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Post by bronamath1 on Mar 31, 2017 18:34:58 GMT
I was looking through threads to see if others have noticed this as well. Most discussion is about removing negative traits. Something I've noticed is that to date I've had a 90% chance on 3 missions, 92% one 2 and 85% on 3 that I've failed. I'm not doing these so often that the percentages are lining up.
I have a negative trait on both my teams but it's balanced out by the positive traits plus I thought the percentage takes that all into consideration. When I'm a level 17 and I'm failing a bronze mission that has a 92% success rate, then it better be successful the next 9 times, which it hasn't.
Are you guys noticing the same inconsistency with the chance of success percentage?
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Post by rolenka on Mar 31, 2017 18:37:53 GMT
Every game has players wondering if the RNG is broken. I haven't noticed any problems.
Have people discovered a way to remove negative traits? I thought the only way was to retire them and hope a new team does better.
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Post by bronamath1 on Mar 31, 2017 18:44:14 GMT
Every game has players wondering if the RNG is broken. I haven't noticed any problems. Have people discovered a way to remove negative traits? I thought the only way was to retire them and hope a new team does better. I don't think there is a way to remove negative traits, just retire them like you said. That said, I don't see why you'd retire them at all since as I mentioned, you can clearly fail pretty regularly at 90% so there really isn't a great way to avoid negative traits. I'd keep using someone at level 20 even if they have negative traits. Why not take the kamikaze approach and send them on everything. If they get negative traits, so be it.
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Post by hieroglyph on Mar 31, 2017 18:45:16 GMT
The odds of success are very broken. I'd say I'm closer to 70% despite having 90%+ listed most of the time. What's sad is that I ran a 66% Gold, failed and got my first negative trait. What was the point of protecting my squad if a single favorable mission fail hurts me this much? Like most of MEA, strike teams are poorly designed.
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Post by bronamath1 on Mar 31, 2017 18:52:49 GMT
The odds of success are very broken. I'd say I'm closer to 70% despite having 90%+ listed most of the time. What's sad is that I ran a 66% Gold, failed and got my first negative trait. What was the point of protecting my squad if a single favorable mission fail hurts me this much? Like most of MEA, strike teams are poorly designed. While that's disappointing to hear, I'm also glad you said it because I noticed the exact same thing. The whole negative trait thing is weird because you really don't have control to avoid it even when you baby your character with only high success rate missions. Dang...so it's broke. I'm just going to say the heck with it and send them on gold and if they fail, oh well.
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Post by Zerfidius on Mar 31, 2017 19:09:55 GMT
While it's possible there is a bug with mission success, it's much much more likely that players have no clue how the RNG and probabilities actually work. Given the challenges with explaining it to tin hat doubters with no investment in learning the truth, I'm going to take the easier route and just shake my head in a patronizing manner.
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Post by hieroglyph on Mar 31, 2017 19:15:30 GMT
While it's possible there is a bug with mission success, it's much much more likely that players have no clue how the RNG and probabilities actually work. Given the challenges with explaining it to tin hat doubters with no investment in learning the truth, I'm going to take the easier route and just shake my head in a patronizing manner. Feel free to explain how a level 20 team with 5 positive traits and no negative ones fails a 90%+ mission at least twice for every 10 attempts. I mean there are only 3 missions per difficulty per day so it's not that hard to track your actual success rates. So either the displayed success rates are wrong, or there is a minimum failure rate which is not being displayed.
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Post by bjorndadwarf on Mar 31, 2017 20:00:00 GMT
While it's possible there is a bug with mission success, it's much much more likely that players have no clue how the RNG and probabilities actually work. Given the challenges with explaining it to tin hat doubters with no investment in learning the truth, I'm going to take the easier route and just shake my head in a patronizing manner. Feel free to explain how a level 20 team with 5 positive traits and no negative ones fails a 90%+ mission at least twice for every 10 attempts. I mean there are only 3 missions per difficulty per day so it's not that hard to track your actual success rates. So either the displayed success rates are wrong, or there is a minimum failure rate which is not being displayed. You would need hundreds out outcomes before you could even begin to draw any serious conclusions about whether or not the listed success rate is close to accurate. And preferably, you'd want thousands or 10s of thousands. Running an experiment where there's a 10 percent failure rate, with the action run thousands of times, you're going to have plenty of moments where you fail 2 out of 10 times, or twice in a row, or 3 out of 5 times even. As for picking up negative traits, they dont' seem to particularly matter in the long run. Run 2 teams as your Bronze/Silver teams with consistent 92+ percent chances, and then have 1 team who only runs Golds. They'll fail, a lot, but even with 5 negative traits it's rare for them to have less than a 29 percent chance, and I've still seen them have a 50 percent chance on favorable Golds. I might add a fourth team eventually to also run Golds, as I think I'm missing getting a few of them done, but I don't think it's particularly necessary.
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Post by bronamath1 on Mar 31, 2017 20:02:44 GMT
While it's possible there is a bug with mission success, it's much much more likely that players have no clue how the RNG and probabilities actually work. Given the challenges with explaining it to tin hat doubters with no investment in learning the truth, I'm going to take the easier route and just shake my head in a patronizing manner. Feel free to explain how a level 20 team with 5 positive traits and no negative ones fails a 90%+ mission at least twice for every 10 attempts. I mean there are only 3 missions per difficulty per day so it's not that hard to track your actual success rates. So either the displayed success rates are wrong, or there is a minimum failure rate which is not being displayed. Agreed. I'd love to hear an explanation from Zerfidius...I'm starting this thread in an effort to learn the truth but as hieroglyph mentioned, if it says 90%+ and you still fail more than 10% of the time, then I don't think my math is the problem. Even with negative traits, isn't the success rate percentage supposed to take that into account?
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Post by bjorndadwarf on Mar 31, 2017 20:06:23 GMT
Feel free to explain how a level 20 team with 5 positive traits and no negative ones fails a 90%+ mission at least twice for every 10 attempts. I mean there are only 3 missions per difficulty per day so it's not that hard to track your actual success rates. So either the displayed success rates are wrong, or there is a minimum failure rate which is not being displayed. Agreed. I'd love to hear an explanation from Zerfidius...I'm starting this thread in an effort to learn the truth but as hieroglyph mentioned, if it says 90%+ and you still fail more than 10% of the time, then I don't think my math is the problem. Even with negative traits, isn't the success rate percentage supposed to take that into account? Tonight, take a coin, and flip it 1,000 times. Count how many times you get 3 or 4 of the same side in a row. That's the answer. Clustering of success/failure is expected in large data sets with random outcomes.
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Post by bronamath1 on Mar 31, 2017 20:10:55 GMT
Feel free to explain how a level 20 team with 5 positive traits and no negative ones fails a 90%+ mission at least twice for every 10 attempts. I mean there are only 3 missions per difficulty per day so it's not that hard to track your actual success rates. So either the displayed success rates are wrong, or there is a minimum failure rate which is not being displayed. You would need hundreds out outcomes before you could even begin to draw any serious conclusions about whether or not the listed success rate is close to accurate. And preferably, you'd want thousands or 10s of thousands. Running an experiment where there's a 10 percent failure rate, with the action run thousands of times, you're going to have plenty of moments where you fail 2 out of 10 times, or twice in a row, or 3 out of 5 times even. As for picking up negative traits, they dont' seem to particularly matter in the long run. Run 2 teams as your Bronze/Silver teams with consistent 92+ percent chances, and then have 1 team who only runs Golds. They'll fail, a lot, but even with 5 negative traits it's rare for them to have less than a 29 percent chance, and I've still seen them have a 50 percent chance on favorable Golds. I might add a fourth team eventually to also run Golds, as I think I'm missing getting a few of them done, but I don't think it's particularly necessary. Admittedly, I'm replying too much to my own thread but to say that you need thousands of tests to say if it's accurate is a bit unnecessary. Let me put it another way, the game was just released and Bioware knows there are bugs. I've played other games like Assassin's Creed where you can send your assassins off on missions in a very similar fashion with various success rates and I never ran into this issue. There's no question the odds aren't as high as some of them indicate. I fail a mission every day and have 90%+ on every mission I try. What you say about probability is true but that said, if I had 2 fails in a row, which already happened, then where are the 20 in a row success streak as well? I'm failing at around a 35% rate for 90%+ missions.
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Post by bacon4breakfast on Mar 31, 2017 20:23:05 GMT
In psychology and cognitive science, confirmation bias (or confirmatory bias) is a tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions, leading to statistical errors.
My advice is to not play XCOM. You don't know rage until you miss multiple 95% shots in a row.
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Post by dcihnagv3z on Mar 31, 2017 20:30:05 GMT
Every game has players wondering if the RNG is broken. I haven't noticed any problems. Have people discovered a way to remove negative traits? I thought the only way was to retire them and hope a new team does better. I think the only way is to retire. My first two teams I decided to make my suicide squad, they just die repeatedly attempting gold, but still earn me an occasional success. I figure grinding gold missions is better then nothing. My next pair of teams I am slowly working through only bronze and silver missions until they are at a high level and have some equipment. I want these new teams to have a high success rate on gold. After which point, I will retire the suicide squad, and begin two more teams for bronze and silver. As for the RNG. I have won some missions with a 10% chance of success, and lost some with a 90% chance of success. RNG... it is what it is.
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Post by hieroglyph on Mar 31, 2017 21:54:21 GMT
Agreed. I'd love to hear an explanation from Zerfidius...I'm starting this thread in an effort to learn the truth but as hieroglyph mentioned, if it says 90%+ and you still fail more than 10% of the time, then I don't think my math is the problem. Even with negative traits, isn't the success rate percentage supposed to take that into account? Tonight, take a coin, and flip it 1,000 times. Count how many times you get 3 or 4 of the same side in a row. That's the answer. Clustering of success/failure is expected in large data sets with random outcomes. Which is fair in a real-world setting but not when an algorithm controls the randomness. Once an algorithm controls everything it stops being random entirely which is why the best RNG engines use something entirely unrelated like air temperature to provide the randomness. Again,I'm not saying my evidence is conclusive but I am noting that I failed 3 of 4 90%+ missions and all 3 66% missions in the same day. I thought that was significant enough to note in another thread a few days ago and while my odds have improved they are not meeting the listed success chances even today. So either I have extremely bad RNG or something is not working properly or the relevant information is not being displayed properly. Based on experience I would say that it is probably a flaw with the RNG and not just bad luck.
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Post by rolenka on Mar 31, 2017 21:57:12 GMT
Every game has players wondering if the RNG is broken. I haven't noticed any problems. Have people discovered a way to remove negative traits? I thought the only way was to retire them and hope a new team does better. I don't think there is a way to remove negative traits, just retire them like you said. That said, I don't see why you'd retire them at all since as I mentioned, you can clearly fail pretty regularly at 90% so there really isn't a great way to avoid negative traits. I'd keep using someone at level 20 even if they have negative traits. Why not take the kamikaze approach and send them on everything. If they get negative traits, so be it. My goal is to equip them one day so odds are 100%.
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Post by book on Mar 31, 2017 22:36:22 GMT
If everyone on the forum posted when a 90 % succeded, and everyone when they failed, you'd see a 9-1 ratio of posts (or around there).
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Post by bjorndadwarf on Mar 31, 2017 22:48:42 GMT
I don't think there is a way to remove negative traits, just retire them like you said. That said, I don't see why you'd retire them at all since as I mentioned, you can clearly fail pretty regularly at 90% so there really isn't a great way to avoid negative traits. I'd keep using someone at level 20 even if they have negative traits. Why not take the kamikaze approach and send them on everything. If they get negative traits, so be it. My goal is to equip them one day so odds are 100%. Pretty sure it isn't possible. There's either a hard cap of chance of success, or a diminishing rate of returns on bonuses that functionally creates a cap. I've yet to see anything over 94/95, no matter how favorable the traits are for the team.
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Post by misguidedworm7 on Mar 31, 2017 22:52:11 GMT
I am sorry, I stole all your luck, haven't failed a mission in 4 days, even the 2%er with a green team.
Random is random, sometimes you lose, AND I WIN
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Post by Zerfidius on Apr 1, 2017 0:18:18 GMT
Tonight, take a coin, and flip it 1,000 times. Count how many times you get 3 or 4 of the same side in a row. That's the answer. Clustering of success/failure is expected in large data sets with random outcomes. Which is fair in a real-world setting but not when an algorithm controls the randomness. Once an algorithm controls everything it stops being random entirely which is why the best RNG engines use something entirely unrelated like air temperature to provide the randomness. Again,I'm not saying my evidence is conclusive but I am noting that I failed 3 of 4 90%+ missions and all 3 66% missions in the same day. I thought that was significant enough to note in another thread a few days ago and while my odds have improved they are not meeting the listed success chances even today. So either I have extremely bad RNG or something is not working properly or the relevant information is not being displayed properly. Based on experience I would say that it is probably a flaw with the RNG and not just bad luck. Other people are doing a good job explaining what I was getting at. But I've just got to jump in here and point out that your explanation of randomness as applied to real world vs an artificial scenario is not correct. Probabilities applied to real-world models are more likely to be incorrect because they are based on assumptions and it's very hard to get all of the assumptions correct in a real-world model. Even a coin flip is probably going to end up more on heads or tails over the long haul depending on the coin you use because of the weight of the coin and the distribution of the weight. A probability generated for an artificial model living entirely within a computer is much more likely to end up correct despite the supposed problems with random number generators because all of the variables have been applied to the probability and incorporated into the estimate in this case the chance of success of the mission) get at the end. The exception to this is if the person generating the model is lying to you or has an made a significant error which is certainly possible but unlikely.
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Post by hieroglyph on Apr 1, 2017 0:43:51 GMT
This of course assumes the algorithm is correct and covers all possible values evenly, which is why I specifically noted that there may be hidden variables such as a minimum failure rate. Again, something is not working properly and while I do not have the information to prove this claim I am not ignorant to the information provided either.
I mean a 94% success rate means that I should fail roughly 1 in 20 on average. And while you can certainly roll a 20-sided die on the same number multiple times in a row the probability is very rare, such that when it does occur it is the exception or subject to being manipulated. In this case I'd guess that something is certainly being manipulated, either through erroneous code or due to hidden values.
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Post by s0ulbearer on Apr 1, 2017 0:58:47 GMT
RNG isn't a complicated concept.
Do you know how many 20% golds I've succeeded in?
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Post by s0ulbearer on Apr 1, 2017 1:03:31 GMT
You would need hundreds out outcomes before you could even begin to draw any serious conclusions about whether or not the listed success rate is close to accurate. And preferably, you'd want thousands or 10s of thousands. Running an experiment where there's a 10 percent failure rate, with the action run thousands of times, you're going to have plenty of moments where you fail 2 out of 10 times, or twice in a row, or 3 out of 5 times even. As for picking up negative traits, they dont' seem to particularly matter in the long run. Run 2 teams as your Bronze/Silver teams with consistent 92+ percent chances, and then have 1 team who only runs Golds. They'll fail, a lot, but even with 5 negative traits it's rare for them to have less than a 29 percent chance, and I've still seen them have a 50 percent chance on favorable Golds. I might add a fourth team eventually to also run Golds, as I think I'm missing getting a few of them done, but I don't think it's particularly necessary. Admittedly, I'm replying too much to my own thread but to say that you need thousands of tests to say if it's accurate is a bit unnecessary. Let me put it another way, the game was just released and Bioware knows there are bugs. I've played other games like Assassin's Creed where you can send your assassins off on missions in a very similar fashion with various success rates and I never ran into this issue. There's no question the odds aren't as high as some of them indicate. I fail a mission every day and have 90%+ on every mission I try. What you say about probability is true but that said, if I had 2 fails in a row, which already happened, then where are the 20 in a row success streak as well? I'm failing at around a 35% rate for 90%+ missions. Your 20 in a row success rate clearly must have been on Assassin's Creed, according to you.
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Post by missileglitcher on Apr 1, 2017 1:07:55 GMT
aaaaand this is why i don't start strike missions when i have 5 percent chance of success lel
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Silvershroud
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Post by Silvershroud on Apr 1, 2017 5:41:18 GMT
The chances do feel rather wrong, but it's certainly possible that I'm just unlucky. I have 5 strike teams. When I got up this morning, all 5 had failed their missions, none of which were below 50%. Of course, I've succeeded on some low chance runs as well, but my number of failures at >80% is FAR, FAR higher than my successes at <50%.
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Post by rolenka on Apr 1, 2017 5:48:55 GMT
My goal is to equip them one day so odds are 100%. Pretty sure it isn't possible. There's either a hard cap of chance of success, or a diminishing rate of returns on bonuses that functionally creates a cap. I've yet to see anything over 94/95, no matter how favorable the traits are for the team. Oh, awesome. So if a team goes on enough missions, it will accumulate all the negative traits anyway.
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