes down to whatever deal they had with these places for copies that went unsold or had to be discounted.
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Post by samhain444 on Feb 25, 2019 20:18:22 GMT
"Prior to the release of Mass Effect: Andromeda, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Blake Jorgensen projected that it would sell 3 million units before the end of March, and 6 to 9 million units during its lifetime. BioWare General Manager Aaryn Flynn predicted that it would sell at least 5 million copies worldwide. Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter estimated that Mass Effect: Andromeda shipped at least 2.5 million physical units in its opening quarter, resulting in $110 million in revenue. The closest that EA has come to noting an exact figure was in their fourth quarter (Q4) of fiscal year 2017 (FY17) notes for investors, which stated that $53 million of the game's net sales related to its special editions were to be captured in Q1 FY18 instead of Q4 FY17 (the quarter of its release) for accounting purposes." 2.5 million physical units it's first quarter, not counting digital (SuperDeluxe Edition was Digitial Only at $100), the game likely sold 6 million units combined at least over the past ~2 years.
I would be shocked if it sold more than 4 - 4.5 million. Like I said, ME3 sold around 6 million. Andromeda had a worse launch, we can assume this because if Andromeda had a better launch we would have heard something about Andromeda having the best launch ever for an ME game. Then add the fact that the game had a much shorter life span than ME3 with support being pulled the way it was and no DLC. There's no way I can see it selling any where near what ME3 did.
In January 2017, they said ME3 sold over 6 million so, even if it approached 6 million (5.5...5.75 units) you still wouldn't hear about it. All we have are estimates at this point since EA doesn't release Origin "per unit" sales figures and tracking digital sales in general in not exact. Either way, EA was positive enough with ME:A to investors when they have had no qualms in the past about voicing disappointment in regards to other games if it feels appropriate.
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Post by linksocarina on Feb 25, 2019 20:33:06 GMT
Depends on the budget of the game. For a project like this I suspect 6 million is close to break even. It really does depend. Just in terms of sales, 6 million copies at between $60 to $80 per unit...let's call it $70...$420,000,000. So, was the cost to develop this game, including marketing, near $400,000,000? SWTOR was $200 million, ME:A was $80 mil What would you peg the development costs? likely $100 million minimum before marketing. Because it was six years in development who can say. I am likely off on the numbers then if were figuring that, but a lot of extra and external costs are factored in. I honestly don't know, usually companies push for the break even number to make.
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Post by papaspud on Feb 25, 2019 20:33:45 GMT
Bad launch, bad reviews, bad game= they aren't going to sell as many games.... very simple.
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Post by Andrew Lucas on Feb 25, 2019 20:43:25 GMT
Anyone have a guess at how much of that 50% is just the normal progression of physical copies dwindling out, and how much is a genuinely bad response to Anthem? Physical sales drop continues downwards. EA's push to promote Origin Premier will also have pushed many away from purchase. How does Premier affect console purchases? That's where the majority of physical releases go to since forever by this point.
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Post by samhain444 on Feb 25, 2019 20:43:35 GMT
Just in terms of sales, 6 million copies at between $60 to $80 per unit...let's call it $70...$420,000,000. So, was the cost to develop this game, including marketing, near $400,000,000? SWTOR was $200 million, ME:A was $80 mil What would you peg the development costs? likely $100 million minimum before marketing. Because it was six years in development who can say. I am likely off on the numbers then if were figuring that, but a lot of extra and external costs are factored in. I honestly don't know, usually companies push for the break even number to make. Maybe...guess it's hard to gauge until maybe we get another Jason Schreier-esque expose. They said that ME:A was between $73-$80 including marketing and that was in development for near 5 years. If we are thinking longer dev time and additional marketing blitz (E3, TV ads, Life-size Cosplay "mechsuits", billboards, etc), I want to guess $120-$140 mil...again, meaning somewhere around 4-5 million copies sold to break even.
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Post by river82 on Feb 25, 2019 20:46:24 GMT
likely $100 million minimum before marketing. Because it was six years in development who can say. I am likely off on the numbers then if were figuring that, but a lot of extra and external costs are factored in. I honestly don't know, usually companies push for the break even number to make. Maybe...guess it's hard to gauge until maybe we get another Jason Schreier-esque expose. They said that ME:A was between $73-$80 including marketing and that was in development for near 5 years. If we are thinking longer dev time and additional marketing blitz (E3, TV ads, Life-size Cosplay "mechsuits", billboards, etc), I want to guess $120-$140 mil...again, meaning somewhere around 4-5 million copies sold to break even. Fewer devs on Andromeda I'd imagine. Reportedly Andromeda was consistently undermanned whereas Anthem has always had plenty of resources thrown at it.
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Post by linksocarina on Feb 25, 2019 20:48:20 GMT
likely $100 million minimum before marketing. Because it was six years in development who can say. I am likely off on the numbers then if were figuring that, but a lot of extra and external costs are factored in. I honestly don't know, usually companies push for the break even number to make. Maybe...guess it's hard to gauge until maybe we get another Jason Schreier-esque expose. They said that ME:A was between $73-$80 including marketing and that was in development for near 5 years. If we are thinking longer dev time and additional marketing blitz (E3, TV ads, Life-size Cosplay "mechsuits", billboards, etc), I want to guess $120-$140 mil...again, meaning somewhere around 4-5 million copies sold to break even. Will also have upkeep costs as well eat into it since its fully online and such. That will contribute as well.
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Post by bshep on Feb 25, 2019 20:53:29 GMT
EA expects the game to sell between 5-6 million units, so from where did you took this 4-5M figure samhain444? Anyway, physical copies for software are dwindling every year as companies opt more and more for digital releases. I don't read too much into it.
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Post by samhain444 on Feb 25, 2019 21:08:09 GMT
Maybe...guess it's hard to gauge until maybe we get another Jason Schreier-esque expose. They said that ME:A was between $73-$80 including marketing and that was in development for near 5 years. If we are thinking longer dev time and additional marketing blitz (E3, TV ads, Life-size Cosplay "mechsuits", billboards, etc), I want to guess $120-$140 mil...again, meaning somewhere around 4-5 million copies sold to break even. Will also have upkeep costs as well eat into it since its fully online and such. That will contribute as well. Which they are trying to counter with microtransactions...I can tell form 30+ hrs of playing the game, the COIN drop is pretty decent but some people won't want to wait and will buy shards.
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Post by samhain444 on Feb 25, 2019 21:10:29 GMT
EA expects the game to sell between 5-6 million units, so from where did you took this 4-5M figure samhain444 ? Anyway, physical copies for software are dwindling every year as companies opt more and more for digital releases. I don't read too much into it. "askagamedev" broke down the cost of games and what everyone gets in terms of a slice and they estimated that, if development cost of the game was $120 mil using an original IP (not licenced like Star Wars for example), at $60 it would need to sell 4-5 million units to break even depending on if physical copy, digital copy and if it's through someplace like Origin.
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Post by Doc on Feb 25, 2019 21:12:03 GMT
Anyone have a guess at how much of that 50% is just the normal progression of physical copies dwindling out, and how much is a genuinely bad response to Anthem? Physical sales drop continues downwards. EA's push to promote Origin Premier will also have pushed many away from purchase. For sure that's contributing. I have played every bit of content in Anthem(aside from the grind challenges) and canceled my prime subscription. It sucks I won't be able to hop in and try a large storm event in... May? I think? But I got my fifteen bucks worth of game!
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Post by linksocarina on Feb 25, 2019 21:14:38 GMT
Physical sales drop continues downwards. EA's push to promote Origin Premier will also have pushed many away from purchase. For sure that's contributing. I have played every bit of content in Anthem(aside from the grind challenges) and canceled my prime subscription. It sucks I won't be able to hop in and try a large storm event in... May? I think? But I got my fifteen bucks worth of game! That is giving them money basically. I would bet a lot of metrics would consider that some form of digital download/sale, so I wouldn't be surprised if they say it was a successful launch despite the mixed reviews.
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Post by Doc on Feb 25, 2019 21:15:20 GMT
EA expects the game to sell between 5-6 million units, so from where did you took this 4-5M figure samhain444 ? Anyway, physical copies for software are dwindling every year as companies opt more and more for digital releases. I don't read too much into it. "askagamedev" broke down the cost of games and what everyone gets in terms of a slice and they estimated that, if development cost of the game was $120 mil using an original IP (not licenced like Star Wars for example), at $60 it would need to sell 4-5 million units to break even depending on if physical copy, digital copy and if it's through someplace like Origin. Oooor... The CEO at EA could decline just one bonus and cover the entire development cost of that game. They won't, though.
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Post by samhain444 on Feb 25, 2019 21:20:05 GMT
"askagamedev" broke down the cost of games and what everyone gets in terms of a slice and they estimated that, if development cost of the game was $120 mil using an original IP (not licenced like Star Wars for example), at $60 it would need to sell 4-5 million units to break even depending on if physical copy, digital copy and if it's through someplace like Origin. Oooor... The CEO at EA could decline just one bonus and cover the entire development cost of that game. They won't, though. Yeah, can't think of a CEO in games right now who would and, unfortunately, Satoru Iwata passed away in 2015.
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Post by Doc on Feb 25, 2019 21:24:52 GMT
That is giving them money basically. I would bet a lot of metrics would consider that some form of digital download/sale. Fifteen is much less than sixty or eighty though. I thought I'd try first and buy a copy if Anthem was good. Players that used this method to try Anthem, of which I suspect there are many, will be completely gone from the servers in a couple weeks instead of maybe checking in later to see new content. Let's see if my hypothesis is correct!
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Post by cypherj on Feb 25, 2019 21:42:15 GMT
For sure that's contributing. I have played every bit of content in Anthem(aside from the grind challenges) and canceled my prime subscription. It sucks I won't be able to hop in and try a large storm event in... May? I think? But I got my fifteen bucks worth of game! That is giving them money basically. I would bet a lot of metrics would consider that some form of digital download/sale, so I wouldn't be surprised if they say it was a successful launch despite the mixed reviews. The only way they won't have something positive to say is if they miss earnings this quarter. If EA is anything like my company, we give all the numbers to Marketing and they write up everything, putting the best spin as possible on it. The only time you get a real post mortem is if the company misses earning like EA did last quarter. Then EA had to come out and say, our holiday sales weren't what we expected. We thought Battlefield V would sell this many units, but it only sold this many. We thought Battlefront II would sell this many units, but it only sold this many. Both missed the mark by a million units if I recall correctly.
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Post by alanc9 on Feb 25, 2019 21:42:18 GMT
For sure that's contributing. I have played every bit of content in Anthem(aside from the grind challenges) and canceled my prime subscription. It sucks I won't be able to hop in and try a large storm event in... May? I think? But I got my fifteen bucks worth of game! That is giving them money basically. I would bet a lot of metrics would consider that some form of digital download/sale, so I wouldn't be surprised if they say it was a successful launch despite the mixed reviews. Of course, get Premier/play through Anthem/drop both Premier and Anthem is pretty much the opposite of the business plan for Anthem, which was supposed to be about long-term engagement and monetization of that engagement.
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Post by Blast Processor on Feb 25, 2019 21:56:46 GMT
I'm one of those fanatical collectors that has to have a game disc and box as much as possible. I have purchased some games twice like that before, one digital copy and one in box copy. It is a dying market but for someone like me it's the only way to play, home space be damned. I'm also old fashioned like that as well. Though living in a rural area doesn't help when it comes to downloading 50GB+ games.
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Post by Polka Dot on Feb 25, 2019 22:01:36 GMT
EA expects the game to sell between 5-6 million units, so from where did you took this 4-5M figure samhain444 ? Anyway, physical copies for software are dwindling every year as companies opt more and more for digital releases. I don't read too much into it. "askagamedev" broke down the cost of games and what everyone gets in terms of a slice and they estimated that, if development cost of the game was $120 mil using an original IP (not licenced like Star Wars for example), at $60 it would need to sell 4-5 million units to break even depending on if physical copy, digital copy and if it's through someplace like Origin. Do you remember whether that estimate included engine licensing? Frostbite is essentially in-house. DICE may have some costs associated with supporting BioWare's use of it, but I wouldn't expect BioWare to be dinged the full licensing fee that outside developers would be charged.
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Post by samhain444 on Feb 25, 2019 22:07:15 GMT
That is giving them money basically. I would bet a lot of metrics would consider that some form of digital download/sale, so I wouldn't be surprised if they say it was a successful launch despite the mixed reviews. Of course, get Premier/play through Anthem/drop both Premier and Anthem is pretty much the opposite of the business plan for Anthem, which was supposed to be about long-term engagement and monetization of that engagement. Unless the strategy all along was to leverage the hype surrounding "Anthem" by releasing it, in whatever state they could, into essentially an empty financial quarter. They did the same thing with ME:A. While it still needed about 4-6 months worth of polishing, they released it Q4 2016 with 10 days left in the quarter. Despite the "my face is tired" memes, it sold well and it impacted EA's stock positively. EA got savaged this past quarter and the stock had cratered to $80 per share. After "Apex Legends" released, the stock jumped due to the response but, with it's only source of return being loot boxes, it has yet to be seen how much revenue it generates. "Anthem's" returns will be more tangible upfront and, even if the initial engagement drops with the premier memberships expiring, the quarter numbers through March 31st will likely be pretty good and, if they can continue to listen to the customer and make the improvements they are requesting, they have a shot of turning the longterm prospects of the game around in preparation for the next earnings quarter. As for Q4 2018, we likely won't hear anything until May.
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Post by samhain444 on Feb 25, 2019 22:16:03 GMT
"askagamedev" broke down the cost of games and what everyone gets in terms of a slice and they estimated that, if development cost of the game was $120 mil using an original IP (not licenced like Star Wars for example), at $60 it would need to sell 4-5 million units to break even depending on if physical copy, digital copy and if it's through someplace like Origin. Do you remember whether that estimate included engine licensing? Frostbite is essentially in-house. DICE may have some costs associated with supporting BioWare's use of it, but I wouldn't expect BioWare to be dinged the full licensing fee that outside developers would be charged. It did not specifically address engine licencing...it considered mostly retailers getting 20% off the top and "platform" (Sony, Microsoft, Nintendo, Steam Origin, Google, Apple, etc) taking another 30%. Since BioWare uses essentially an in-house engine and good amount of PC downloads are direct through EA's Origin, I imagine that cuts the cost.
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Post by river82 on Feb 25, 2019 22:49:40 GMT
Of course, get Premier/play through Anthem/drop both Premier and Anthem is pretty much the opposite of the business plan for Anthem, which was supposed to be about long-term engagement and monetization of that engagement. Unless the strategy all along was to leverage the hype surrounding "Anthem" by releasing it, in whatever state they could, into essentially an empty financial quarter. They did the same thing with ME:A. While it still needed about 4-6 months worth of polishing, they released it Q4 2016 with 10 days left in the quarter. Despite the "my face is tired" memes, it sold well and it impacted EA's stock positively. EA got savaged this past quarter and the stock had cratered to $80 per share. After "Apex Legends" released, the stock jumped due to the response but, with it's only source of return being loot boxes, it has yet to be seen how much revenue it generates. "Anthem's" returns will be more tangible upfront and, even if the initial engagement drops with the premier memberships expiring, the quarter numbers through March 31st will likely be pretty good and, if they can continue to listen to the customer and make the improvements they are requesting, they have a shot of turning the longterm prospects of the game around in preparation for the next earnings quarter. As for Q4 2018, we likely won't hear anything until May. According to Superdata (which estimates based on data) Fortnite made nearly 2.5 billion dollars in 2018 (plus or minus *insert random figure*). So if Apex Legends gets anywhere near that ...
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Post by samhain444 on Feb 25, 2019 23:01:53 GMT
Unless the strategy all along was to leverage the hype surrounding "Anthem" by releasing it, in whatever state they could, into essentially an empty financial quarter. They did the same thing with ME:A. While it still needed about 4-6 months worth of polishing, they released it Q4 2016 with 10 days left in the quarter. Despite the "my face is tired" memes, it sold well and it impacted EA's stock positively. EA got savaged this past quarter and the stock had cratered to $80 per share. After "Apex Legends" released, the stock jumped due to the response but, with it's only source of return being loot boxes, it has yet to be seen how much revenue it generates. "Anthem's" returns will be more tangible upfront and, even if the initial engagement drops with the premier memberships expiring, the quarter numbers through March 31st will likely be pretty good and, if they can continue to listen to the customer and make the improvements they are requesting, they have a shot of turning the longterm prospects of the game around in preparation for the next earnings quarter. As for Q4 2018, we likely won't hear anything until May. According to Superdata (which estimates based on data) Fortnite made nearly 2.5 billion dollars in 2018 (plus or minus *insert random figure*). So if Apex Legends gets anywhere near that ... Quite possible...the luxury of the FTP game is that randomized loot boxes are criticized less, although those who have bought the boxes have reported less than stellar results. Still Respawn made the smart play and released it without any lead up thus avoiding the inevitable EA-related toxicity, and it's simplified focus allowed it to do the limited amount of things it focuses on extremely well.
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Post by linksocarina on Feb 25, 2019 23:08:53 GMT
According to Superdata (which estimates based on data) Fortnite made nearly 2.5 billion dollars in 2018 (plus or minus *insert random figure*). So if Apex Legends gets anywhere near that ... Quite possible...the luxury of the FTP game is that randomized loot boxes are criticized less, although those who have bought the boxes have reported less than stellar results. Still Respawn made the smart play and released it without any lead up thus avoiding the inevitable EA-related toxicity, and it's simplified focus allowed it to do the limited amount of things it focuses on extremely well. I will not be shocker if this is their plan for games going forward. Imagine the chaos of a surprise dragon age release...
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