No New Equipment AGAIN?!

shinobiwan
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No New Equipment AGAIN?! Aug 31, 2017 16:02:27 GMT via mobile crashsuit, Kenny Bania, and 4 more like this

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Post by shinobiwan on Aug 31, 2017 16:02:27 GMT

You've got to be kidding me.

New Apex mission crashes for EVERYONE, RNG store, drip feed continues after most have moved on. I should expect it at this point but the incompetence continues to astound me.

Last Edit: Aug 31, 2017 16:04:15 GMT by shinobiwan

jloco11 N2 Posts: 214 Likes: 335 jloco11 inherit Male 7509 0 Nov 9, 2017 17:59:38 GMT 335 jloco11 214 N2 Apr 11, 2017 19:39:19 GMT April 2017 jloco11	No New Equipment AGAIN?! Aug 31, 2017 16:10:07 GMT crashsuit, Evil, and 1 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by jloco11 on Aug 31, 2017 16:10:07 GMT Probability is no longer in our favor with the store. Most people have only 5 pieces of equipment to acquire but 25+ options for RNG each week.

JRandall0308
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No New Equipment AGAIN?! Aug 31, 2017 16:39:27 GMT crashsuit, Evil, and 4 more like this

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Post by JRandall0308 on Aug 31, 2017 16:39:27 GMT

There's roughly a 13% chance of getting that Rare equipment you want, each week. (OK yes, we only really care about Stronghold Package.)

Yes I am going to ask about this. They should force the new ones to drop ASAP.

Yes, I still play ME3MP. No, I don’t know why.

poultrymancer
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No New Equipment AGAIN?! Aug 31, 2017 16:51:31 GMT via mobile crashsuit and modusmoriendi like this

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Post by poultrymancer on Aug 31, 2017 16:51:31 GMT

Aug 31, 2017 16:39:27 GMT JRandall0308 said:

There's roughly a 13% chance of getting that Rare equipment you want, each week. (OK yes, we only really care about Stronghold Package.)

Yes I am going to ask about this. They should force the new ones to drop ASAP.

I have Stronghold. I only care about Structural Ergonomics.

gnperdue N3 Posts: 418 Likes: 566 gnperdue inherit Male 2659 0 Feb 25, 2022 13:58:15 GMT 566 gnperdue 418 N3 Jan 9, 2017 16:26:43 GMT January 2017 gnperdue	No New Equipment AGAIN?! Aug 31, 2017 16:54:50 GMT via mobile crashsuit, poultrymancer, and 1 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by gnperdue on Aug 31, 2017 16:54:50 GMT Structural Ergonomics FTW. I don't mind no equipment, but I was hoping for Gold characters in the store this week to pick up Juggy's with MF.

kaileena_sands
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No New Equipment AGAIN?! Aug 31, 2017 17:05:30 GMT crashsuit, Kenny Bania, and 1 more like this

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Post by kaileena_sands on Aug 31, 2017 17:05:30 GMT

What a load of bullshit, as usual. :rollseyes:

skulker N1 Posts: 4 Likes: 7 skulker inherit 2677 0 Jul 11, 2017 21:05:16 GMT 7 skulker 4 N1 Jan 9, 2017 20:50:18 GMT January 2017 skulker	No New Equipment AGAIN?! Aug 31, 2017 18:48:10 GMT crashsuit likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by skulker on Aug 31, 2017 18:48:10 GMT If my math is correct, the odds of getting new equipment at this point are about 51% per week with the 5 unreleased items. It will drop to 12.5% when we get down to the last piece of equipment.
	Last Edit: Aug 31, 2017 18:48:51 GMT by skulker

JRandall0308
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No New Equipment AGAIN?! Aug 31, 2017 18:52:14 GMT crashsuit likes this

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Post by JRandall0308 on Aug 31, 2017 18:52:14 GMT

Your math is wrong.

17 Uncommons
chance for any particular Uncommon is 1/17, chance to *not* get it is 1 - (1/17) = 0.94
two draws = [1 - (1/17)]^2 ~= 0.89
therefor chance to get any particular Uncommon in two draws is 1 - 0.89 = 0.11

15 Rares
chance for any particular Rare is 1/15, chance to *not* get it is 1 - (1/15) = 0.93
two draws = [1 - (1/15)]^2 ~= 0.87
therefor chance to get any particular Rare in two draws is 1 - 0.87 = 0.13

The chances are independent every week. However we can construct the following table and predict in advance how many weeks it will take to 'guarantee' (99% chance) a particular Rare equipment. The answer: 34 weeks.

Note that every week we DON'T get the Rare we are looking for, we start over at 1 for our next prediction of how long it will take.

big table

SPOILER: Click to show

chance to get the Rare we want = 0.129

week	cumul chance
1	0.129
2	0.241
3	0.339
4	0.424
5	0.498
6	0.563
7	0.619
8	0.668
9	0.711
10	0.748
11	0.781
12	0.809
13	0.834
14	0.855
15	0.874
16	0.890
17	0.904
18	0.917
19	0.927
20	0.937
21	0.945
22	0.952
23	0.958
24	0.964
25	0.968
26	0.972
27	0.976
28	0.979
29	0.982
30	0.984
31	0.986
32	0.988
33	0.989
34	0.991
35	0.992
36	0.993
37	0.994
38	0.995
39	0.995
40	0.996

Last Edit: Aug 31, 2017 18:57:30 GMT by JRandall0308

Yes, I still play ME3MP. No, I don’t know why.

skulker
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No New Equipment AGAIN?! Aug 31, 2017 19:03:15 GMT crashsuit likes this

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Post by skulker on Aug 31, 2017 19:03:15 GMT

I was assuming the split was 16 / 16 uncommon / rare which may be wrong. But your math is wrong as it assumes a) that there is only one uncommon/rare left and

that you can get the same equipment twice in a week.

JRandall0308 N5 Asker of Questions Games: Mass Effect Trilogy, Mass Effect Andromeda XBL Gamertag: JRandall0308 Posts: 4,276 Likes: 11,041 JRandall0308 inherit Asker of Questions Male 833 0 Aug 27, 2024 17:27:08 GMT 11,041 JRandall0308 4,276 N5 Aug 9, 2016 15:11:11 GMT August 2016 Twitter jrandall0308 Mass Effect Trilogy, Mass Effect Andromeda JRandall0308	No New Equipment AGAIN?! Aug 31, 2017 19:08:06 GMT crashsuit and mushroomtagger like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by JRandall0308 on Aug 31, 2017 19:08:06 GMT There is only 1 we care about, each week.
	Yes, I still play ME3MP. No, I don’t know why.

mushroomtagger
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No New Equipment AGAIN?! Sept 4, 2017 8:45:48 GMT crashsuit likes this

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Post by mushroomtagger on Sept 4, 2017 8:45:48 GMT

Aug 31, 2017 19:08:06 GMT JRandall0308 said:

There is only 1 we care about, each week.

It would be the last thing you ever see before they actually fold the MP.

P.S. No. Let's hope not. Bioware is still better than this.

Why no more warp?

Arkhne
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No New Equipment AGAIN?! Sept 4, 2017 11:29:23 GMT crashsuit, Terminator Force, and 2 more like this

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Post by Arkhne on Sept 4, 2017 11:29:23 GMT

Sept 4, 2017 8:45:48 GMT mushroomtagger said:

Aug 31, 2017 19:08:06 GMT JRandall0308 said:

There is only 1 we care about, each week.

It would be the last thing you ever see before they actually fold the MP.

P.S. No. Let's hope not. Bioware is still better than this.

Are you ABSOLUTELY certain of this? Because I am not convinced.

mushroomtagger
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No New Equipment AGAIN?! Sept 5, 2017 1:36:09 GMT crashsuit and Arkhne like this

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Post by mushroomtagger on Sept 5, 2017 1:36:09 GMT

Sept 4, 2017 11:29:23 GMT Arkhne said:

Sept 4, 2017 8:45:48 GMT mushroomtagger said:

It would be the last thing you ever see before they actually fold the MP.

P.S. No. Let's hope not. Bioware is still better than this.

Are you ABSOLUTELY certain of this? Because I am not convinced.

More like a fool's hope. :facepalm:

Why no more warp?

DoctorDAM
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No New Equipment AGAIN?! Sept 9, 2017 2:21:55 GMT crashsuit likes this

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Post by DoctorDAM on Sept 9, 2017 2:21:55 GMT

Aug 31, 2017 19:08:06 GMT JRandall0308 said:

There is only 1 we care about, each week.

[probably approx only two of us care about this stuff, but here goes...]

Not sure what you mean here. We've had weeks where double new Rares or double new Uncommons were released, so it appears there is a chance that both Rares (or Uncommons) can drop in a given week. Which means that there are 2/16 chances to get a new Rare now, and 2/16 at a new Uncommon*

So, right now, 1-(14/16)^2n chance of 1 new Rare dropping in n weeks. Ditto for Uncommon**
So 23.4% chance of a new Rare drop, 23.4% chance of a new UC, 41% chance that we get a new something per week.

34% chance that we would have had what occurred: 2 weeks without a new one (actually, lower since it was 3 UC's at that time, so really 26%).

*

SPOILER: Click to show

* since:
(a) SG amp dropped, there are now 2 unlocked Rares and 2 Uncommons left
(

not sure why you have it as 15/17. I see 16/16. The mislabeled pistol/SMG amp seems to be fixed, and it was always really an Uncommon.

** not adjusted for the fact that 2 can drop in a week, or that the second slot becomes 1/15 if the first had a new one

Last Edit: Sept 9, 2017 2:24:10 GMT by DoctorDAM

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No New Equipment AGAIN?! Sept 9, 2017 21:32:38 GMT crashsuit and Schachmatt123 like this

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Post by Ghost Of N7_SP3CTR3 on Sept 9, 2017 21:32:38 GMT

With a 100% chance of getting fucked...

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JRandall0308
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No New Equipment AGAIN?! Sept 11, 2017 12:53:01 GMT crashsuit likes this

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Post by JRandall0308 on Sept 11, 2017 12:53:01 GMT

No, sorry, DoctorDAM, that is not how the probabilities work. (Unless Bioware has actually fixed their algorithm to FORCE the new items to drop which we don't know for sure.)

There are two slots. There are Rares or Uncommons that can drop in either slot but (as far as we know) the same item cannot drop in both slots. Each week the items that drop are randomly selected from all those available. (Again, unless Bioware has fixed their algorithm.)

Thus the chances of the item you want dropping in Slot 1 are: 1/17 (Rares) or 1/15 (Uncommons)
And the independent chances of the item you want dropping in Slot 2 are: -- the same -- 1/17 (Rares) or 1/15 (Uncommons)

You can't combine both into a single chance to drop.

But you can take the inverse probabilities and work out the chances to get the item you want each week.

Yes, I still play ME3MP. No, I don’t know why.

DoctorDAM
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No New Equipment AGAIN?! Sept 12, 2017 2:43:52 GMT crashsuit likes this

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Post by DoctorDAM on Sept 12, 2017 2:43:52 GMT

Hmm, we're misunderstanding each other perhaps.

Not sure what you mean when you say "the item you want". Are you assuming that you/I only want one particular item, say Stronghold Pkg?
I'm assuming you/I want any of the remaining items that have never been available. There are 4 of those remaining:
2 Rare (Stronghold, Operative), 2 UC (SR Amp, Structural Ergonomics)

Every week BW makes 4 slots: 2 Rare, 2 UC. Let's just focus on the Rares...
1st Rare slot: 16 items to RNG from. 1 is a Stronghold, 1 is an Operative. Thus 2/16 chance of getting a Rare that has never been available.
2nd Rare slot: It is either 2/15, or 1/15 (if Stronghold or Operative was in first slot).
So, chance of no new one is (16-2)/16 * (15-2)/15 = 76%. Chance of at least 1 new one: 24%

Repeat for the UC.

So chance of no new one (neither new Rare nor new UC) = ~76%^2 = 57.5%. Chance of getting at least one new one: 42.5%

Does that make sense? Was the issue just me considering any previously unavailable item, vs. one particular one?

Last Edit: Sept 12, 2017 2:44:20 GMT by DoctorDAM

JRandall0308 N5 Asker of Questions Games: Mass Effect Trilogy, Mass Effect Andromeda XBL Gamertag: JRandall0308 Posts: 4,276 Likes: 11,041 JRandall0308 inherit Asker of Questions Male 833 0 Aug 27, 2024 17:27:08 GMT 11,041 JRandall0308 4,276 N5 Aug 9, 2016 15:11:11 GMT August 2016 Twitter jrandall0308 Mass Effect Trilogy, Mass Effect Andromeda JRandall0308	No New Equipment AGAIN?! Sept 12, 2017 12:22:24 GMT crashsuit and Arkhne like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by JRandall0308 on Sept 12, 2017 12:22:24 GMT I was assuming people only cared about the Stronghold Package.
	Yes, I still play ME3MP. No, I don’t know why.

Paradox949
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No New Equipment AGAIN?! Sept 13, 2017 17:55:01 GMT crashsuit and operatorm1 like this

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Post by Paradox949 on Sept 13, 2017 17:55:01 GMT

Sept 12, 2017 12:22:24 GMT JRandall0308 said:

I was assuming people only cared about the Stronghold Package.

But muh Sniper Rifle Amp. That +5% is the difference between a kill or not sometimes.

shinobiwan
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No New Equipment AGAIN?! Sept 13, 2017 18:09:52 GMT via mobile crashsuit and Arkhne like this

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Post by shinobiwan on Sept 13, 2017 18:09:52 GMT

I thought it was 10% over the next highest sniper buff you could get, which is actually substantial.

Also I think the +20% shields and +70% shield restore delay reduction is better than multicapacitors for juggernauts if they still start recharging during the 1.5s window.

Novakov
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No New Equipment AGAIN?! Sept 14, 2017 16:08:12 GMT crashsuit likes this

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Post by Novakov on Sept 14, 2017 16:08:12 GMT

Just checked the store. Nothing new. I had previously missed Shock Trooper so I grabbed that...

Novakov
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No New Equipment AGAIN?! Sept 14, 2017 16:11:32 GMT crashsuit likes this

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Post by Novakov on Sept 14, 2017 16:11:32 GMT

Also if anyone is curious there is uncommon weapon, rare character, and ultra rare weapon available with Mission Funds. Pricing has not changed.

shinobiwan N4 Posts: 1,171 Likes: 2,286 shinobiwan inherit Male 7836 0 Oct 28, 2021 7:29:55 GMT 2,286 shinobiwan 1,171 N4 Apr 19, 2017 19:26:11 GMT April 2017 shinobiwan	No New Equipment AGAIN?! Sept 14, 2017 16:32:43 GMT via mobile crashsuit and Kenny Bania like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by shinobiwan on Sept 14, 2017 16:32:43 GMT I'm so glad I've moved on to other games. Now I can just laugh at BW for their inane design choices (lol rng store, morons) without really having a stake in the fight.

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No New Equipment AGAIN?! Sept 14, 2017 16:46:25 GMT crashsuit, coldwetn0se, and 2 more like this

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Post by Deleted on Sept 14, 2017 16:46:25 GMT

I actually got enthused that the rare character is in the store finally. Spent my MFs, and feel a tingling need to go do challenges to get more rare chars unlocked. Got Juggernaut as one of the unlocks, kindda curious to see it in game too.

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No New Equipment AGAIN?! Sept 14, 2017 17:03:44 GMT via mobile crashsuit and modusmoriendi like this

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Post by Scathane on Sept 14, 2017 17:03:44 GMT

Sept 14, 2017 16:46:25 GMT @carefull said:

I actually got enthused that the rare character is in the store finally. Spent my MFs, and feel a tingling need to go do challenges to get more rare chars unlocked. Got Juggernaut as one of the unlocks, kindda curious to see it in game too.

Juggernaut absolutely kicks bum! Have you played him yet?

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