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Post by cypherj on Feb 27, 2019 22:14:54 GMT
If folks who bought Premier for a month to play Anthem then come back and pay every time substantial content drops or accumulates over months then chances are EA will be swimming in money fairly soon, if they don't already. In fact, I think that's the reason why EA is pushing this business model. There are way more players who play only occasionally or for a limited time than us, fans and hardcores - you think they won't find it a bargain to pay 4$ or 15$ for a month and then subsequently play it (+have access to other games), and then keep repeating that every now and then (or just buy a sub for a year, because Anthem has enough value to make the bundle of games EA has in its vault a good deal)? The game will go on discount occasionally - subscription fee may occasionally be on discount too, but other than that it will likely stay about the same The Access economics are getting interesting. At $15 a month a full-price game is the same price as four months of Access. Say three months if I'm willing to wait for a big discount. While I don't think EA publishes enough games for me to just give them my $100/year, dropping in and out to play stuff like Battlefield games, Anthem, etc., looks cost-effective. The lower tier is interesting too. While I already outright own everything I'm really invested in, there's a bunch of stuff I haven't played yet which I always intended to get to someday. Torment, earlier Battlefield games, the whole Arkham series. That's a lot of gaming hours for $5/month. (Hell, maybe Anthem shows up in that tier sooner rather than later.) I play Madden and FIFA every year, so that alone is $120. Any game on top of that, Anthem in this case is just gravy. Also, for anyone who may be thinking about the service, every game I've played so far, my version was updated to the most current version of the game when new content was released. I have the Legion of the Dawn version of Anthem for example.
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Post by alanc9 on Feb 27, 2019 22:14:58 GMT
An example from my own company. We sell our software as either a license, pay up front. Or as a SaaS service. We acquired a company 100% billed by what they actually use. We tried to forecast it, we were way off. We still made earnings as a company though. When we released numbers we talked about the acquisition as part of a group, along with the products it was supplementing. The release said that bookings and revenue were boosted by the product family of X,Y,Z, which included and the acquisition. Also, that existing clients were transitioned to our servers seamlessly, and their response was overwhelmingly positive. All of this is technically true, and you would think everything was great with this acquisition. When in actuality that product line alone missed projections, and although existing clients were transitioned smoothly, new clients, or clients that tried to integrate it with the core product were having terrible issues. With that shitshow going on, exactly how did you manage to make earnings? On a related note, we've seen a lot of speculation that Apex Legends will mask any Anthem shortfall to some extent.
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Post by alanc9 on Feb 27, 2019 22:18:43 GMT
The Access economics are getting interesting. At $15 a month a full-price game is the same price as four months of Access. Say three months if I'm willing to wait for a big discount. While I don't think EA publishes enough games for me to just give them my $100/year, dropping in and out to play stuff like Battlefield games, Anthem, etc., looks cost-effective. The lower tier is interesting too. While I already outright own everything I'm really invested in, there's a bunch of stuff I haven't played yet which I always intended to get to someday. Torment, earlier Battlefield games, the whole Arkham series. That's a lot of gaming hours for $5/month. (Hell, maybe Anthem shows up in that tier sooner rather than later.) I play Madden and FIFA every year, so that alone is $120. Any game on top of that, Anthem in this case is just gravy. Also, for anyone who may be thinking about the service, every game I've played so far, my version was updated to the most current version of the game when new content was released. I have the Legion of the Dawn version of Anthem for example. Oh, absolutely. If I played the sports games, Premier would be a no-brainer. Since my core gaming interests are RPGS and strategy games, with sidelines in FPSs, flight and space sims, and some other stuff, EA doesn't reliably deliver enough content to convert me permanently. Now, if Paradox set up a subscription service....
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cypherj
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Post by cypherj on Feb 27, 2019 22:28:15 GMT
An example from my own company. We sell our software as either a license, pay up front. Or as a SaaS service. We acquired a company 100% billed by what they actually use. We tried to forecast it, we were way off. We still made earnings as a company though. When we released numbers we talked about the acquisition as part of a group, along with the products it was supplementing. The release said that bookings and revenue were boosted by the product family of X,Y,Z, which included and the acquisition. Also, that existing clients were transitioned to our servers seamlessly, and their response was overwhelmingly positive. All of this is technically true, and you would think everything was great with this acquisition. When in actuality that product line alone missed projections, and although existing clients were transitioned smoothly, new clients, or clients that tried to integrate it with the core product were having terrible issues. With that shitshow going on, exactly how did you manage to make earnings? On a related note, we've seen a lot of speculation that Apex Legends will mask any Anthem shortfall to some extent. Well, 1) It's software, so you really have no overhead. Your main cost is salaries. 2) Our core product did very well 3) One of the products we lumped the acquisition with killed it that quarter. So instead of praising that one product, we spread it over a group. 4) It was an acquisition. You can survive a smaller acquisition not performing. For example, EA can survive a game like Andromeda not doing well. But if FIFA or Madden bomb, you're talking adjusting projections or missing earnings.
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Post by midnight tea on Feb 27, 2019 22:33:34 GMT
If folks who bought Premier for a month to play Anthem then come back and pay every time substantial content drops or accumulates over months then chances are EA will be swimming in money fairly soon, if they don't already. In fact, I think that's the reason why EA is pushing this business model. There are way more players who play only occasionally or for a limited time than us, fans and hardcores - you think they won't find it a bargain to pay 4$ or 15$ for a month and then subsequently play it (+have access to other games), and then keep repeating that every now and then (or just buy a sub for a year, because Anthem has enough value to make the bundle of games EA has in its vault a good deal)? The game will go on discount occasionally - subscription fee may occasionally be on discount too, but other than that it will likely stay about the same The Access economics are getting interesting. At $15 a month a full-price game is the same price as four months of Access. Say three months if I'm willing to wait for a big discount. While I don't think EA publishes enough games for me to just give them my $100/year, dropping in and out to play stuff like Battlefield games, Anthem, etc., looks cost-effective. The lower tier is interesting too. While I already outright own everything I'm really invested in, there's a bunch of stuff I haven't played yet which I always intended to get to someday. Torment, earlier Battlefield games, the whole Arkham series. That's a lot of gaming hours for $5/month. (Hell, maybe Anthem shows up in that tier sooner rather than later.) Yea, and they keep expanding the Vault and not just with EA titles. It acts as a pot sweetener - 'even if I don't like this or that game, I will have access to all those different titles for a time; quite a bargain'.
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Post by midnight tea on Feb 27, 2019 22:44:16 GMT
With that shitshow going on, exactly how did you manage to make earnings? On a related note, we've seen a lot of speculation that Apex Legends will mask any Anthem shortfall to some extent. Well, 1) It's software, so you really have no overhead. Your main cost is salaries. 2) Our core product did very well 3) One of the products we lumped the acquisition with killed it that quarter. So instead of praising that one product, we spread it over a group. 4) It was an acquisition. You can survive a smaller acquisition not performing. For example, EA can survive a game like Andromeda not doing well. But if FIFA or Madden bomb, you're talking adjusting projections or missing earnings. Should that encourage EA to not invest too heavily in one type or genre of their games?
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Post by linksocarina on Feb 27, 2019 22:45:00 GMT
The Access economics are getting interesting. At $15 a month a full-price game is the same price as four months of Access. Say three months if I'm willing to wait for a big discount. While I don't think EA publishes enough games for me to just give them my $100/year, dropping in and out to play stuff like Battlefield games, Anthem, etc., looks cost-effective. The lower tier is interesting too. While I already outright own everything I'm really invested in, there's a bunch of stuff I haven't played yet which I always intended to get to someday. Torment, earlier Battlefield games, the whole Arkham series. That's a lot of gaming hours for $5/month. (Hell, maybe Anthem shows up in that tier sooner rather than later.) Yea, and they keep expanding the Vault and not just with EA titles. It acts as a pot sweetener - 'even if I don't like this or that game, I will have access to all those different titles for a time; quite a bargain'. The fact that tons of folks already paid for the access to try out anthem is going to be used as a booster I am sure. EA got their money, whether it's a 1,000 cuts at 15 dollars or a few hundred deep gashes at 60. Or in some cases, both.
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Post by linksocarina on Feb 27, 2019 22:46:41 GMT
Well, 1) It's software, so you really have no overhead. Your main cost is salaries. 2) Our core product did very well 3) One of the products we lumped the acquisition with killed it that quarter. So instead of praising that one product, we spread it over a group. 4) It was an acquisition. You can survive a smaller acquisition not performing. For example, EA can survive a game like Andromeda not doing well. But if FIFA or Madden bomb, you're talking adjusting projections or missing earnings. Should that encourage EA to not invest too heavily in one type or genre of their games? They already dont. Despite the doom and gloom EA is one of the few western based publishers with a fairly diverse portfolio when it comes to their game franchises and differences between them.
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Post by midnight tea on Feb 27, 2019 22:58:18 GMT
Yea, and they keep expanding the Vault and not just with EA titles. It acts as a pot sweetener - 'even if I don't like this or that game, I will have access to all those different titles for a time; quite a bargain'. The fact that tons of folks already paid for the access to try out anthem is going to be used as a booster I am sure. EA got their money, whether it's a 1,000 cuts at 15 dollars or a few hundred deep gashes at 60. Or in some cases, both. Yea, I'm fairly sure that a number of people who bought a month of sub to try the VIP demo/Early Access may have been why EA was pleased with people's interest in Anthem.
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Post by samhain444 on Feb 27, 2019 23:00:26 GMT
Edit: I'm not saying Anthem is selling terribly. I'm just saying that you can't count on earnings calls for the truth. I'm not saying it's end-all, be-all either but, considering sales of physical copies is the only thing that seems to be reliable tracked, charts like the ones mentioned aren't going to be more accurate either. If we use "ME:A" as an example, despite it's mixed reception, and Aaron Flynn and Blake Jorgensen's contention that it should sell somewhere between 5-9 million (depending on who you are referencing), EA's reaction was "it's actually performed really well, and player engagement is really strong". They never offered an exact figure for units sold (there was an estimate of 2.5 million physical units shipped for $110 mil in revenue). Again, nothing is offered in the way digital sales but, "ME:A" if didn't hit potential internal projected target why would it get a pat on the back while franchises like "Dead Space", "Titanfall", Battlefield" and "Battlefront" were told to be disappointing. Fact is we may never know what the exact figures are in terms of unit sold but the call will at least give us an idea of how EA feels about the IP short-term and potential revenue generated from Feb 22nd through March 31st
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Post by cypherj on Feb 27, 2019 23:11:20 GMT
Well, 1) It's software, so you really have no overhead. Your main cost is salaries. 2) Our core product did very well 3) One of the products we lumped the acquisition with killed it that quarter. So instead of praising that one product, we spread it over a group. 4) It was an acquisition. You can survive a smaller acquisition not performing. For example, EA can survive a game like Andromeda not doing well. But if FIFA or Madden bomb, you're talking adjusting projections or missing earnings. Should that encourage EA to not invest too heavily in one type or genre of their games? Is that what happened though? Six years development is not some minimal investment. It's not like Dragon Age 2, where they threw something out in like a year and a half. I think the management at Bioware is the main issue. Five years on Andromeda, six on Anthem and this is what we get. I don't know if you've played the game, but there were many times when I was thinking to myself, there is no way they spent six years on this. They had to scrap everything at some point and start over. Same with Andromeda. Unless EA made them change what they were doing that's all on Bioware.
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Post by Mobius Y on Feb 27, 2019 23:22:02 GMT
Well, 1) It's software, so you really have no overhead. Your main cost is salaries. 2) Our core product did very well 3) One of the products we lumped the acquisition with killed it that quarter. So instead of praising that one product, we spread it over a group. 4) It was an acquisition. You can survive a smaller acquisition not performing. For example, EA can survive a game like Andromeda not doing well. But if FIFA or Madden bomb, you're talking adjusting projections or missing earnings. Should that encourage EA to not invest too heavily in one type or genre of their games? It should encourage EA to delay a game that’s not fucking ready, for once.
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Post by midnight tea on Feb 27, 2019 23:38:26 GMT
Should that encourage EA to not invest too heavily in one type or genre of their games? They already dont. Despite the doom and gloom EA is one of the few western based publishers with a fairly diverse portfolio when it comes to their game franchises and differences between them. Well, it certainly looks better than Activision ATM, given that their current AAA portfolio consisting of one major title (COD) and Blizzard not having any AAA titles to announce or release in near future, which AFAIK was one reason for recent layoffs. Also, I've read an article (Schreier's, I think?) in which it is mentioned that current EA CEO ain't particularly pleased with the whole deal with Disney abt. Star Wars games (apparently something that has been done before current CEO took over?) as he believes EA should focus on their own IPs. It does seem to make sense ATM (given what happened with Destiny) and, in my amateur eye, it seems to be an indicator that Bioware is a valued studio they're not going to get rid of easily, given the wealth of well-recognized, exclusively owned IPs they've produced over years and still have a chance of making Anthem a well-respected brand on its own.
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Post by linksocarina on Feb 27, 2019 23:47:46 GMT
Should that encourage EA to not invest too heavily in one type or genre of their games? It should encourage EA to delay a game that’s not fucking ready, for once. They aren't nintendo and they don't have the war chest to do that.
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Post by dutchsghost7 on Feb 27, 2019 23:47:57 GMT
Eurogamer reports on the UK charts, only counting boxed games (no digital downloads). Others use low Twitch viewers as an indication that sales are going bad, or big discounts in various countries. EA expects Anthem to sell 6 million in it's first quarter. It's all guessing, because EA doesn't like talking about sales figures. If Anthem does bad, I'm pretty sure they'll keep a team on it like they did with Andromeda's multiplayer. They will still be able to make big money on microtransactions, even from one or two million players. I do worry about BioWare, Dragon Age and Mass Effect... most of the sales will definitely be digital but hopefully Anthem bombs. What a disgrace...
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Post by midnight tea on Feb 28, 2019 0:07:17 GMT
Should that encourage EA to not invest too heavily in one type or genre of their games? Is that what happened though? Six years development is not some minimal investment. It's not like Dragon Age 2, where they threw something out in like a year and a half. I think the management at Bioware is the main issue. Five years on Andromeda, six on Anthem and this is what we get. I don't know if you've played the game, but there were many times when I was thinking to myself, there is no way they spent six years on this. They had to scrap everything at some point and start over. Same with Andromeda. Unless EA made them change what they were doing that's all on Bioware. Not only I played this game (currently 76 hours in), I've also played the game that is giving me serious deja-vu now, hence I mentioned it relatively often here - ESO. ESO was even longer in development and it's that long development time that sparked trouble for the game (why do people keep forgetting that developers usually warn about being stuck in development for too long???). At a time it was released things have moved on and systems they have designed weren't up to par with what was expected in 2014; some of their solutions or game design decisions or features were simply outdated - yet the game was so big and so long in the oven, they finally had to release it, especially that MMO craze was coming to an end. It had a mixed to really bad launch (depending on who you're asking). If I recall correctly, the first day of either early access or world-wide launch ended with servers being shut down for half a day or more due to critical bugs. And if I sound uncertain, that's only because that happened more than once or twice after some major updates. Some issues were so severe we got a month of subscription for free. Compared to that Anthem's issues are small fries. It took Zenimax Online a while to straighten things out - mostly because they were still building console ports AND rewriting game's internal architecture. It is only after they've had the game where they wanted it to further expand (about 1-2 YEARS after game was released. It's actually content drought that made me look for other games to play in the meantime, which is how I stumbled on Bioware) that they began churning out content at a regular rate and increasing scale. It worked. ESO is one of the most popular MMOs now and it's full of goodies brought over years. IMO the launch may have been bad/meh, but it has allowed them to re-focus their efforts and react to issues or demands or the wide playerbase. IMO Anthem has nowhere near as many problems ESO had. The core game is solid. But if you keep wondering where all those years went, then I think I can give you a fairly accurate pointer - it went into the internal architecture that is the foundation to expand the game further. Why do you think they can deal with at least some problems relatively quickly, from server side? It's because the internal structure of the game allows it. They've also had to build all their pipelines to produce live-service content at a satisfactory rate - makes sense for them to have that done, even if we assume that they've worked on live-service updates for months already and they're half-done or more. But it's also damn complicated and being an online game complicates things further (as is this being the first game of its kind on Frostbite engine and from this particular studio). So it makes sense for them to release the foundation, make sure it's stable and then - when they're sure it can handle thousands to millions of players simultaneously, start filling it with content. (and if you ask - shouldn't the game have an extended beta? ESO had a year of closed beta program and has Public Test Server open for almost all thei DLCs, major updates and expansions.. and some things only become apparent once EVERYONE starts logging in).
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Post by nanotm on Feb 28, 2019 0:20:27 GMT
Should that encourage EA to not invest too heavily in one type or genre of their games? Is that what happened though? Six years development is not some minimal investment. It's not like Dragon Age 2, where they threw something out in like a year and a half. I think the management at Bioware is the main issue. Five years on Andromeda, six on Anthem and this is what we get. I don't know if you've played the game, but there were many times when I was thinking to myself, there is no way they spent six years on this. They had to scrap everything at some point and start over. Same with Andromeda. Unless EA made them change what they were doing that's all on Bioware. ea made them move to the frostbite engine at the 3 yr point, the only thing they could reuse was the original art stuff, everything else had to be redone from scratch since as they found out with DAI just porting it across left it with glaring holes, (anthem was originally slated for a 2018 release, but after the problems with andromeda they took and extra year on it) the reason andromeda did poorly was all down to the outsourcing for staff to hit the deadline (it didnt work out so well given the people they hired in wanted more inclusivity) anthem itself is very playable (it has quest tracking problems and the loading situation needs a fix) but those are basically cosmetic, the gameplay itself is generally good, as for the game generating a lot of money, the majority who played the first month as a sub to premier will either hang around and play some of hte back catalogue or likely come back in another month to play the expansion(s) to the base game, if as has been hinted anthem sold 40k physical copies via one branch of a game store in the first 2 days after launch thats actually pretty good (especially given the time of year and the other new releases in the same month) every digital copy is basically 90% profit whereas physical copies there making half the sale price for each game sold so its better for EA to make more digital sales (chances are I will be getting a copy for the xbone in the near future as well as having the vault for the year, which means I spent less on anthem and its expansions that I did on say DAI via origin, especially since I purchase every dlc lol) and EA has a forecast for another game later in the year I might want to play which makes it even better value... premier subs are apparently huge (and not just for anthem) when it was just hte basic sub service they started out at around $7 a month and dropped to $25 a year due to the number of subscribers ( so origin didnt out earn everything else) EA has its fingers in many pies and not just near every genre of games on the market... as to anthem's actual performance time will tell, and first day sales are never going to be reported properly nor are they going to be from every retailer (indeed one of the articles mentions they only track their own stores, and thats a store chain thats hovering around liquidation status for the last 12 months because the online marketplace is killing their business model so them only assigning 40k sales of ps4 games is a huge nothing burger anyway / )
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Post by bigbad on Feb 28, 2019 0:21:59 GMT
Yea, and they keep expanding the Vault and not just with EA titles. It acts as a pot sweetener - 'even if I don't like this or that game, I will have access to all those different titles for a time; quite a bargain'. The fact that tons of folks already paid for the access to try out anthem is going to be used as a booster I am sure. EA got their money, whether it's a 1,000 cuts at 15 dollars or a few hundred deep gashes at 60. Or in some cases, both. In my case at least, every Bioware game in recent memory has been an immediate buy, including a pre-order of the deluxe edition of Mass Effect: Andromeda (poor decision). This time, I decided that I would only shell out $15 to try it out. I got through the campaign and immediately uninstalled and canceled origin premiere. So, what normally have been a $60-80 purchase was only $15 for me. I will absolutely not spend another dime on Anthem until A) the game is much better and B ) it's selling at a steep discount.
Depending on how many people like me there are, Origin access premiere may not end up making up for lack of actual game sales.
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Post by Andrew Lucas on Feb 28, 2019 0:49:17 GMT
Do we know the developing budget they worked with it? Considering how small the game is, I would be surprised if it's actually huge. I want this game to sell so that BioWare isn't finally killed before DA4.
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Post by dutchsghost7 on Feb 28, 2019 4:25:06 GMT
Do we know the developing budget they worked with it? Considering how small the game is, I would be surprised if it's actually huge. I want this game to sell so that BioWare isn't finally killed before DA4. It’s been worked on since me3 so at least $100 million in development costs for that project alone. Add in the Hollywood tier advertising, so $200 million minimum and you have a $300 million game that needs 6 million units sold in one month to be profitable.
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Post by river82 on Feb 28, 2019 4:50:23 GMT
Do we know the developing budget they worked with it? Considering how small the game is, I would be surprised if it's actually huge. I want this game to sell so that BioWare isn't finally killed before DA4. It’s been worked on since me3 so at least $100 million in development costs for that project alone. Add in the Hollywood tier advertising, so $200 million minimum and you have a $300 million game that needs 6 million units sold in one month to be profitable. The marketing for Anthem hasn't been that extensive, and has really only ramped up over the last month. Month and a bit. The EA Gamechanger program garnishes a fair amount of practically free advertising for them. Usually for AAA games marketing costs is the same as development costs. To me I haven't seen 100 million dollars worth of advertising but I might be wrong there.
According to Schreier Anthem was in pre-production for an incredibly long time. Pre-production only has a skeleton crew and doesn't really contribute incredibly much to the budget.
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Post by sprsynjn on Feb 28, 2019 5:01:47 GMT
It’s hard to tell that this is a forum for BioWare games with how many “I hope BioWare dies out” posts I see. Those people should be ashamed of themselves. It really is immature to say such things.
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Post by samhain444 on Feb 28, 2019 7:13:07 GMT
Do we know the developing budget they worked with it? Considering how small the game is, I would be surprised if it's actually huge. I want this game to sell so that BioWare isn't finally killed before DA4. It’s been worked on since me3 so at least $100 million in development costs for that project alone. Add in the Hollywood tier advertising, so $200 million minimum and you have a $300 million game that needs 6 million units sold in one month to be profitable. $300 mil...so it's the most expensive video game ever created More expensive than GTA5 and SWTOR Ok, champ
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Spectr61
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Games: Mass Effect Trilogy, Dragon Age 2, Dragon Age Inquisition, Mass Effect Andromeda, Anthem
Origin: Spectr61
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Post by Spectr61 on Feb 28, 2019 7:16:20 GMT
At the risk of being called immature, after seeing "Super" Mac Walters in the credits for Anthem, place me firmly in the camp of the former.
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linksocarina
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Always teacher, sometimes writer
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Games: Mass Effect Trilogy, Dragon Age: Origins, Dragon Age 2, Dragon Age Inquisition, KOTOR, Baldur's Gate, Jade Empire, Mass Effect Andromeda
PSN: LinksOcarina
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Post by linksocarina on Feb 28, 2019 12:08:14 GMT
It’s been worked on since me3 so at least $100 million in development costs for that project alone. Add in the Hollywood tier advertising, so $200 million minimum and you have a $300 million game that needs 6 million units sold in one month to be profitable. $300 mil...so it's the most expensive video game ever created More expensive than GTA5 and SWTOR Ok, champ Yeah it's about $100 million I suspect. That seems ballpark average for a game like this. I'll be shockey if it's close to $200.
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