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Post by GI3007 on Apr 1, 2017 7:31:59 GMT
How will we ever know for sure without seeing the code anyway? Unless everyone post their results.
Failure chance of two strike missions in a row with 90% odds is 1%. If there are thousands of people playing, this it is bound to occur to about 1% of those players on any given day if they did exactly as you have done. Odds of 3 failures in a row is 0.1% So if 1000 people do three missions in a row there is probably going to be 1 person that gets three failures in a row. Lets say 50000 people are using this app. That would mean approx 50 people might have this outcome every single day as new missions come in.
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Post by bronamath1 on Apr 1, 2017 18:23:42 GMT
Admittedly, I'm replying too much to my own thread but to say that you need thousands of tests to say if it's accurate is a bit unnecessary. Let me put it another way, the game was just released and Bioware knows there are bugs. I've played other games like Assassin's Creed where you can send your assassins off on missions in a very similar fashion with various success rates and I never ran into this issue. There's no question the odds aren't as high as some of them indicate. I fail a mission every day and have 90%+ on every mission I try. What you say about probability is true but that said, if I had 2 fails in a row, which already happened, then where are the 20 in a row success streak as well? I'm failing at around a 35% rate for 90%+ missions. Your 20 in a row success rate clearly must have been on Assassin's Creed, according to you. What I meant is if I fail two 90% missions in a row, where is the other side of the coin so to speak where I get lucky and hit a steak of success like 15 or 20 in a row without failing? But I did have way more success in Assassin's Creed when I'd send out my assassins. This is turning into a philosophical debate which is fine but not really my intention. I just wanted to see if you all noticed odd results based on the probably of success percentage. I understand RNGs but from my perspective, the percentages don't seem accurate based on what I've seen. Everyone is mentioning extremes which is kind of my point. I find it hard to believe it's so easy to find so many people that are saying they're winning or losing way more often than what probability of success percentage indicates. All the other biases can still apply of course and I think it's fair to say it's possible the RNG isn't perfect.
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Post by s0ulbearer on Apr 1, 2017 19:12:58 GMT
Your 20 in a row success rate clearly must have been on Assassin's Creed, according to you. What I meant is if I fail two 90% missions in a row, where is the other side of the coin so to speak where I get lucky and hit a steak of success like 15 or 20 in a row without failing? But I did have way more success in Assassin's Creed when I'd send out my assassins. This is turning into a philosophical debate which is fine but not really my intention. I just wanted to see if you all noticed odd results based on the probably of success percentage. I understand RNGs but from my perspective, the percentages don't seem accurate based on what I've seen. Everyone is mentioning extremes which is kind of my point. I find it hard to believe it's so easy to find so many people that are saying they're winning or losing way more often than what probability of success percentage indicates. All the other biases can still apply of course and I think it's fair to say it's possible the RNG isn't perfect. What I'm saying is you clearly have had rng luck in another rng decided game, so you HAVE seen both sides of the coin. You picking up what I'm putting down?
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Post by hieroglyph on Apr 1, 2017 19:38:31 GMT
How will we ever know for sure without seeing the code anyway? Unless everyone post their results. Failure chance of two strike missions in a row with 90% odds is 1%. If there are thousands of people playing, this it is bound to occur to about 1% of those players on any given day if they did exactly as you have done. Odds of 3 failures in a row is 0.1% So if 1000 people do three missions in a row there is probably going to be 1 person that gets three failures in a row. Lets say 50000 people are using this app. That would mean approx 50 people might have this outcome every single day as new missions come in. The issue is that the opposite must also be true, so for every player that fails two 90% missions in a row, a player should also succeed 20 in a row. Given that I run two teams and run all bronze/silver and only do very favorable gold missions that means I should not fail for three days in many cases, which is absolutely not true. To make matters worse my success chance is listed as 94% (seems to be a hard cap) so for every failure I should have roughly 19 successes. Again, this is not true or even close to the truth. Concerning the hard cap, the success chance most definitely has a diminishing return so it is safe to assume that a 100% success rate is simply impossible to attain. This also means that there is always a chance to fail which again suggests there is a minimum failure rate regardless of RNG. All of this points to the fact that the data is being manipulated beyond what the success rate tells us. That alone means it is not just RNG at play here.
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Zerfidius
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Games: Baldur's Gate
Origin: Zerfidius
Posts: 484 Likes: 1,406
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Post by Zerfidius on Apr 2, 2017 3:32:42 GMT
This of course assumes the algorithm is correct and covers all possible values evenly, which is why I specifically noted that there may be hidden variables such as a minimum failure rate. Again, something is not working properly and while I do not have the information to prove this claim I am not ignorant to the information provided either. I mean a 94% success rate means that I should fail roughly 1 in 20 on average. And while you can certainly roll a 20-sided die on the same number multiple times in a row the probability is very rare, such that when it does occur it is the exception or subject to being manipulated. In this case I'd guess that something is certainly being manipulated, either through erroneous code or due to hidden values. You can speculate all you like about manipulations and hidden factors that are missing from the displayed chance of success, but we've already explained that multiple failures is a plausible outcome even when it's only 6% likely per instance. You'll need more data, controlled data to have any basis for your claim. And given that Bioware's not going to tell you if there is some nefarious strike team success rate plot, you might as well let it go.
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Post by sinfulfox on Apr 2, 2017 11:03:35 GMT
Seems fine to me, my teams win about 99% of the missions
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