[Day/Night Game] Trouble on the Citadel - round "LE Part 2: Why Cerberus Is Right For You"

1. OG: I votded for Reed.

2. While doing so, I said this:

Dragon: you are right, I did protect Moonae, because I thought, she was in more danger than me.
I also thought, if Mordin is in play, I would get a protection or gerva would, since both of us are confirmed heroes. So if Cati really claims Mordin, He must be evil. I don't think, he missed the clues.

Okay, further thoughts. I think Moonae could be hinting that she has received a protection from Mordin. If that is the case then at least one of the remaining players is Mordin and since Cati's hint would fit that role, I am still inclined towards him. If Mordin is evil then would he give protection to Moonae? It is possible since it would make Moon less likely to investigate him whilst making us all think he must be good. The worrying part there is that it is almost certain he would have given one of his protections to his fellow spy, so it would be in our interests to try and get rid of them first as they would be the only one who could use it for the double elimination. If Cati is a hero, then it doesn't matter which of the other two we vote for because both of them are spies. I am inclined to feel that Cati is a spy whatever his identity might be. So it is just a matter of deciding who his ally might be.

Cati voted for Romice but that could be a bluff in order to make us think that Reed is his accomplice. It is a bit of a risk but if you think about it, if we vote off Reed as a hero, then there are two spies left, putting them in a stronger position, and if we vote off Romice as a spy, then Cati looks more innocent having voted for her. If Cati is simply voting for Romice to get rid of a hero, then that means Reed and Cati are the spies and they both survive the vote.

I am going to take a little longer to vote whilst I analyse the various permutations if we get it wrong.

Oh, I found it logical and fun! I'm absolutely okay with your vote... ofc.

I still think catilina and reed are probably the spies, but I'd like to run through these scenarios and see if I'm missing anything.

First, the votes in order:
Moon voted for reed
Reed voted for romice
Romice voted for reed
Catilina voted for romice
Gervaise voted for romice


The suspicious votes are:
reed's - he ruled out everyone but catilina and romice as spies, but didn't vote for one of them until called on it later. If you've solid reason to believe you've found both spies, why not celebrate this fact? Advertise it? Start the vote? You couldn't possibly be wrong if this were the case.
catilina's - he ruled out everyone but romice and reed as spies, yet cast a vote for romice instead of reed, when reed was ahead. If the player with the most votes is one you believe to be a spy, why would you NOT vote for that person? Why mess with the majority vote that way?


Situation 1: Catilina and reed are spies. Both are voting for romice, and both voted suspiciously for people who claim to have narrowed down the spy candidates to two. If catilina is Mordin, then it is a bit odd that he would have given moon protection. The protection could have been given on an earlier night, before Moon hinted, or it could have been given to help keep suspicion off himself. In this case, we can be certain that reed got a device from Mordin, and Liara or no Liara, we can expect a double elimination tonight.

Situation 2: Catilina and romice are spies. A little odd since Catilina put an extra vote on his accomplice, who was not in the lead at the time. This could be a last-minute misdirection. Again, if catilina is Mordin, we can expect a double elimination tonight.

Situation 3: Reed and romice are spies. They are currently voting for each other, which "cancels out" both votes in a way. Could be a clever trick, and maybe explains why romice is being so quiet. Is she evil Kasumi, maybe? In this scenario, if cati is Mordin, then it is possible that both spies received protection devices. We could face double elimination no matter which one we get rid of.


No matter which situation, though, I agree that voting for catilina doesn't make sense. In 1 and 2, we want to eliminate the spy with the protection ability, which won't be catilina. That means deciding between romice and reed. If situation 3 is accurate, then we catch a spy either way. It seems to me we are then tasked with deciding which situation out of #1 or 2 seems more likely to be true.


Worst case scenario is this:
We eliminate a hero this day cycle, leaving us with 3 heroes and 2 spies.
The spies do a double elimination during the night cycle, leaving 1 hero and 2 spies.
We lose, never to vote again.

Further thoughts. We have 3 role hints, only one of which is explicit enough to say with certainty who that person is, Romice = Wrex.

If true then obviously if we vote her off she can take someone with her. If good that means one of the spies, if evil that means one of the heroes. So it is a good role to hint to scare us off. However, that still means one of the other people voting for her is a spy. Also if Romice is Wrex then one of the others must be Kasumi.

Following this logic then that has to be Reed, since we have been assuming Catilina to be Mordin, semi-confirmed by Moonae. So as Moonae suggested, the list of spies is thus reduced to Reed and Romice as Mordin is good. It would thus be in our interests for me to switch my vote to Reed.

Alternatively, Romice is lying about being Wrex and is really Kasumi, so Reed could potentially be innocent and Catilina the spy. There are reasons why it wouldn't harm the spies for Mordin to have given Moonae a protection, bearing in mind that he would also have given one to his fellow spy, who can then perform a double elimination avoiding Moon altogether. However, this can only happen if Romice survives the vote, so an evil Mordin would surely vote for Reed? As Dragon pointed out, it would not seem suspicious for an innocent person to have done so as both are equally guilty in his eyes. So either Romice is not the other spy or Mordin is innocent. Either way Reed is the other spy. That suggests it would still be in our interests for me to switch my vote to Reed.

However, Romice did leave it very late to hint at that role. It could have been a clever ploy, knowing that no one was left who could challenge it and it would make me likely to change my vote. So I will reserve the right to still change my vote before voting closes but wish to wait and see what other people do. In particular my fellow voters for Romice.

Further thoughts. Everything really hinges on whether we believe Romice's last minute hint of identity. I agree that previous defences do not really seem to have pointed that way and it is convenient to have come up with it at this late stage because it is a role we would be wary of voting off. This is why I wonder if it was done to get me to back off and change my vote because Romice is really Kasumi.

If Romice is a hero, then I assume she is telling the truth about Wrex and there is nothing to worry about. Romice knows who the spies are and takes one of them out when she goes, preferably Reed because of the problem of a double elimination overnight if Mordin gave him a protection.

If Romice is a spy and working with Reed, unless an innocent Mordin gave Reed a protection by mistake, voting off Romice, as Wrex or Kasumi, should not impact too badly on the heroes. Worst case scenario, if Romice is Wrex and Reed was given the protection, is a tie-breaker next round.

If Romice is a spy and working with an evil Mordin then Romice is Kasumi (cannot be Wrex because we know Kasumi is in play and evil) and the problem of him giving her a protection is removed when we vote her off.

So, having thought this through further, it would be better for the heroes for me to leave my vote exactly where it is.

If fellow heroes can find a fault with my logic, please let me know asap.

Okay, thoughts:

I'm confident Mordin is in the game. And as everyone keeps saying about my claim: if Cati isn't Mordin, then the real Mordin should have said something. Thus, I am certain that Cati is Mordin. But is he good or evil?

I got a protection device after giving my hint, which makes sense if Mordin is good. If Mordin is evil, however, it... could still make sense as a way to buy my trust. Which kinda worked.

Instead, I want to analyze this from to angles. First, I wanna look at possible villain pairs based on current role claims (and my belief that Cati's is genuine). Second, I want to look at scenarios we're we vote out the wrong person.

First:

1. Romice is Evil Wrex and Catilina is Evil Mordin (Reed is EDI)
Not possible because we know Evil Kasumi exists.

2. Romice is Evil Kasumi and Catilina is Evil Mordin (Reed is EDI)
In this scenario it makes sense to vote for Romice, since she almost certainly has a protection device/double elimination. +1 Romice

3. Romice is Evil Wrex and Reed is Evil EDI (Catilina is Mordin)
Not possible because we know Evil Kasumi exists.

4. Romice is Evil Wrex and Reed is Evil Kasumi (Catilina is Mordin)
In this scenario I'd say it's best to vote for Reed. Both could potentially have protection devices so they are equally as dangerous at night, but voting for evil wrex costs us a hero. +1 Reed

5. Romice is Evil Kasumi and Reed is Evil EDI (Catilina is Mordin)
A toss up really. Neither are dangerous to vote for so it depends on if both or just one (and if so which one) has protection devices.


6. Reed is Evil EDI and Catilina is Evil Mordin (Romice is Wrex)
Not possible because Evil Kasumi exists.

7. Reed is Evil Kasumi and Catilina is Evil Mordin (Romice is Wrex)
Same as with option 2. Vote for Reed to get rid of double elimination. +1 Reed

So 2 for Reed and 1 for Romice.

Second:
Of course, there's the issue of 'what if we get it wrong?'
If we vote Reed and he turns out to be a hero then we will go into the night with 3 Heroes and 2 Villains. There will definitely be a double elimination in this case which means the villains win.

If we vote Romice and she turns out to be a hero then presumably we will go into the night with 3 Heroes and 1 Villain because Romice would take 1 with her. There would be no double elimination assuming Romice picks the right target. So Heroes win.

Looking at this it would make sense to vote for Romice. But what if we combine the first and second thought?

If we vote for Romice and she turns out to be Evil Wrex she will take out a hero, so night would start with 3 heroes and 1 villain. This villain has to be Reed as Evil Kasumi (see above). It then becomes a question of 'do we think good Mordin gave Reed a protection device?' If yes, there will be a double elimination leading to a tiebreaker situation. If no, then heroes win.

If we vote for Romice and she turns out to be Evil Kasumi night will start with 4 heroes and 1 villain. At that point it doesn't matter if the remaining spy has a protection device or not, because there'd still be at least 2 heroes alive come morning, letting the heroes win.

So, a long winded way of saying the same thing Gervaise already pointed out: it makes more sense to vote for Romice. If we're right, we're right; if we're wrong then it actually benefits us.

Romice, I'm sorry I'm recommending we sacrifice you if you are a hero but the thing is we do need to act as a team.

My big fear originally was voting off a hero because of that spectre of a double elimination. Even if I blocked the spies the first night, we could only vote off one spy the following day, so even without Mordin's ticket there would be a problem, (because of the double elimination from my ability the following night) but with it the spies would wipe us out. However, if you are Wrex then that just won't happen.

Firstly, you can take the only person with you, Reed, who can possibly have the double elimination ticket. Mordin cannot use it himself. It is like any other ability, once the person who has it is gone, it can no longer be used.

Secondly, do not forget I am Javik and have yet to use my ability, so with only one spy left to eliminate and that spy positively identified, there is no risk in me using it. Then the following day the heroes vote off the final spy.

Of course, if you are spy (and Wrex) then it is likely I am the person you will take with you but I have already explained the likely outcome then and it puts the odds in favour of the heroes. So to me that is an acceptable risk.

So just to reiterate for the benefit of other heroes, eliminating Wrex, whether hero or not, actually reduces the risk of having a double elimination. This would not be the case in voting out anyone else who then proves to be a hero.