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Post by river82 on Oct 19, 2017 21:23:39 GMT
Why are so many people confident that Anthem will flop? I'm not expecting everybody to see half-full glasses everywhere, but all that incessant doomsaying does nobody a service. Just making an educated guess based on the fate of recent looter shooters like Destiny and Division, Yes, reception of Destiny 2 should be quite concerning for Bioware ... or EA more specifically. New Bioware always wants to follow trends rather than do their own thing.
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Post by midnight tea on Oct 19, 2017 21:33:12 GMT
For all its shortcomings Destiny has been a roaring success and from the looks of it Destiny 2 is doing even better, Hmmm, I don't know where you're getting that from. Modern game sale figures are hard to get because of digital platforms, but first month physical sales in America are down 50% when compared with the original over the same timeframe.
"Destiny 2" game sales are coming in significantly below expectations and faltering in comparison to the franchise's first game, according to Wall Street. U.S. physical game sales of "Destiny 2" declined more than 50 percent in the month of September versus the 2014 release of "Destiny" in its first month, according to NPD sell-through data sourced by three Wall Street analyst reports. "The launch month of Destiny 2 was well short of the original iteration by a material amount," Piper Jaffray analyst Michael Olson wrote in a note to clients Friday, citing the NPD data. Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter also called the "Destiny 2" sales "underwhelming" in a Friday report. Pachter added the September NPD "Destiny 2" sales data missed his forecast for the game by 37 percent. The September "Destiny 2" U.S. sales data is similar in magnitude to the 58 percent year-over-year drop during the first week of "Destiny 2" sales in the United Kingdom versus the first title, according to Gfk Chart-Track physical sell-through data revealed on Sept. 11. www.cnbc.com/2017/10/13/activision-destiny-2-physical-game-sales-fell-more-than-50-percent-versus-original.htmlFrom the same article: "To be sure, overall unit sales may be better than the NPD and Gfk Chart-Track sell-through numbers as the data thus far only tracked physical game sales in retail stores not digital game sales.""Analysts said part of the reason for the sales decline may be because it launched on two less console platforms versus the first title. In addition, some gamers may be waiting for the PC version, which launches on Oct. 24. However, the installed bases of Sony Playstation 4 and Microsoft Xbox One consoles increased significantly since 2014, counteracting the game not being released on Xbox 360 and the Playstation 3 this time."In other words, most of this analysis is made based on incomplete data. And TBH, in this day and age, I have no idea why digital sales aren't included - is it because they're harder to track? Also - this: www.rollingstone.com/glixel/news/destiny-2-had-the-biggest-console-launch-week-of-the-year-w503384Given that Destiny 2 shattered all records in terms of copies bought within first week, I am entirely not surprised the numbers have dropped significantly past September.
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Post by river82 on Oct 19, 2017 21:36:11 GMT
And TBH, in this day and age, I have no idea why digital sales aren't included - is it because they're harder to track? Last I heard it was because much too hard to track. NPD figures (IIRC) are obtained through stores themselves, not the publishers. With Digital you have Steam which won't give you any data, and GOG which doesn't give you any data, and Origin which won't share their data ... xD
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Post by midnight tea on Oct 19, 2017 21:41:03 GMT
Just making an educated guess based on the fate of recent looter shooters like Destiny and Division, Yes, reception of Destiny 2 should be quite concerning for Bioware ... or EA more specifically. New Bioware always wants to follow trends rather than do their own thing. A lot of Bioware games were made to follow trends, which includes the whole of Mass Effect and Dragon Age so the point is moot. It's not a 'let's eat a cookie and have a cookie too' situation. One can follow trends and do their own thing. One of my favorite franchises is LotR (a franchise that is also largely responsible for existence of Dragon Age in the first place), and it's a product full of passion, talent and dedication, even though the original reason for its existence was to make money. ESO was made to follow MMO trend of not-distant yore and, after messy launch, it became one of most popular MMOs there is for very good reasons.
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Post by midnight tea on Oct 19, 2017 21:43:47 GMT
And TBH, in this day and age, I have no idea why digital sales aren't included - is it because they're harder to track? Last I heard it was because much too hard to track. NPD figures (IIRC) are obtained through stores themselves, not the publishers. With Digital you have Steam which won't give you any data, and GOG which doesn't give you any data, and Origin which won't share their data ... xD Soon they'd probably have to, because it'd be impossible to track the number of sales. Even today tracking physical copies can be extremely misleading...I mean, just look how GameStop is faring these days.
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Post by alanc9 on Oct 19, 2017 21:48:10 GMT
Hmmm, I don't know where you're getting that from. Modern game sale figures are hard to get because of digital platforms, but first month physical sales in America are down 50% when compared with the original over the same timeframe. "Destiny 2" game sales are coming in significantly below expectations and faltering in comparison to the franchise's first game, according to Wall Street.
U.S. physical game sales of "Destiny 2" declined more than 50 percent in the month of September versus the 2014 release of "Destiny" in its first month, according to NPD sell-through data sourced by three Wall Street analyst reports.
Is any of that 50% due to a general collapse of the physical channel? I don't follow console sales trends.
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Post by midnight tea on Oct 19, 2017 21:58:55 GMT
Hmmm, I don't know where you're getting that from. Modern game sale figures are hard to get because of digital platforms, but first month physical sales in America are down 50% when compared with the original over the same timeframe. "Destiny 2" game sales are coming in significantly below expectations and faltering in comparison to the franchise's first game, according to Wall Street.
U.S. physical game sales of "Destiny 2" declined more than 50 percent in the month of September versus the 2014 release of "Destiny" in its first month, according to NPD sell-through data sourced by three Wall Street analyst reports.
Is any of that 50% due to a general collapse of the physical channel? I don't follow console sales trends. Well, even if we look at GameStop earnings chart that I linked above one can see that physical sales overall declined to a mere shadow compared to what they were in 2014. I wonder when digital distribution platforms will come to an agreement to publish their sales numbers or will they ever do so? Will publishers have their arms twisted to share them? Or will people switch to different ways to estimate game's success, like some sort of trackers that will let people see those logged into game or something? I mean... Discord can tell what kind of game I'm playing, for example and Nvidia can tell what games I have installed.
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Post by majesticjazz on Oct 20, 2017 1:26:53 GMT
Yes, reception of Destiny 2 should be quite concerning for Bioware ... or EA more specifically. New Bioware always wants to follow trends rather than do their own thing. A lot of Bioware games were made to follow trends, which includes the whole of Mass Effect and Dragon Age so the point is moot. It's not a 'let's eat a cookie and have a cookie too' situation. One can follow trends and do their own thing. One of my favorite franchises is LotR (a franchise that is also largely responsible for existence of Dragon Age in the first place), and it's a product full of passion, talent and dedication, even though the original reason for its existence was to make money. ESO was made to follow MMO trend of not-distant yore and, after messy launch, it became one of most popular MMOs there is for very good reasons. Actually DAO wasnt made to follow a trend. It was made to be a spiritual successor to BG. It looked internally for influence. That is different from DAI where they looked externally (Skyrim) for influence.
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Post by Superhik on Oct 20, 2017 1:52:34 GMT
Would be interesting if BW re-purposed brothels into multiplayer hubs. Kind of like those whatsitcalled in Destiny. And then, players could take a role of, uh, establishment employees. Kind of like Multiplayer in Perfect Dark, if I remember right.
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Post by midnight tea on Oct 20, 2017 2:02:38 GMT
A lot of Bioware games were made to follow trends, which includes the whole of Mass Effect and Dragon Age so the point is moot. It's not a 'let's eat a cookie and have a cookie too' situation. One can follow trends and do their own thing. One of my favorite franchises is LotR (a franchise that is also largely responsible for existence of Dragon Age in the first place), and it's a product full of passion, talent and dedication, even though the original reason for its existence was to make money. ESO was made to follow MMO trend of not-distant yore and, after messy launch, it became one of most popular MMOs there is for very good reasons. Actually DAO wasnt made to follow a trend. It was made to be a spiritual successor to BG. It looked internally for influence. That is different from DAI where they looked externally (Skyrim) for influence. DAO being a spiritual successor for Baldur's Gate is irrelevant to the point I was making. It's the success of LotR that has opened up the market for more fantasy movies and games. Hence Bioware could "follow the trends" and follow-up BG with DA in the first place. It's not a coincidence that they began thinking up the game a mere year after tremendous success of Fellowship of the Rings. Heck, the devs don't even hide that they wanted the franchise to be what LotR was for books and then movies. Like I said, following trends and 'doing own thing' are not mutually exclusive. Also - you seem to be assuming that "looking externally" for influence is a bad thing. Or is it yet another thinly veiled attempt to discredit Bioware and you didn't really think it through? Because you know who looked externally for influence too? CDPR. Not only the whole game is based on existing book series, not only Witcher 3 totally looked at Skyrim for influence (from gameplay perspective it's actually more similar to Skyrim than DAI ever was), it looked at Bioware games too. They even got direct help from BW with their first title. Me? I don't care if something is based on trends. I don't care if something is 'influenced externally' or not. It's the result that matters - the 'how it's done' will almost always matter more than 'what is it' for me. People can make fantastic AAA games or blockbuster movies based on what seemed to be the most derivative idea ever and crappy indie titles where "the author follows his/her vision to a T" and vice versa. You don't have to look far to find those, or anything in between.
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Post by majesticjazz on Oct 20, 2017 2:14:20 GMT
Actually DAO wasnt made to follow a trend. It was made to be a spiritual successor to BG. It looked internally for influence. That is different from DAI where they looked externally (Skyrim) for influence. DAO being a spiritual successor for Baldur's Gate is irrelevant to the point I was making. It's the success of LotR that has opened up the market for more fantasy movies and games. Hence Bioware could "follow the trends" and follow-up BG with DA in the first place. It's not a coincidence that they began thinking up the game a mere year after tremendous success of Fellowship of the Rings. Heck, the devs don't even hide that they wanted the franchise to be what LotR was for books and then movies. Like I said, following trends and 'doing own thing' are not mutually exclusive. Also - you seem to be assuming that "looking externally" for influence is a bad thing. Or is it yet another thinly veiled attempt to discredit Bioware and you didn't really think it through? Because you know who looked externally for influence too? CDPR. Not only the whole game is based on existing book series, not only Witcher 3 totally looked at Skyrim for influence (from gameplay perspective it's actually more similar to Skyrim than DAI ever was), it looked at Bioware games too. They even got direct help from BW with their first title. Me? I don't care if something is based on trends. I don't care if something is 'influenced externally' or not. It's the result that matters - the 'how it's done' will almost always matter more than 'what is it' for me. People can make fantastic AAA games or blockbuster movies based on what seemed to be the most derivative idea ever and crappy indie titles where "the author follows his/her vision to a T" and vice versa. You don't have to look far to find those, or anything in between. Baldur's Gate came out in 1998....Baldur's Gate 2 came out in 2000....LOTR (film) came out in 2001.
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Post by midnight tea on Oct 20, 2017 2:19:17 GMT
Baldur's Gate came out in 1998....LOTR (film) came out in 2001. You're not a very careful reader, are you? I said that LotR allowed BW to follow-up BG with DA, not that LotR is responsible for BG So, very sorry... you tried to 'gotcha' me and only shot yourself in the foot. Again.
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Post by midnight tea on Oct 20, 2017 2:42:19 GMT
Baldur's Gate came out in 1998....Baldur's Gate 2 came out in 2000....LOTR (film) came out in 2001. Oh, and to follow-up on the whole 'internal/external inspiration' nonsense... Dragon Age Origins basically copied its entire combat system from Final Fantasy 12. Something Mike Laidlaw was entirely transparent about in his recent streams.
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Post by majesticjazz on Oct 20, 2017 2:55:08 GMT
Baldur's Gate came out in 1998....LOTR (film) came out in 2001. You're not a very careful reader, are you? I said that LotR allowed BW to follow-up BG with DA, not that LotR is responsible for BG So, very sorry... you tried to 'gotcha' me and only shot yourself in the foot. Again. I am going on what Bioware said, which was that DAO was a spiritual successor to BG. Please provide where Bioware acknowledged that LOTR was a driving factor behind DAO. Also outside of SW, KOTOR was influenced by Neverwinter Knights.
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Post by pessimistpanda on Oct 20, 2017 2:55:29 GMT
Baldur's Gate came out in 1998....Baldur's Gate 2 came out in 2000....LOTR (film) came out in 2001. Oh, and to follow-up on the whole 'internal/external inspiration' nonsense... Dragon Age Origins basically copied its entire combat system from Final Fantasy 12. Something Mike Laidlaw was entirely transparent about in his recent streams. Lol, for some reason I thought I was the only one who noticed that.
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Post by pessimistpanda on Oct 20, 2017 2:56:48 GMT
LOTR has been the "driving factor" for all Fantasy media since it was written. That's why everything is so homogenous and bland.
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Post by majesticjazz on Oct 20, 2017 3:13:17 GMT
LOTR has been the "driving factor" for all Fantasy media since it was written. That's why everything is so homogenous and bland. There is a clear difference between Zelda, Witcher, and LOTR....
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Post by majesticjazz on Oct 20, 2017 3:30:45 GMT
Oh, and I dont need to discredit Bioware, EA is already doing that. You just refuse to see that just like you probably refused to see that MEA would not get SP DLC.
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Post by pessimistpanda on Oct 20, 2017 3:35:20 GMT
LOTR has been the "driving factor" for all Fantasy media since it was written. That's why everything is so homogenous and bland. There is a clear difference between Zelda, Witcher, and LOTR.... Lol. You got me. Those are the only three fantasy IPs in the world.
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Post by majesticjazz on Oct 20, 2017 3:48:29 GMT
There is a clear difference between Zelda, Witcher, and LOTR.... Lol. You got me. Those are the only three fantasy IPs in the world. Clearly they are not but I picked those 2 games to show that there can be a wide variance of Fantasy video games.
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Post by pessimistpanda on Oct 20, 2017 3:49:48 GMT
Lol. You got me. Those are the only three fantasy IPs in the world. Clearly they are not but it does show that there can be a wide variance of Fantasy video games. Yeah, 30 Flavours of elf and dwarf. :/
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Post by midnight tea on Oct 20, 2017 3:51:50 GMT
You're not a very careful reader, are you? I said that LotR allowed BW to follow-up BG with DA, not that LotR is responsible for BG So, very sorry... you tried to 'gotcha' me and only shot yourself in the foot. Again. I am going on what Bioware said, which was that DAO was a spiritual successor to BG. Please provide where Bioware acknowledged that LOTR was a driving factor behind DAO. Also outside of SW, KOTOR was influenced by Neverwinter Knights. There seems to be some fundamental misunderstanding that disallows you from getting that "spiritual successor" doesn't mean "this game led to the other game existing". That's not even what the term means. It means something that shares themes or style or elements or some other things that makes it a successor on creative level, not "something that guaranteed a more-or-less sequel". "Baldur's Gate II" was great success for BW, but it never did for fantasy titles across different mediums what LotR movie did - it made fantasy mainstream and fantasy titles desirable. It was a trendsetter, like the book it was based on was for fantasy genre as a whole. David Gaider did say (in interview for VGS) that before Lord of the Rings came out the idea that traditional fantasy could have commercial weight wasn't really a thing. He should know - Baldur's Gate II success didn't save their previous publisher from bankruptcy after all. Like you said - Baldur's Gate II is a 1998 title. And they began developing Dragon Age in 2002, a year after first LotR movie. I'm also fairly sure that success of the whole trilogy allowed them to justify DA's long and choppy development.
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Post by midnight tea on Oct 20, 2017 4:08:18 GMT
Oh, and I dont need to discredit Bioware, EA is already doing that. You just refuse to see that just like you probably refused to see that MEA would not get SP DLC. Oh MJ, you really have to stop assuming things you have no basis in facts for. I don't recall expressing anything about MEA DLC and was mostly in 'we shall see what happens' mode, so no - I didn't do anything you so frivolously assume I am doing. But please - keep throwing those stones from your glass house, I'm sure all the validation you take from deeming everyone you disagree with as vapid fanboys who live on unwarranted optimism will take you very far in life.
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Post by majesticjazz on Oct 20, 2017 4:12:13 GMT
Oh, and I dont need to discredit Bioware, EA is already doing that. You just refuse to see that just like you probably refused to see that MEA would not get SP DLC. Oh MJ, you really have to stop assuming things you have no basis in facts for. I don't recall expressing anything about MEA DLC and was mostly in 'we shall see what happens' mode, so no - I didn't do anything you so frivolously assume I am doing. But please - keep throwing those stones from your glass house, I'm sure all the validation you take from deeming everyone you disagree with as vapid fanboys who live on unwarranted optimism will take you very far in life. Nice speech but EA is still discrediting Bioware just as it has done Visceral, Maxis, Pandemic, Bioware Montreal etc....
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Post by midnight tea on Oct 20, 2017 4:13:04 GMT
Oh, and to follow-up on the whole 'internal/external inspiration' nonsense... Dragon Age Origins basically copied its entire combat system from Final Fantasy 12. Something Mike Laidlaw was entirely transparent about in his recent streams. Lol, for some reason I thought I was the only one who noticed that. Heheh, they're not even hiding that. I'm not sure how many times Mike underlined on his stream that FF12's combat is what DAO's is based on, but I'm fairly certain it can be turned into a drinking game.
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