DoctorDAM
N3
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doctordam
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Post by DoctorDAM on Aug 6, 2017 17:31:52 GMT
Does anyone know the answer to whether items are RNG-selected per kit (type) or per remaining card? Always wondered this for ME3, and now MEA. This is best communicated with an example: Say I have only two Common weapons left to max out: Avenger is at 9 (1 card remaining) Katana is at 3 (7 cards remaining) I buy a Basic pack and the hit comes up "weapon" How is the weapon selected, is it: a) 8 cards in the pool, so 1/8 chance I get the remaining Avenger, 7/8 chance I get a Katana. Or 2 kits remaining. 50% chance I get the remaining Avenger, 50% I get a Katana. "b" would lead to a lot more cases of "I have [insert item] at 10 and haven't even gotten a ..."). I have a hunch it is this way, but haven't done the statistics to verify.
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Transcended One
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Games: Mass Effect Trilogy, Dragon Age: Origins, Dragon Age 2, Dragon Age Inquisition, KOTOR, Baldur's Gate, Shattered Steel, Neverwinter Nights, Jade Empire, Mass Effect Andromeda
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cornugon
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Post by Transcended One on Aug 6, 2017 17:42:28 GMT
The chance should be even. You have 50% to either get an Avenger X or a Katana IV.
For some reason the Random Numbers God may decide to max out your Avenger first, and then your Charger before giving you the Katana IV...
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RonnieBlastoff
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Making a grilled cheese sandwhich with bottled blue cheese.
Games: Mass Effect Trilogy, Mass Effect Andromeda
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Post by RonnieBlastoff on Aug 6, 2017 19:09:29 GMT
Random I would say is random...
Just focus on the end result rather than the journey there... or your end up quitting...
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Post by JRandall0308 on Aug 7, 2017 13:07:42 GMT
Anecdotally people believe that you will unlock stuff in the order Characters, Weapons, Mods; i.e. that there is some kind of weighting.
If you have a fresh account and don't mind grinding out a few million credits you can easily test this by spamming Basic packs. Don't buy *anything* (enjoy grinding credits with that Charger I !) and then log what order you get stuff in.
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Post by JRandall0308 on Aug 7, 2017 13:11:14 GMT
On a related note I have always wanted to run this simulation but never had the time or math.
Suppose you have (let's pick a weird number) 17 different 10-sided dice that you can distinguish by color or pattern or whatever. You roll all of them at the same time and the ones that come up 10 (or '0' for you D&D players), you put a tally in that die's record, numbered A through Q.
You keep doing this until you get 10 tallies in a record, at which point you remove that die from the pool.
If you graph the tallies over time, what does it look like? How often do you get weird spikes where (say) die H reaches 10 before anything else reaches 4? How often do you get nice even distributions where dice A through Q all reach 10 within (say) 3 tosses of each other?
The above is basically how the ME3 RNG worked, to my understanding.
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DoctorDAM
N3
Games: Mass Effect Trilogy, Dragon Age: Origins, Dragon Age 2, Dragon Age Inquisition, KOTOR, Mass Effect Andromeda, SWTOR, Anthem
Origin: DoctorDAM, DAMReapers, NSquat
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Post by DoctorDAM on Aug 7, 2017 23:44:01 GMT
Anecdotally people believe that you will unlock stuff in the order Characters, Weapons, Mods; i.e. that there is some kind of weighting. If you have a fresh account and don't mind grinding out a few million credits you can easily test this by spamming Basic packs. Don't buy *anything* (enjoy grinding credits with that Charger I !) and then log what order you get stuff in. I pretty much did that. I maxed out all 5 Common weapons before even my first Common character hit the (then) max of 10. At that point, it was 46 weapons to 43 characters. So drop rate was pretty even for weapons vs characters. But since a lot more character slots, they filled later. Then characters quickly maxed (at 10). At that point, mod drop rate had only been 0.2 per pack. After characters maxed, I'd get a common mod every pack. Uncommons are the reverse in that there are more weapons than characters. So while I have more weapon than character drops (right now 91 to 80), characters hit what would have previously been a max of 10 earlier. So I'd say for Basic and Advanced packs, the weapon/character weighting is near 50/50. Just how many kits to fill changes the perception. BTW, I have 20 rare weapons, 19 rare characters (yeah, I'm early at this), so while too small a sample, at least seems to be pointing to a similar weighting. Lots of folk like to say "RNG is RNG". But the weighting of the drops, and the algos used for them, will have a profound impact on the draw. Knowing them would provide clarity to why you get what you get (to be sure, randomness within a given category will be the final arbiter).
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Post by JRandall0308 on Aug 8, 2017 0:11:28 GMT
I was going to say "Bioware will never reveal the drop weighting" but they have been surprisingly forthcoming about that stuff. (Ex. Bastiaan talking about the 10% chance for a variant weapon to drop, or the previous discussions around the pity timer.)
I will add a question about this to my list.
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Post by mrfuddyduddy on Aug 8, 2017 0:50:48 GMT
The chance should be even. You have 50% to either get an Avenger X or a Katana IV. For some reason the Random Numbers God may decide to max out your Avenger first, and then your Charger before giving you the Katana IV... I swear RNG likes to side with some items over the other. If the odds are equally among everything of the same rarity and type why do I have an Indra Siphon IV when I have some rare's that are still only rank III??? RNG for me loves the Sweeper and Indra lol as I have many variants of both yet don't have any other rare weapons even X yet.
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DoctorDAM
N3
Games: Mass Effect Trilogy, Dragon Age: Origins, Dragon Age 2, Dragon Age Inquisition, KOTOR, Mass Effect Andromeda, SWTOR, Anthem
Origin: DoctorDAM, DAMReapers, NSquat
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Post by DoctorDAM on Aug 8, 2017 1:41:07 GMT
I was going to say "Bioware will never reveal the drop weighting" but they have been surprisingly forthcoming about that stuff. (Ex. Bastiaan talking about the 10% chance for a variant weapon to drop, or the previous discussions around the pity timer.) I will add a question about this to my list. Can you also ask for him to elaborate on the "10% chance for a variant" thing? It isn't very clear, nor does it match my experience (I started tracking when my first Uncommon weapon, Mattock, hit 10). And that's where the algo comes in again... Mattock at 10, others all below 10. a) If it selects by weapon type, I now have a choice of Mattock variant (which can either be 3 items or 1 item, then split into 3) and 9 other UC types. One way it is 1/10 chance of a Mattock variant, the other it is 3/(9+3) = 3/12. So it is either already 10%, or it is 25%. If it selects by cards remaining. Well, then I had 30 Mattock variants vs. remaining 53 UC's for others (since it hasn't unlocked the 9*3*10 variant cards for those). In this case, I have a whopping 36% chance of a Mattock variant! What I got was 3 Mattocks out of 14 UC drops, or 21%. Yeah, I know, tiny sample space. I now have a total of 14 variants out of 46 UC drops, 30%. But it is more clouded as I now have amongst four L10+ UC's to drop from. Bottom line: While it isn't clear what they did, the "10% chance" will mislead you into thinking it is a small chance. Clearly, it isn't. You will get plenty of variant drops before maxing out the others (I've gotten 14, while my six under 10's stand at ranks 4,5,6,7,8,9 respectively). If they lower-weighted it, they did so minimally. We might ask them to recheck their assumptions if they intended to make the variants anywhere near unlikely.
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Post by JRandall0308 on Aug 8, 2017 12:56:06 GMT
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brannigans1ove
N2
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Post by brannigans1ove on Aug 8, 2017 14:44:16 GMT
I was going to say "Bioware will never reveal the drop weighting" but they have been surprisingly forthcoming about that stuff. (Ex. Bastiaan talking about the 10% chance for a variant weapon to drop, or the previous discussions around the pity timer.) I will add a question about this to my list. Since my Indra reached rank X (the only of my rares I've maxed), the only rares that have since dropped have been it's variants (albeit from a small sample size of ~3 packs). Also, I thought they'd taken mods out of the packs, but last night I bought my first 100K pack, and got a mod.
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Post by JRandall0308 on Aug 8, 2017 14:45:20 GMT
The variant mods are not supposed to drop in packs, only via purchase with MF. Would love to see a screenshot or video of a variant mod in a pack!
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