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Post by B. Hieronymus Da on Oct 8, 2016 13:40:39 GMT
"Predicting Climate is Easier than Predicting Weather" When you discredit and devalue the past data so much, you can't assume you can predict. and wattsupwiththat.com/2013/04/08/rebuttal-to-the-attack-on-dr-don-easterbrook/Yep, when most Data are politically abused in a PC model to use as an agenda for the green industry. It's actually an ideology now. Half of Europe was covered in Ice till at least 18000 years ago. I think another Ice Age is more dangerous than +3 C degree raise on earth (which can be nature made). BTW you didn't attack my conclusion. My simple "Mesozoic life flourish conclusion" is priceless. Nothing can scratch it. Scientific knowledge is a sort of map which correlates to reality. It's composed of many, many models and fragments which all make up a cohesive whole, which hangs together. When a model can't be dismissed, but rather continue to hold true, fits the data, as subsequent observations and experiments are added, it increases the viability. This is the very key to knowledge. The thing Western Civilization got right. That understanding is unfortunately horribly missing in the general public and media, who'd much rather jump onto one of the - by Phaedrus's Law predicted - for practical purposes unlimited amount of hypotheses, and then selectively look for 'facts' that seem to confirm that chosen hypothesis. That's anti-science. The reason most scientists, and in particular most climate research scientists, have a great deal of confidence in the theory of man-made global warming, is that it fits. There are a great number of different climate models going on around the world, but they all have two things in common: 1 - They fit observations uncannily well. 2 - The real global warming outpaces the models, so the models are somewhat on the conservative side (which they in most cases are by intent). So it's not so much NASA's and others' measurements directly, which drive the Global Warming conviction. It's the very fact that the measurements fit the model. Let me illustrate with an example of this "fitting the model". An example that should be easy to comprehend. The models predict the Antarctic ice will grow in thickness and Arctic ice will diminish. And what do we observe? This inspires confidence in that the model has some relevant accuracy. This doesn't stop internet simpleton propagandists to proclaim that the growth of Antarctic ice "proves" that global warming is false. It's all in the understanding. There is no reason to expect that colder climate would cause the Antarctic ice to grow thicker. There is no reason to expect that warmer climate would cause the Antarctic ice to diminish. Those notions are just examples of how shallow intuition might lead you wrong. It's very cold inland in Antarctica. So cold that ice doesn't melt. Small effects from global warming doesn't change that fundamental fact. For the ice to grow, more water is needed. Antarctica is a desert. Global warming will cause more downfall over Antarctica, thus thicker ice. Thicker ice drives faster ice rivers, which drives out the ice shelves faster which will cause larger ice bergs to break off. Pretty much exactly what has been observed. Don Easterbrook hasn't been able to disprove the theory, even if it may seem so to a casual observer of all the manure he throws up. On the contrary. Scientists argue between them a lot and don't wholesale participate in any kinds of conspiracies. That should be obvious to most persons of sane reason. But the paranoid suggestion that they do, pose a very interesting question: Who are you then going to trust to tell you the true nature of things? Priests? Thousands of years old legends? "PC"? "Green"? The notion that emissions of CO2 would drive up global temperature is very old. It follows naturally from physical and chemical facts. And it has been around a lot longer than environmental concern and PC-awareness. It's just that climate and atmosphere are very complex things, and scientists have struggled to get the tools to enable studying it. It has really only come in age with modern computer technology and global data collection. Scientists do make mistakes though. And science itself is sometimes "wrong". But of course. And they're also rather conservative. They don't all, immediately, jump onto new bandwagons, even if the old accepted idea fails at fitting the facts at many annoying points, while the new one maybe does. But as, at least the Natural Sciences part of, science is mainly occupied by further scrutinizing their own knowledge, they're also the best at finding out. You find no more critical 'critical thinking' anywhere else. Easterbrook first of all fails to make a convincing argument. He holds up the past. But we know preciously little about the far past. And what we know does not shoot down existing models, only emphasize that there are things we don't know. Then he has also been found out to misrepresent data, misrepresent the relevance of data, and finally also falsify data. The rebuttal you linked to doesn't contain any relevant information that I think amounts to much of a defense of Easterbrook. ... But he might well be right about some things!
And let's hope so, because otherwise our children are toast. We might be headed into a new ice age. Which would give us ample time to get greenhouse effects into some kind of control. The Sun is a bigger factor than emissions of greenhouse gases so far. He is though probably wrong about "cycles". It's an old intuitive 'understanding' that doesn't quite hold up in modern mathematics. The problem here is that when you look at something retrospectively, you can always find a pattern of 'cycles' that seem to fit. But these cycles are unreliable to make predictions from. Start anywhere in the middle of the data, hide the continuation, look for a pattern of cycles, make a prediction, reveal what happened - did the prediction hold true? No it didn't. There are of course true cycles, but relying on cycles is a precarious method.
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Beregond5
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Games: Mass Effect Trilogy, Dragon Age: Origins, Dragon Age 2, Dragon Age Inquistion, KOTOR, Jade Empire
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Post by Beregond5 on Oct 8, 2016 13:57:47 GMT
You can't fold a piece of paper more than seven times. Holes in pen lids were introduced to prevent suffocation in case one gets lodged in the airway. Starfish don't have actual brains. (That explains Patrick. )
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Post by nanotm on Oct 8, 2016 14:50:02 GMT
Vladimir Putin has been awarded a nobel peace prize
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Post by Arijon van Goyen on Oct 8, 2016 14:54:48 GMT
By PC I meant this and that discussion ends here, because unlike some people I don't waste my time reading and writing walls of nonsense.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2016 15:14:57 GMT
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brown_noteJust... wow if they ever manage to make that ill be wearing ear plugs constantly... More facts: If you get bitten by a Boomslang snake youll bleed from every hole in your body (ewwww) Women have twice as many pain receptors as men Dragonflies are some of the most efficient predators in the world
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These pretzels are making me thirsty!!!
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Post by Kenny Bania on Oct 8, 2016 19:16:53 GMT
You can't fold a piece of paper more than seven times. I refuse to believe this.
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On holiday on Dantooine. This whole "vengeance on the Jedi" thing gets very tiring after a while.
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Post by Darth Dennis on Oct 8, 2016 20:06:35 GMT
Vladimir Putin has been awarded a nobel peace prize Adolf Hitler was Time: Man of the year 1938.
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Beregond5
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Post by Beregond5 on Oct 8, 2016 20:28:26 GMT
You can't fold a piece of paper more than seven times. I refuse to believe this. Well, the mythbusters did bust the myth, admittedly. But it took a *really* big sheet of paper. XD
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KSSSSHK, PAYDAY!
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Post by Voluptuous Volus on Oct 8, 2016 20:50:51 GMT
Vladimir Putin has been awarded a nobel peace prize Adolf Hitler was Time: Man of the year 1938. Stalin was in 1939 and 1942
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Post by Voluptuous Volus on Oct 8, 2016 20:57:50 GMT
Vladimir Putin has been awarded a nobel peace prize Barack Obama was rewarded a Nobel Peace prize U.S. Military Budgets 1948-2015 Obama FY2010-15 $663.4 billion per year Bush Jr FY2002-09* $634.9 “ “ “ Clinton FY1994-2001 $418.0 “ “ “ Bush Sr FY1990-93 $513.4 “ “ “ Reagan FY1982-89 $565.0 “ “ “ Carter FY1978-81 $428.1 “ “ “ Ford FY1976-77 $406.7 “ “ “ Nixon FY1970-75 $441.7 “ “ “ Johnson FY1965-69 $527.3 “ “ “ Kennedy FY1962-64 $457.2 “ “ “ Eisenhower FY1954-61 $416.3 “ “ “ Truman FY1948-53 $375.7 “ “ “ The U.S. military receives more generous funding than the rest of the 10 largest militaries in the world combined (China, Saudi Arabia, Russia, U.K., France, Japan, India, Germany & South Korea)
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2016 22:22:59 GMT
I refuse to believe this. Well, the mythbusters did bust the myth, admittedly. But it took a *really* big sheet of paper. XD Oh those poor trees...
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Post by Voluptuous Volus on Oct 8, 2016 23:01:33 GMT
This one is really fucked up ....back during world war 2...when almost every company stopped selling their products to Nazi Germany, Coca-Cola still wanted to sell the nazi's soda but they knew it would be frowned upon..so they invented Fanta as a way to continue selling soda to them. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fanta
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Post by Giant Ambush Beetle on Oct 8, 2016 23:29:18 GMT
Another fact that blows my mind whenever I think about is that that every 5 years 98% of my body's cells will have been replaced with new ones. Some of my cells in my brain will re-arrange, new synapses will form, cell patterns and structures will change, some errors will occur - which will inevitably alter the way my brain processes information, my character and my decision-making. Basically, that means I'm in a constant metamorphosis. Which is a scary thought because that means my self is not constant and every day I'm a slightly different person. Heck, even my memories will be altered as well. I bet even now my childhood memories have been altered and warped by the constant regeneration process and they're no longer completely accurate or true. I wonder if there will be a day when I'm old and I no longer understand the thought processes and decisions young-me made because I have changed so much that I have become a completely different person. Talk about an identity crisis.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 9, 2016 6:03:02 GMT
Every and each atom of your body is star made. Meaning that all the atoms in the universe have come to existence in stars going super nova.
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Post by mattig89ch on Oct 9, 2016 8:33:40 GMT
Every and each atom of your body is star made. Meaning that all the atoms in the universe have come to existence in stars going super nova. If you ever read the lost fleet series, the imaginary religion is based off this. Worshiping the 'living stars', saying a persons life is the darkness between points of light (being part of a star). Its an interesting idea, as far as fake religions go.
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Post by Voluptuous Volus on Oct 9, 2016 21:07:23 GMT
I find this hilarious:
The average reelection rate for incumbents for at least the last 50 years has been about 95%. Even in 1994, the year of the so-called "Gingrich Revolution" in which Republicans gained 54 seats in the House of Representatives, fully 90% of House incumbents were reelected. In 2000, the Center for Responsive Politics made a list of 237 seats it thought would be won by landside margins (i.e., over 20%). -- 98% of House incumbents won reelection that year. -- Only 1 of the 237 seats was won by less than 20%. -- That seat was won by an 18% margin. In 2002, the reelection rate was 88% in the Senate and 96% in the House. In the 2004 election for the House of Representatives, -- Over 85% of House incumbents won by landslides of more than 60%. -- Only 7 incumbents of 399 running (2%) were not reelected. -- Outside of Texas (where redistricting led to the defeat of four targeted Democrats) only 3 incumbents were not reelected. -- In the remaining 49 states, the reelection rate exceeded 99%. In 2010, the incumbent reelection rate was 87% for the House and 84% for the Senate. In 2012, the incumbent reelection rate increased to 90% for the House and 91% for the Senate And in 2014, according to Politifact, despite the fact that Congress only had an 11% approval ratings, 96.4 % of incumbent lawmakers were re-elected in 2014. House elections have become significantly less competitive over time: -- In the 1950s: between 20-25% of contested House seats were decided by margins of 10 points or less. -- 2000 - 2002: less than 3% of house seats were decided by a margin of less than 10%. -- Reelection rates to state legislatures are, on average, even higher than that for the U.S. Congress. -- In the final analysis, the reelection rate in the U.S. is not significantly different from the reappointment rate to such unelected legislative chambers as the National People's Congress in China and the Politburo in the former Soviet Union.
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Post by mrsanomaly on Oct 9, 2016 23:08:15 GMT
I find this hilarious: The average reelection rate for incumbents for at least the last 50 years has been about 95%. Even in 1994, the year of the so-called "Gingrich Revolution" in which Republicans gained 54 seats in the House of Representatives, fully 90% of House incumbents were reelected. In 2000, the Center for Responsive Politics made a list of 237 seats it thought would be won by landside margins (i.e., over 20%). -- 98% of House incumbents won reelection that year. -- Only 1 of the 237 seats was won by less than 20%. -- That seat was won by an 18% margin. In 2002, the reelection rate was 88% in the Senate and 96% in the House. In the 2004 election for the House of Representatives, -- Over 85% of House incumbents won by landslides of more than 60%. -- Only 7 incumbents of 399 running (2%) were not reelected. -- Outside of Texas (where redistricting led to the defeat of four targeted Democrats) only 3 incumbents were not reelected. -- In the remaining 49 states, the reelection rate exceeded 99%. In 2010, the incumbent reelection rate was 87% for the House and 84% for the Senate. In 2012, the incumbent reelection rate increased to 90% for the House and 91% for the Senate And in 2014, according to Politifact, despite the fact that Congress only had an 11% approval ratings, 96.4 % of incumbent lawmakers were re-elected in 2014. House elections have become significantly less competitive over time: -- In the 1950s: between 20-25% of contested House seats were decided by margins of 10 points or less. -- 2000 - 2002: less than 3% of house seats were decided by a margin of less than 10%. -- Reelection rates to state legislatures are, on average, even higher than that for the U.S. Congress. -- In the final analysis, the reelection rate in the U.S. is not significantly different from the reappointment rate to such unelected legislative chambers as the National People's Congress in China and the Politburo in the former Soviet Union.tl;dr We are lazy voters and very few people run for politics.
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Post by mrsanomaly on Oct 9, 2016 23:09:04 GMT
Every and each atom of your body is star made. Meaning that all the atoms in the universe have come to existence in stars going super nova. If you ever read the lost fleet series, the imaginary religion is based off this. Worshiping the 'living stars', saying a persons life is the darkness between points of light (being part of a star). Its an interesting idea, as far as fake religions go. Ha! I've read a lot of the series. Fun stuff but pls more editing
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Post by Lavochkin on Oct 10, 2016 0:48:19 GMT
Adolf Hitler was Time: Man of the year 1938. Stalin was in 1939 and 1942 Yep, and "man of the year" was just in reference to how much impact they had on the world. It wasn't an honorary title.
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Post by mattig89ch on Oct 10, 2016 4:52:03 GMT
If you ever read the lost fleet series, the imaginary religion is based off this. Worshiping the 'living stars', saying a persons life is the darkness between points of light (being part of a star). Its an interesting idea, as far as fake religions go. Ha! I've read a lot of the series. Fun stuff but pls more editing Awesome to meet someone who's read the lost fleet! Very few have. I never knew I needed realistic fleet combat in my books until this series. The first black fleet books come really close to scratching that particular itch too. The second one kind of jumps the shark, and I haven't read the third one. What do you mean by editing? Did I mis-spell something?
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Deerber
N3
Claymore & Drell
Games: Mass Effect Trilogy, KOTOR, Baldur's Gate, Neverwinter Nights
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Post by Deerber on Oct 10, 2016 11:13:31 GMT
By PC I meant this and that discussion ends here, because I'm one of the many people who can't stand being proven wrong and whenever that happens I close the interaction and pretend it didn't
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Deerber
N3
Claymore & Drell
Games: Mass Effect Trilogy, KOTOR, Baldur's Gate, Neverwinter Nights
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Post by Deerber on Oct 10, 2016 11:14:44 GMT
Besides, it's clear that climate change is definitely not human-dependant:
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Post by Arijon van Goyen on Oct 10, 2016 12:43:33 GMT
My main point was this: GLOBAL WARMING IS A GOOD THING FOR ALL LIFEAnalyses of oxygen isotopes in marine fossils suggest that Jurassic global temperatures were generally quite warm. Geochemical evidence suggests that surface waters in the low latitudes were about 20 °C (68 °F), while deep waters were about 17 °C (63 °F). www.britannica.com/science/Jurassic-PeriodMy second point was: and IT IS NOT EVEN MAN MADE.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2016 15:22:12 GMT
My main point was this: GLOBAL WARMING IS A GOOD THING FOR ALL LIFEAnalyses of oxygen isotopes in marine fossils suggest that Jurassic global temperatures were generally quite warm. Geochemical evidence suggests that surface waters in the low latitudes were about 20 °C (68 °F), while deep waters were about 17 °C (63 °F). www.britannica.com/science/Jurassic-PeriodMy second point was: and IT IS NOT EVEN MAN MADE. That was like 150 million years ago... just because it kinda worked for life then doesnt mean it is good for life now... I mean last time I checked I wasnt a dinosaur and after hundreds of millions of years life has changed and wont react the same way. Youre also ignoring the droughts, diseases, changes in the quality of available food... and after all theres a prediction that 1/4 of the earths species could be extinct/going extinct by 2050 because of climate change. If it was a good and healthy thing to happen people wouldnt be opposing it
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Post by Arijon van Goyen on Oct 10, 2016 15:34:02 GMT
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