kaileena_sands
N3
Games: Mass Effect Trilogy, Dragon Age: Origins, Dragon Age 2, Dragon Age Inquistion, KOTOR, Mass Effect Andromeda
Posts: 285 Likes: 1,305
inherit
706
0
Aug 15, 2018 17:40:10 GMT
1,305
kaileena_sands
285
August 2016
kaileenasands
Mass Effect Trilogy, Dragon Age: Origins, Dragon Age 2, Dragon Age Inquistion, KOTOR, Mass Effect Andromeda
|
Post by kaileena_sands on Jun 2, 2017 8:14:16 GMT
Opened 43 Premiums today, received 17 UR's. That's 39.5% droprate. Never hit the pity timer. With the last purchased pack I finally unlocked the valiant, my last missing UR. It took 32 packs to max the "new (HAHA)" rare weapons. The last three (viper) ranks were in three seperate premium packs, it seems like there can't be more than one rank of the same weapon in one pack. I am wondering how some people get such good drop rates. The last 7 million have netted me 8 URs (so just one additional above the pity timer). Why game, whyyyyy. :sob: Is there anything different I should be doing? Sacrifice a baby goat to RNGesus? Stop hating Biower on the forums? I honestly am starting to feel they are trolling me on purpose.
|
|
Schachmatt123
N3
Games: Mass Effect Trilogy, KOTOR
Origin: Schachmatt123
Posts: 336 Likes: 1,135
inherit
685
0
Sept 19, 2024 1:38:35 GMT
1,135
Schachmatt123
336
August 2016
schachmatt123
Mass Effect Trilogy, KOTOR
Schachmatt123
|
Post by Schachmatt123 on Jun 2, 2017 8:37:40 GMT
Opened 43 Premiums today, received 17 UR's. That's 39.5% droprate. Never hit the pity timer. With the last purchased pack I finally unlocked the valiant, my last missing UR. It took 32 packs to max the "new (HAHA)" rare weapons. The last three (viper) ranks were in three seperate premium packs, it seems like there can't be more than one rank of the same weapon in one pack. I am wondering how some people get such good drop rates. The last 7 million have netted me 8 URs (so just one additional above the pity timer). Why game, whyyyyy. :sob: Is there anything different I should be doing? Sacrifice a baby goat to RNGesus? Stop hating Biower on the forums? I honestly am starting to feel they are trolling me on purpose. Before that I got only 3 out of my last 30 premium packs. I consider this to be just a rare lucky streak. Now back to business as usual, I presume. At first I just wanted to unlock and max the new rare cards, but after those many UR's I decided to spend a little more of my savings to continue the streak. Just random luck.
|
|
inherit
Asker of Questions
833
0
Aug 27, 2024 17:27:08 GMT
11,040
JRandall0308
4,276
August 2016
jrandall0308
Mass Effect Trilogy, Mass Effect Andromeda
JRandall0308
|
Post by JRandall0308 on Jun 2, 2017 11:57:26 GMT
You guys MUST record your openings if you want to say "never hit the pity RNG". I have tons of evidence that it works on any run of at least 10 Premiums.
I do think I found one way to break (or reset) the pity RNG but additional testing is needed. It's not something you would ever normally do so don't worry about it.
But if you buy Premiums all in a row the pity RNG works and I will continue to believe that until it is disproved with recorded evidence.
|
|
inherit
6161
0
2,868
Kazu
1,332
Mar 26, 2017 14:50:12 GMT
March 2017
kazu
Mass Effect Trilogy, Mass Effect Andromeda
IOrzhov
|
Post by Kazu on Jun 2, 2017 12:06:20 GMT
Actual video or spreadsheet?
|
|
inherit
Asker of Questions
833
0
Aug 27, 2024 17:27:08 GMT
11,040
JRandall0308
4,276
August 2016
jrandall0308
Mass Effect Trilogy, Mass Effect Andromeda
JRandall0308
|
Post by JRandall0308 on Jun 2, 2017 12:19:31 GMT
Video to back up a spreadsheet.
Spreadsheet so we can look at it first, see the patterns. Video for proof of anything weird.
|
|
inherit
6439
0
Feb 26, 2019 15:45:34 GMT
5,013
gethadept
2,596
Mar 28, 2017 14:47:27 GMT
March 2017
gethadept
Tallgeese_VII (Old,playing casual)
|
Post by gethadept on Jun 2, 2017 15:28:03 GMT
You guys MUST record your openings if you want to say "never hit the pity RNG". I have tons of evidence that it works on any run of at least 10 Premiums. I do think I found one way to break (or reset) the pity RNG but additional testing is needed. It's not something you would ever normally do so don't worry about it. But if you buy Premiums all in a row the pity RNG works and I will continue to believe that until it is disproved with recorded evidence. People are saying they never hit the pity RNG not because it went over 10th pack without UR... but because their drop rate was too good and never had to wait 10th pack to get pity UR.... Lucky them... I personally hit 3 UR pity timer (assuming)... with 3 million credits last week. One UR every 10th pack.
|
|
inherit
Asker of Questions
833
0
Aug 27, 2024 17:27:08 GMT
11,040
JRandall0308
4,276
August 2016
jrandall0308
Mass Effect Trilogy, Mass Effect Andromeda
JRandall0308
|
Post by JRandall0308 on Jun 2, 2017 15:34:59 GMT
You get the pity RNG regardless of what else is happening. Example: # URs | Packs Since Last UR | Post 1.07 Premium Pack Counter | 1 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 1 | 34 | 0 | 2 | 35 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 1 | 37 | 1 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 1 | 39 | 0 | 2 | 40 | 1 | 0 | 41 |
Here the Pity RNG is kicking in on #31 and #41. But in the meantime I also got URs on #33, #36, and #38. I am working on a big writeup for this but it's time consuming (and expensive) to buy and track everything. P.S. If you look at this particular set of 11 packs you'll think my pack opening drop rate is amazing. I assure it, it's totally normal (~23%). This is an example of why you cannot cherry pick a small set of data to draw from conclusions from.
|
|
inherit
6439
0
Feb 26, 2019 15:45:34 GMT
5,013
gethadept
2,596
Mar 28, 2017 14:47:27 GMT
March 2017
gethadept
Tallgeese_VII (Old,playing casual)
|
Post by gethadept on Jun 2, 2017 15:42:06 GMT
You get the pity RNG regardless of what else is happening. Example: # URs | Packs Since Last UR | Post 1.07 Premium Pack Counter | 1 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 1 | 34 | 0 | 2 | 35 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 1 | 37 | 1 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 1 | 39 | 0 | 2 | 40 | 1 | 0 | 41 |
Here the Pity RNG is kicking in on #31 and #41. But in the meantime I also got URs on #33, #36, and #38. I am working on a big writeup for this but it's time consuming (and expensive) to buy and track everything. P.S. If you look at this particular set of 11 packs you'll think my pack opening drop rate is amazing. I assure it, it's totally normal (~23%). This is an example of why you cannot cherry pick a small set of data to draw from conclusions from. I noticed this last time when I got one UR for 5th pack then other one for 5th pack. so I got UR 10th 10th 10th 5th 5th. haha
|
|
inherit
6161
0
2,868
Kazu
1,332
Mar 26, 2017 14:50:12 GMT
March 2017
kazu
Mass Effect Trilogy, Mass Effect Andromeda
IOrzhov
|
Post by Kazu on Jun 2, 2017 15:59:54 GMT
You get the pity RNG regardless of what else is happening. Example: # URs | Packs Since Last UR | Post 1.07 Premium Pack Counter | 1 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 1 | 34 | 0 | 2 | 35 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 1 | 37 | 1 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 1 | 39 | 0 | 2 | 40 | 1 | 0 | 41 |
Here the Pity RNG is kicking in on #31 and #41. But in the meantime I also got URs on #33, #36, and #38. I am working on a big writeup for this but it's time consuming (and expensive) to buy and track everything. P.S. If you look at this particular set of 11 packs you'll think my pack opening drop rate is amazing. I assure it, it's totally normal (~23%). This is an example of why you cannot cherry pick a small set of data to draw from conclusions from. I observed something different, but due to the lack of record I will have to observe again and record.
|
|
inherit
8089
0
Sept 25, 2024 16:34:17 GMT
5,352
lennybusker
1,860
April 2017
lennybusker
Mass Effect Trilogy, Dragon Age: Origins, Dragon Age 2, Dragon Age Inquisition, KOTOR, Baldur's Gate, Jade Empire, Mass Effect Andromeda
LennyBusker
|
Post by lennybusker on Jun 3, 2017 3:53:40 GMT
WTF, no. No data shows guaranteed URs on every 10th package, how the fuck are you idiots reading that into the data. This zombie lie will not die, ffs. Here, my last 50 packs: i.imgur.com/avC6QWX.pngObviously I had been opening them before I started this series. But let's look it. I got one on pack #1. If that was my "tenth pack" and there's a guaranteed every 10, I should have one on 11. Do I? No. I got one on pack #2. If that was my "tenth pack" and there's a guaranteed every 10, I should have one on 12. Do I? No. I got one on pack #5. If that was my "tenth pack" and there's a guaranteed every 10, I should have one on 15. Do I? No. I got one on pack #7. If that was my "tenth pack" and there's a guaranteed every 10, I should have one on 17. Do I? Yes. Oh shit! Maybe this is it! Oh, wait, nope, I didn't get one on 27, or 47. So that's bullshit. I got one on pack #19. If that was my "tenth pack" and there's a guaranteed every 10, I should have one on 9. Do I? No. I got one on pack #23. If that was my "tenth pack" and there's a guaranteed every 10, I should have one on 13. Do I? No. I got one on pack #24. If that was my "tenth pack" and there's a guaranteed every 10, I should have one on 14. Do I? No. I got one on pack #48. If that was my "tenth pack" and there's a guaranteed every 10, I should have one on all the other 8s. Do I? No. I didn't get one on any #6, so that's right the fuck out. I only got one on one #10, so that's right the fuck out. Look at the series I covered. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10. DE-FUCKING-BUNKED for every possible pack where it could be "every 10" in my series. The ONLY pity pack I got was number 17, where it had been 10 packs since I got a UR. THAT'S THE PITY TIMER. NOTHING ELSE. Now let the fucking stupid zombie lie fucking die, morons.
|
|
inherit
Asker of Questions
833
0
Aug 27, 2024 17:27:08 GMT
11,040
JRandall0308
4,276
August 2016
jrandall0308
Mass Effect Trilogy, Mass Effect Andromeda
JRandall0308
|
Post by JRandall0308 on Jun 3, 2017 12:15:18 GMT
When is this data from? And did you open any other pack types in between the Premiums?
|
|
inherit
8089
0
Sept 25, 2024 16:34:17 GMT
5,352
lennybusker
1,860
April 2017
lennybusker
Mass Effect Trilogy, Dragon Age: Origins, Dragon Age 2, Dragon Age Inquisition, KOTOR, Baldur's Gate, Jade Empire, Mass Effect Andromeda
LennyBusker
|
Post by lennybusker on Jun 3, 2017 15:19:48 GMT
From the last few days. And yes, some basic packs in between. My set shows the same COMPLETE AND UTTER LACK of an "every 10" pattern that Forkinator's shows, and he did not buy anything other than Premiums. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1k0D1pvgke76qCQ9mXdVnjhuvuKhEc89GrdhyatZOaAw/edit#gid=1193558454Reminder that Forkinator posted this shit 11 days ago so the lie about "every 10th PP" has been so easily disprovable since then. Let's review his series the same way I reviewed mine, looking for "EVERY 10TH". Let's just imagine that pack #1 was actually off the list and use row numbers for ease of searching. #1: Nothing on pack 21. Debunked. #2: Nothing on pack 12. Debunked. #3: Nothing on pack 13. Debunked. #4: Nothing on pack 14. Debunked. #5: Nothing on pack 15. Debunked. #6: Nothing on pack 16. Debunked. #7: Nothing on pack 17. Debunked. #8: Nothing on pack 28. Debunked. #9: Hmmm, one on 9. One on 19. One on 29, oh shit! OOOOPS, NOTHING ON 39. DEBUNKED. #10: Nothing on pack 20. Debunked. Conclusion: If you have a set showing that you got a UR "every 10th" pack, your set isn't long enough. It's pure chance, and if you keep logging eventually your streak will break.
|
|
Transcended One
N4
Games: Mass Effect Trilogy, Dragon Age: Origins, Dragon Age 2, Dragon Age Inquisition, KOTOR, Baldur's Gate, Shattered Steel, Neverwinter Nights, Jade Empire, Mass Effect Andromeda
Origin: TranscendedOne
PSN: Cornughon
Posts: 1,557 Likes: 2,641
inherit
5308
0
2,641
Transcended One
1,557
March 2017
cornugon
Mass Effect Trilogy, Dragon Age: Origins, Dragon Age 2, Dragon Age Inquisition, KOTOR, Baldur's Gate, Shattered Steel, Neverwinter Nights, Jade Empire, Mass Effect Andromeda
TranscendedOne
Cornughon
|
Post by Transcended One on Jun 3, 2017 15:42:29 GMT
When is this data from? And did you open any other pack types in between the Premiums? I can also concur that a tenth pack doesn't always grant an UR if you got one in-between. In my experience the pity counter resets after getting an UR. As said before I'm too lazy/unwilling to install Shadowplay and stuff to record my findings. I just write everything down.
|
|
vomder
N3
Games: Mass Effect Trilogy, Dragon Age: Origins, Dragon Age 2, Dragon Age Inquistion, KOTOR, Jade Empire, Mass Effect Andromeda
Origin: vomder
XBL Gamertag: killer of stars
PSN: vomder
Posts: 396 Likes: 736
inherit
5248
0
Sept 26, 2017 2:21:04 GMT
736
vomder
396
Mar 20, 2017 19:03:31 GMT
March 2017
vomder
Mass Effect Trilogy, Dragon Age: Origins, Dragon Age 2, Dragon Age Inquistion, KOTOR, Jade Empire, Mass Effect Andromeda
vomder
killer of stars
vomder
|
Post by vomder on Jun 3, 2017 15:52:10 GMT
Wasn't the UR every 10 packs having to do with dry streaks? Am I missing something?
|
|
inherit
8089
0
Sept 25, 2024 16:34:17 GMT
5,352
lennybusker
1,860
April 2017
lennybusker
Mass Effect Trilogy, Dragon Age: Origins, Dragon Age 2, Dragon Age Inquisition, KOTOR, Baldur's Gate, Jade Empire, Mass Effect Andromeda
LennyBusker
|
Post by lennybusker on Jun 3, 2017 15:57:21 GMT
Wasn't the UR every 10 packs having to do with dry streaks? Am I missing something? Yes, that's always what it was, it has never deviated from that. It's only "every 10th" if you don't get one "naturally". People have gotten confused by a few bad accounts and the incorrect information has spread like wildfire claiming that you get one every 10th regardless of URs granted in between, which is blatantly false and easily disprovable.
|
|
rlro
N3
Games: Mass Effect Trilogy, Dragon Age: Origins, Dragon Age 2, Dragon Age Inquistion, Baldur's Gate, Neverwinter Nights, Mass Effect Andromeda
Origin: rlro
Posts: 288 Likes: 386
inherit
4870
0
Nov 28, 2017 23:47:05 GMT
386
rlro
288
Mar 17, 2017 22:13:59 GMT
March 2017
rlro
Mass Effect Trilogy, Dragon Age: Origins, Dragon Age 2, Dragon Age Inquistion, Baldur's Gate, Neverwinter Nights, Mass Effect Andromeda
rlro
|
Post by rlro on Jun 3, 2017 15:58:25 GMT
When is this data from? And did you open any other pack types in between the Premiums? I can also concur that a tenth pack doesn't always grant an UR if you got one in-between. In my experience the pity counter resets after getting an UR. As said before I'm too lazy/unwilling to install Shadowplay and stuff to record my findings. I just write everything down. From my experience, the pity time resets too, after getting a UR.
|
|
vomder
N3
Games: Mass Effect Trilogy, Dragon Age: Origins, Dragon Age 2, Dragon Age Inquistion, KOTOR, Jade Empire, Mass Effect Andromeda
Origin: vomder
XBL Gamertag: killer of stars
PSN: vomder
Posts: 396 Likes: 736
inherit
5248
0
Sept 26, 2017 2:21:04 GMT
736
vomder
396
Mar 20, 2017 19:03:31 GMT
March 2017
vomder
Mass Effect Trilogy, Dragon Age: Origins, Dragon Age 2, Dragon Age Inquistion, KOTOR, Jade Empire, Mass Effect Andromeda
vomder
killer of stars
vomder
|
Post by vomder on Jun 3, 2017 20:07:36 GMT
Wasn't the UR every 10 packs having to do with dry streaks? Am I missing something? Yes, that's always what it was, it has never deviated from that. It's only "every 10th" if you don't get one "naturally". People have gotten confused by a few bad accounts and the incorrect information has spread like wildfire claiming that you get one every 10th regardless of URs granted in between, which is blatantly false and easily disprovable. ok good, was worried that something had changed
|
|
inherit
7816
0
339
auronio
280
April 2017
auronio
|
Post by auronio on Jun 4, 2017 12:12:09 GMT
Just opened 10 premium packs in a row with 5 ultra rares. My best yield ever. Happy Sunday!!!
|
|
inherit
7016
0
17
lyravain
5
April 2017
lyravain
|
Post by lyravain on Jun 4, 2017 21:33:44 GMT
Just because I'd like to confirm something; after 1.07, for the Expert Packs, we no longer have the pity timer (after 9 packs in a row WITHOUT an UR, we get a guaranteed UR)? 'Cause I bought 20 Expert Packs and got nothing in'em. I'd rather go for the Premiums if that's the case, really.
|
|
inherit
8323
0
Jul 22, 2018 14:59:02 GMT
9
r3v3l4t0r
9
May 10, 2017 17:33:44 GMT
May 2017
r3v3l4t0r
|
Post by r3v3l4t0r on Jun 5, 2017 0:28:23 GMT
Premiums have been fairly kind after i maxed rares and the few stragglers in uncommon.
I have not counted from the beginning but bought expert packs to close rare and uncommon (45% UC drop rate from experts)
This is my premiums since then.
150 premium angara avenger 4 151 premium 152 premium human kineticist 1 153 premium 154 premium 155 premium 156 premium PAW 3 157 adv 158 adv 159 adv 160 adv 161 adv 162 adv 163 adv 164 adv 165 premium Human kineticist 2 166 premium 167 premium 168 premium 169 premium 170 premium 171 premium 172 premium 173 premium 174 premium 175 premium salarian ope 3 176 premium 177 premium 178 premium 179 premium 180 premium 181 premium Rozerad 3 182 premium 183 premium Rozerad 4 Dhan 2 184 premium 185 premium 186 premium Angara Avenger 5 187 premium Krogan Gladiator 3 188 premium 189 premium 190 premium 191 premium 192 premium Angara Avemger 6 193 premium 194 premium 195 premium 196 premium 197 premium Angara avenger 7 198 premium Asari duelist 2 black widow 4 199 premium 200 premium
|
|
inherit
Asker of Questions
833
0
Aug 27, 2024 17:27:08 GMT
11,040
JRandall0308
4,276
August 2016
jrandall0308
Mass Effect Trilogy, Mass Effect Andromeda
JRandall0308
|
Post by JRandall0308 on Jun 5, 2017 1:24:42 GMT
Just because I'd like to confirm something; after 1.07, for the Expert Packs, we no longer have the pity timer (after 9 packs in a row WITHOUT an UR, we get a guaranteed UR)? 'Cause I bought 20 Expert Packs and got nothing in'em. I'd rather go for the Premiums if that's the case, really. The Expert Pack pity RNG is now 30 rather than 10.
|
|
inherit
6161
0
2,868
Kazu
1,332
Mar 26, 2017 14:50:12 GMT
March 2017
kazu
Mass Effect Trilogy, Mass Effect Andromeda
IOrzhov
|
Post by Kazu on Jun 5, 2017 10:34:00 GMT
Just because I'd like to confirm something; after 1.07, for the Expert Packs, we no longer have the pity timer (after 9 packs in a row WITHOUT an UR, we get a guaranteed UR)? 'Cause I bought 20 Expert Packs and got nothing in'em. I'd rather go for the Premiums if that's the case, really. The Expert Pack pity RNG is now 30 rather than 10. Will you show me the source if I say pretty please? If it is then we maybe have to ask ourselves if it is better to take the guaranteed UR every 1.5 million if things get ugly, or to stick with the one million safety net.
|
|
inherit
Asker of Questions
833
0
Aug 27, 2024 17:27:08 GMT
11,040
JRandall0308
4,276
August 2016
jrandall0308
Mass Effect Trilogy, Mass Effect Andromeda
JRandall0308
|
Post by JRandall0308 on Jun 5, 2017 12:28:49 GMT
The Expert Pack pity RNG is now 30 rather than 10. Will you show me the source if I say pretty please? If it is then we maybe have to ask ourselves if it is better to take the guaranteed UR every 1.5 million if things get ugly, or to stick with the one million safety net. Source: bsn.boards.net/thread/10590/expert-packs-millions-credit-dataNobody has repeated the experiment because nobody wants to spend that many credits for such a poor return. Thus we are taking the results somewhat on faith. As for your second sentence. Are you seriously proposing that it is better to spend 1.5 million for 1 guaranteed UR rather than 1 million for 1 guaranteed UR? I don't know how to respond to that.
|
|
pitka17
N2
Origin: pitkanen17
Posts: 171 Likes: 198
inherit
7046
0
Oct 19, 2018 23:20:27 GMT
198
pitka17
171
April 2017
pitka17
pitkanen17
|
Post by pitka17 on Jun 5, 2017 13:54:41 GMT
Will you show me the source if I say pretty please? If it is then we maybe have to ask ourselves if it is better to take the guaranteed UR every 1.5 million if things get ugly, or to stick with the one million safety net. I probably would't treat your pack purchasing decision like purchasing insurance, but rather focus on average payout. The two packs were statistically even when the expert pity timer was in place. Note that 70% of UR's received in expert packs were on the pity pack. Even moving the pity timer up to 12 or 15 packs would have been a OHK to expert pack viability. Don't overestimate the importance of the Premium Pack pity time just because it was so important on experts: assuming 10% drop rate per slot for premiums (which appears to be either a correct or low estimate), you should only hit the timer on 14% of your UR's. With the numbers people are posting, I'm thinking the per slot drop rate might be higher; I'm up to 26.5% drop rate since the patch (31UR in 117PP), which would further decrease your chance of seeing the pity timer.
|
|
inherit
6161
0
2,868
Kazu
1,332
Mar 26, 2017 14:50:12 GMT
March 2017
kazu
Mass Effect Trilogy, Mass Effect Andromeda
IOrzhov
|
Post by Kazu on Jun 5, 2017 14:17:26 GMT
Will you show me the source if I say pretty please? If it is then we maybe have to ask ourselves if it is better to take the guaranteed UR every 1.5 million if things get ugly, or to stick with the one million safety net. Source: bsn.boards.net/thread/10590/expert-packs-millions-credit-dataNobody has repeated the experiment because nobody wants to spend that many credits for such a poor return. Thus we are taking the results somewhat on faith. As for your second sentence. Are you seriously proposing that it is better to spend 1.5 million for 1 guaranteed UR rather than 1 million for 1 guaranteed UR? I don't know how to respond to that. Thanks for the link. That completely slipped my mind. It is ok if we take it on faith I suppose. You dont have to respond to that since that was pretty much thinking about something too early and too "loud". When I wrote that I was under the assumption, again numbers completely slipped my mind, that the drop rates where something like 15% expert vs 20% premum. Any suggestion for video recording/editing software for if I record my next purchase?
|
|