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Post by Deleted on Apr 8, 2018 22:03:53 GMT
Current Votes: Catilina 2 votes Space Cowboy 3 votes
Still to Vote: nada
I believe there is a lot of discussion still going, so I am not doing the countdown yet.
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Post by Space Cowboy on Apr 8, 2018 22:19:19 GMT
Well folks, one hero is agreeing with the two spies. What are you going to do about it?
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Post by Space Cowboy on Apr 8, 2018 22:22:01 GMT
Thanks for believing in me. It's a bit of a shot in the dark however. Hopefully Cati isn't our third ally. I suppose we'll find out if my trust was well placed. You have the box to thank, however, because I kind of agree with the others that your voting has been a bit all over the place, but I really just don't trust any sort of mystery box. I feel like it was designed specifically to make a mess of things lol Why would a spy's voting be all over the place? They would be more careful. Right? That logic has never made sense to me
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Post by sgtreed24 on Apr 9, 2018 0:32:37 GMT
I suppose we'll find out if my trust was well placed. You have the box to thank, however, because I kind of agree with the others that your voting has been a bit all over the place, but I really just don't trust any sort of mystery box. I feel like it was designed specifically to make a mess of things lol Why would a spy's voting be all over the place? They would be more careful. Right? That logic has never made sense to me One would think! However, from what I've learned in my little over 2 games played here... any strategy is possible. lol
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Post by pelassarias on Apr 9, 2018 0:53:28 GMT
Well that was no surprise. I even said to Adonniel when I failed to find an egg that I hoped I wouldn't be attacked in the night. So in short, if you cannot trust my shady self or the talking bunny, then trust the voting patternOn the whole I'd agree with this, although it is possible the spies are messing with the voting patterns because they know people (like myself) are going to study them. Here are a few thoughts that may help: The only person who has reason to hold a grudge against me from the last round is Reed. However, would Reed really be stupid enough to eliminate me and make himself the obvious suspect? So probably I was eliminated to frame Reed. Space claims to have found the Golden Egg the previous night and used it to protect me. That would make sense as, in all modesty, I am a strong player. However, he then directed suspicion at me initially before voting for Reed. Why protect me and then throw suspicion at me? Also when he said he had flipped a coin over me, he also said he thought it unlikely that Catilina or Reed were spies again, yet after my defence in contradiction of his statement, he votes for Reed instead of Romice, then changes to Romice and then back to Reed. Anyway, it seems to me that initially voting for Reed, removing it to vote for Romice and then restoring it to Reed, suggests to me that if Space is a spy, then Reed is not. I must admit I find Space constantly changing of vote and then apologising to the victim a little less convincing now. Obviously in the first round there is a chance of hitting an innocent person instead of a spy. Why apologise to Reed before the result is known when he ends up in the firing line after you have voted for him twice? That said, I wouldn't trust that Easter Bunny in the slightest. Is he a truthsayer bunny or a mischief and mayhem bunny? I still hold to the idea that Catilina and Romice can't both be spies, so if one is the other isn't. I steadfastly refused to vote for Catilina the first round, opting for Romice (saying I was allying with Catilina) and then Reed (when Romice's action seemed to make her look innocent), so if Catilina is a spy why eliminate me? Surely I would have been a good person to cultivate as an ally? Anyway I don't envy you guys trying to sort this one out. All you have to go on is the word of a rabbit and voting patterns that may have been manipulated by crafty veteran players. Good Luck. Thanks for the help gervaise! After reading your point of view I'm definitely keeping my vote where it is since Space's behavior and voting seems the most suspicious and odd out of the rest of the players. Mind you, the rest of the three players have struck me a little odd and suspicious so far, and I'm sure I've been a little odd as well, but Space is sticking out to me more than the rest. I honestly hope Space is the spy, but if he isn't, try not to get too mad at me Heroes! I tried my best! As for who could be the other spy (If Space is spy), I'll wait to see the final votes from the rest of the players to truly decide, but I'm definitely going to consider the fact that you and Cati were a bit of allies during the first round. If Cati is spy, it wouldn't have been sound eliminating you so quickly since you would have been a great ally for awhile.
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Post by Space Cowboy on Apr 9, 2018 1:13:21 GMT
Thanks for the help gervaise! After reading your point of view I'm definitely keeping my vote where it is since Space's behavior and voting seems the most suspicious and odd out of the rest of the players. So you are agreeing with the spies then? Interesting.. You do realize the only one not voting for me is Reed, right? Do you think the spies would split their vote? Reed is most likely innocent.
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Post by romice on Apr 9, 2018 7:51:31 GMT
Wow, I really don't know which side should I believe. Worse, I feel like the might be a spy on both sides. If that were the case, than it's pela and reed who are spies, as I know I'm innocent and they are the ones free of votes. If it's not like than, then the spy teams are either pela and cati or space and reed. From these two it's more likely that pela and cati are the spies, since they never tried to seem connected to each other, contrary to space and reed. Now, both of these options would suggest that pela is the spy, but she has no votes for her, so if I was to change my vote to her, I'd need someone to ally with me and that's hard, as I don't really trust any of you (nothing personal, just this game always makes me paranoid ). What to do, what to do...
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Post by Space Cowboy on Apr 9, 2018 10:03:57 GMT
I'm willing to change my vote romice. Are you certain Cati is not a spy?
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Post by gervaise21 on Apr 9, 2018 10:05:45 GMT
One would think! However, from what I've learned in my little over 2 games played here... any strategy is possible. lol Reed is learning very quickly on the job. Yes, almost any strategy is possible. Nothing is "typical" of either individuals or spies. I feel a slight sense of responsibility for the voting here as Pela has cited me as confirming her suspicions. However, I did also say that I don't trust the bunny, after all it was brought to you by the same devious mind that invented "Shrink the Heart" and "Heartbreaker/Death by Chocolate" (that chocolate idea was originally Adonniel's, I ran with it.) Now if the bunny had popped out and declared "Space is totally innocent" would you have been so quick to believe him? That after all is what the bunny would have said if it was a truthsayer bunny and the person who found it was innocent. However, if the bunny really wanted to create mischief, then it would declare the opposite to what the person really was. In which case it would declare an innocent person guilty and a guilty person innocent. Which is why, personally, I would have been cautious about following its advice. So a few further thoughts: If Space is the spy then Reed isn't and vice versa. The fact is that Reed left his vote until last to watch what others did and then voted WITH Space. That is suicidal if Reed knows Space to be a fellow spy because when Space is revealed, everyone would point the finger at Reed for supporting him. Certainly, if I was a spy and voting last I would go with the consensus and let my fellow spy burn because it is essential one spy makes it through to the end. On the other hand, if Reed knows Space to be innocent, why leave it so long before voting and then vote with him, creating the possibility of someone else being voted off instead? Because that person is also innocent. This would suggest that if Reed is the spy, then Catilina isn't. I am not quite so confident about following this logic if Space is the spy. When Pela pointed out who Space had voted for in the first round, the only person not on the list was Catilina. If Space and Catilina are the spies, then by immediately throwing a vote at Catilina that avoids the accusation being made later after Space is voted off. Then if other people bite and vote off Catilina, Space is still safe and having led the vote against a spy would seem to have proven his innocence and that the bunny was lying. Once again, looking at the voting, it is clear that at least one person in the other group: Pelassarias, Romice and Catilina, has to be a spy. If Space and Reed are innocent then both the spies are in this group. As I have pointed out previously, I think it highly unlikely that Romice and Catilina are both spies because of voting for each other in the first round. It is often safer for the spies to hedge their bets in such a situation and put one in each group but not vote for each other when there are alternatives. Whilst Reed didn't vote for Romice in the first round, nor was he in a hurry to save her when she seemed in danger after votes were removed from Space, so I think they are unlikely to be working together. So likely pairings are: Pelassarias/Reed - When Space is proven innocent, Reed is in the clear - otherwise Pela's actions are too high risk for a spy (see below). Space/Catilina - If Space is going down then deflect suspicion from his ally Space/Pelassarias - Ditto Pelassarias/Romice or Catilina - To my mind the only combinations if both are voting in the same group. If Space is innocent then jumping in to vote for him so quickly would be a high risk tactic for a spy. Better to wait for someone else to respond to the bunny first. However, if Space and Pela were working together then it would make more sense as when Space is revealed as a spy, Pela is now the hero for leading the charge. When Pela returned to justify the vote with evidence, Space was able to counter this by voting for Cati, removing his retaliatory vote on Pela. Of course Space could be the spy and Pela is innocent. If you suspect these two of working together then I'd definitely stick with Space for now. I don't believe that either Romice and Reed are working together or Romice and Catilina. So if you suspect Romice then she has to be working with either Space or Pela. There are other possible pairings with either Space or Pela but they could both be innocent so I've just gone with the most likely. I could be totally wrong about this but on the whole, if one thing holds true, it is that the spies will have a strategy. Just because it looks as though two people could not possibly be working together doesn't mean they aren't. However, certain behaviour would seem too high risk to be true, which is why I have discounted certain pairings. If I am wrong about this then currently the spies are laughing to themselves. All I would say is that if you are an innocent party, then take a close look at the possible pairings. If I have paired you with someone and they are also paired with someone you suspect, then it is possible they are the spies. If after reading all this you are still totally confused, my apologies, please ignore me and just go with your gut instinct, it is often the best.
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Post by Space Cowboy on Apr 9, 2018 10:35:26 GMT
Great analysis Gervaise!
Why do you suspect Cati so little though? Knowing myself innocent it seems likely he is a spy and the other spy is reluctant to vote for him.
Pela sticks to her bunny guns and Romice says she thinks myself and Reed are probably innocent. But if that's the case then pela and cat are spies. Yet she says she will change to pela if others do. But if shes innocent then why not vote cat?
Remember the spies win if a hero is voted out. It makes no difference which hero. It won't matter. There will be no next round to point fingers.
So if cat is innocent why would the spies not follow my lead too and vote for him?
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Post by gervaise21 on Apr 9, 2018 11:02:13 GMT
Well assuming you are innocent, then one of the spies could already be voting for Cati (Reed), so naturally the other spy would not wish to change their vote as they have both bases covered.
If both you and Reed are innocent and Cati is the spy then that means there is only one innocent person in the other group. Assuming that Romice is genuine then the other spy is Pela. I've already said that I do not believe that Romice and Cati are working together, so Pela/Cati is the only combination if the rest of you are innocent.
Everyone has two possible changes of vote but you have only one so if you change and others do not follow suit, then you are screwed. So I can understand why you are reluctant to change from Cati as you do only need one more person to change to your group to be saved whereas it needs two people to change to anyone else.
Do you trust Reed? Remember I had to force Reed into voting elsewhere after Romice had removed her vote from you, thus placing herself in danger. You could do nothing about this since you had already used up all your votes, so I switched my vote from Romice to Reed in order to force him into making a decision as he was now the one in danger. Then he voted for Fylimar because he knew she couldn't retaliate against him and an innocent was voted off. This could have merely been unfortunate but why Fylimar and not Pela? Personally, I'd be wanting both Romice and Reed to change their vote to Pela before I was willing to commit myself but even then one of them could change back to you at the last minute.
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Post by Catilina on Apr 9, 2018 11:20:08 GMT
Great analysis Gervaise! Why do you suspect Cati so little though? Knowing myself innocent it seems likely he is a spy and the other spy is reluctant to vote for him. Pela sticks to her bunny guns and Romice says she thinks myself and Reed are probably innocent. But if that's the case then pela and cat are spies. Yet she says she will change to pela if others do. But if shes innocent then why not vote cat? Remember the spies win if a hero is voted out. It makes no difference which hero. It won't matter. There will be no next round to point fingers. So if cat is innocent why would the spies not follow my lead too and vote for him? I don't know, how I can convince you and Reed, I'm innocent. And why I would try it? Of course, if you guys are spy, then my arguments will not help me. So: I keep my vote on you.
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Post by romice on Apr 9, 2018 12:09:25 GMT
I'm willing to change my vote romice. Are you certain Cati is not a spy? No, I'm not certain of anything other than myself being innocent. But from the options I stated and from what garvaise said pela is present in the most probable spy pairs. Romice says she thinks myself and Reed are probably innocent. I did't say that. I think it's not probable that BOTH of you are spies, but one of you could be. Every hero has a 50/50 chance of getting the spy right and we don't have any real evidence. But I'll follow my gut feeling, which says that pela is one of the Venatori. I'll change my vote from space cowboy to pelassarias. Take that as you will
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Post by gervaise21 on Apr 9, 2018 12:56:42 GMT
Now it will be interesting to see what happens next.
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Post by fylimar on Apr 9, 2018 13:35:07 GMT
Now it will be interesting to see what happens next. Agreed - I was not following this thread a few hours and had over a page reading to do
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Post by Space Cowboy on Apr 9, 2018 13:48:56 GMT
Now it will be interesting to see what happens next. I'm going to follow your advice and see what Reed and Pela say. The heroes need to all be on the same page or we lose. This isn't about saving me. This is about winning or losing this round. Right now romice avoiding cat for little reason is suspicious. If she is a spy and so is cat then it would make sense that she wants to change to pela. On the other hand the spies need to do nothing as the way it stands they've won. So it will be interesting to see what pela does. You asked If I trust Reed. Well at the moment he seems to me to be the most trustworthy. Romice being willing to change her vote also seems trustworthy. To a point. If she believes Cat innocent then Reed and pela are spies. Pela could be another innocent and just easily swayed by rabbits however.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2018 14:33:54 GMT
Current Votes: Catilina 2 votes Space Cowboy 2 votes pelassarias 1 vote
Still to Vote: nada
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Post by gervaise21 on Apr 9, 2018 14:52:26 GMT
Right now romice avoiding cat for little reason is suspicious. If she is a spy and so is cat then it would make sense that she wants to change to pela.
I just feel that the actions of Romice in relation to Cati in the first round would be strange if they were working together. Essentially Catilina was first to vote and voted for Romice. Then Reed voted for you, followed by Romice. On the face of it that would suggest Romice avoiding a retaliatory vote on Catilina but why would Catilina have voted for Romice in the first place if they were in league?
Then when you changed your vote to Romice and discovered that I had already joined Catilina in voting for her, you changed your mind and swapped back to Reed. Then Romice had a change of heart about you but instead of joining you in voting for Reed, she voted for Catilina, who up to then had no votes at all, leaving Romice the only person with two votes. This was a high risk strategy as Reed had already indicated changing his vote, so he could have voted for Catilina too. That being the case, if Romice and Catilina were both spies, she had put them both in the firing line. For this reason, I really feel that Romice and Catilina are not working as a team. One of them may be a spy but they can't both be spies. I also think that Romice's voting behaviour does not seem consistent with a spy. So I think her reason for changing to Pela instead of Cati is genuine.
It is what Cati, Pela and Reed do that will be interesting. Incidentally why are you so convinced of Cati's guilt but not Pela?
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Post by sgtreed24 on Apr 9, 2018 15:37:47 GMT
I think everyone is overlooking the idea that an agent could very well vote for a teammate in order to sway the voting and/or confuse people trying to look at voting patterns.
So who is to say that Cati/Romice couldn't be in league with each other just because they voted against each other? Romice's vote only gave Cati 1 vote which, at the time, wasn't enough to be in danger. Cati's vote for Romice was at the very beginning just starting out when no one knows anything. And should either of them be eliminated and revealed as the spy, the other could have an easy path to victory.
That coupled with my lack of belief in the mystery box is why I think these two are the most suspicious (and that at least one of them is possibly the spy). I voted for Cati because he already had 1 vote and it seemed the best way to try to help someone I think is a possible hero.
That said, perhaps Pela could be an agent. She did agree with everyone that space was looking innocent then after the mystery box suddenly decides he is evil and hasn't swayed from that since. Potentially looking to goad others into the same belief, thus sealing her victory once again.
I'm not against switching, but we have to make sure we decide on the right person and that we all (the heroes) vote the same.
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Post by Space Cowboy on Apr 9, 2018 16:17:49 GMT
I agree, Reed. We should all be on the same page.
Ok. A summary of what I'm thinking.
Reed is innocent. Why? Because as a spy he would know I'm innocent, and I already had 3 votes. Vote me out and the spies win. Vote out any hero and the spies win so he would have no motive to play games My fate was already sealed.
I'm not certain of the others. At this point Cati may not be guilty but others reacting to him being the second target are telling.
Vote out hero Cati and again the spies win. All the spy needs to do is agree with Reed and I. But they aren't. Why? Most likely because he is also a spy.
Reed and gervaise make good cases for why romice may or may not be a spy. They are conflicting however.
But here's the thing. Why switch to Pela now instead of Cat? She doesn't entirely trust Reed or me if she is a hero, which is understandable.
But if she were a spy then again as long as one hero stays on me she has no motive to switch to anybody else.
This leaves Pela. If she is a hero and sincerely doesn't trust me then she's got a problem because Reed and I could be convinced she is the spy and join romice. And yet again, hero Pela being voted out wins the game for the spies.
So I'm very interested in seeing what Pela will do.
I'm leading towards pela and cat being the spies. However, as Reed said he and I will have to both agree before switching, and only if Pela doesn't mount a convincing defense.
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Post by fylimar on Apr 9, 2018 17:07:05 GMT
I agree, Reed. We should all be on the same page. Ok. A summary of what I'm thinking. Reed is innocent. Why? Because as a spy he would know I'm innocent, and I already had 3 votes. Vote me out and the spies win. Vote out any hero and the spies win so he would have no motive to play games My fate was already sealed. I'm not certain of the others. At this point Cati may not be guilty but others reacting to him being the second target are telling. Vote out hero Cati and again the spies win. All the spy needs to do is agree with Reed and I. But they aren't. Why? Most likely because he is also a spy. Reed and gervaise make good cases for why romice may or may not be a spy. They are conflicting however. But here's the thing. Why switch to Pela now instead of Cat? She doesn't entirely trust Reed or me if she is a hero, which is understandable. But if she were a spy then again as long as one hero stays on me she has no motive to switch to anybody else. This leaves Pela. If she is a hero and sincerely doesn't trust me then she's got a problem because Reed and I could be convinced she is the spy and join romice. And yet again, hero Pela being voted out wins the game for the spies. So I'm very interested in seeing what Pela will do. I'm leading towards pela and cat being the spies. However, as Reed said he and I will have to both agree before switching, and only if Pela doesn't mount a convincing defense. Those are good arguments, but you forgot the possibility, that the spies might mess a bit more with the heroes at the moment. Adonniel hasn't announced a deadline yet, so maybe the spies are just playing a bit with their votes at the moment and switch in the last possible moment - a bit Jokeresque, 'wanting to see the world burn' and all that - that would point to Cati, because we know, he likes a bit of mischief, but also to you, space, because you like chaotic decisions for the fun. WHat I wanted to say is, don't get too sure yet and don't wast your vote changes now.
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Post by Space Cowboy on Apr 9, 2018 17:33:36 GMT
Those are good arguments, but you forgot the possibility, that the spies might mess a bit more with the heroes at the moment. Adonniel hasn't announced a deadline yet, so maybe the spies are just playing a bit with their votes at the moment and switch in the last possible moment - a bit Jokeresque, 'wanting to see the world burn' and all that - that would point to Cati, because we know, he likes a bit of mischief, but also to you, space, because you like chaotic decisions for the fun. WHat I wanted to say is, don't get too sure yet and don't wast your vote changes now. Who me? Hehe. Good points. I'll definitely wait a bit.
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Aug 20, 2017 17:56:10 GMT
August 2017
pelassarias
Mass Effect Trilogy, Dragon Age: Origins, Dragon Age 2, Dragon Age Inquisition, Mass Effect Legendary Edition
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Post by pelassarias on Apr 9, 2018 17:51:29 GMT
Thanks for the help gervaise! After reading your point of view I'm definitely keeping my vote where it is since Space's behavior and voting seems the most suspicious and odd out of the rest of the players. So you are agreeing with the spies then? Interesting.. You do realize the only one not voting for me is Reed, right? Do you think the spies would split their vote? Reed is most likely innocent. The reason why I've stuck to my vote Space is to confirm my suspicion about Romice (I'm sorry but a person can't always reveal their cards so soon! ). I knew she was going to switch and it seems I'm right. Let's say that you are innocent Space, that means I have made it easy for the spies Cati and Romice. After gervaise's post however, these possible two are feeling pressure, hence why Romice switched to me and why Cati just might as well if he's Romice's accomplice. If you aren't innocent, then the person most likely to be your accomplice is Romice. You put Reed up for the tiebreaker, so he's innocent. You were deadset on Cati awhile ago so no to him as well. So Romice is the only one left. You voted for her the first round, but you quickly switched when you realized you doomed her. Now it's seems you're willing to ally with her right now. Also if you two are in cahoots, then I knew Romice would eventually switch her vote to someone else, which she did. Either way, it seems like Romice is the common denominator here. If you truly are a Hero, then you would not have an issue voting for Romice. If you vote for Romice, I'll follow. But if you stick to your vote or vote me off, then it's game over for the Heroes. ETA: (Unless Cati and Reed switch to Romice or someone switches back to you and you are spy) As for Reed, you're one of the players who realize Cati/Romice could be accomplices if Space is innocent. I agree with this, but I'm more suspicious of Romice since she's more likely a spy either way. If you, and one other person- Cati or Space are willing to switch to Romice then I'll switch since I'm as suspicious of her as Space. If not, then I'll keep my vote where it is.
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∯ Oh Loredy...
455
0
Oct 10, 2024 18:16:56 GMT
30,158
gervaise21
12,739
August 2016
gervaise21
Mass Effect Trilogy, Dragon Age: Origins, Dragon Age 2, Dragon Age Inquisition, Baldur's Gate, Neverwinter Nights
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Post by gervaise21 on Apr 9, 2018 18:58:22 GMT
I agree that I think Reed is pretty much in the clear. If Space is innocent and Reed is the spy then it would make more sense simply to vote with everyone else and get Space voted off. If Space is guilty, then I've already said, it would make no sense for a fellow spy to ally with him after everyone else had voted.
That means there has to be at least one spy in the other group of Pela, Cati and Romice.
If Romice is a spy, I think it more likely that she is working with Space than Cati. I'm sorry but you do not make your first vote before anyone else on a fellow spy, which is what Cati did in the previous round, when there were six alternatives without arousing suspicion.
On the other hand, it is possible that Space and Romice were pulling some elaborate ruse in the previous round, when both were in danger, and are attempting the same thing now when Space is in danger.
Romice is clearly not working with Pela and I have also discounted her working with Reed or Cati. So the only person Romice could be working with if guilty is Space. Otherwise if Space is innocent then Romice is innocent.
If Space is innocent then Pela is guilty and vice versa. So I think the two alternative pairings are:
Space/Romice Pelassarias/Catilina
If I am correct then at present the tie is on one hero and one spy but I haven't a clue which is which.
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1020
0
Nov 26, 2017 12:37:49 GMT
21,771
fylimar
5,452
Aug 16, 2016 18:31:34 GMT
August 2016
fylimar
Mass Effect Trilogy, Dragon Age: Origins, Dragon Age 2, Dragon Age Inquisition, KOTOR, Baldur's Gate, Neverwinter Nights, Jade Empire
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Post by fylimar on Apr 9, 2018 19:09:20 GMT
I'm not sure either. I agree, that reed is probably innocent, but the others could all be spies. I hope, you will make the right decision. Both pelas and spaces argumentation make sense, but both had sweettalked their way out of trouble as spies before, so I would take both statements with a grain of salt. My gut tells me to put pela and space in different camps too.
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