The Occupation of Treviso isn’t What We Think

Well sure there was no army for them to fight back when they moved in, and Antiva has historically locked is mages in the circles (and i would assume they don't have a positive attitude toward rebel mages) so unlike Tevinter there isn't the excuse of bas saarebas roaming the streets to "justify" brutal tactics.

Without an army to come and eject them they might as well try for the gentler way they deal with Kont-aar and Vindaar in Rivain. There's potential to convert more people (if only cause they're not dead) and it might discourage reprisal by other countries leaders (though not the chantry's eventual Exalted march, Solas will likely delay that however).

I also think that surrounding Arlathan is why they broke the Llomeryn accords before taking full control of Tevinter. If not that then there must be something else to justify the risk.

They want to convert the whole continent so i think they do want to take the rest of Antiva, but possibly not anytime in the near future.

I think there is something to this theory. It has always struck me as crazy for them to break the Llomerryn Accord if they were simply trying to conquer Thedas. Much better to focus on Tevinter, which has always been a problem because of their weakness against magic and trust to the fact that the other nations will not intervene. There were also other things in Three Trees to Midnight that seemed odd if defeating Tevinter was the main aim:

1) They moved prisoners eastwards from Qarinus/Ventus to work on cutting down Arlathan Forest. What would be the point? Unless, they were concerned about what was within the forest.

2) The Ben'Hassrath aren't totally uninvolved with the Antaam. The Huntsman was sent there to check up on what Bas-Taar was doing with the prisoners but also perhaps to be ready to act in other ways. He was content to follow the escapees far enough into the forest to establish what sort of defenses were being employed and then let them go. Presumably he thought it more important to stay alive to report his findings and also to give the impression that they weren't actually interested in the forest itself.

3) The interest of the "Dalish" clan in the activities of the Qun. Almost like they suspected that invading Tevinter wasn't the primary aim. They discovered that the Antaam were planning on invading Antiva next. This was reported back to the "clans" gathering in the forest. I would also suggest at this point that it is entirely possible they were allowed to discover the plans and this is why the Ben'Hassrath agent allowed them to escape.

4) The Antaam pushed on down the eastern seaboard of Tevinter, from where Rasaan, a senior member of the priesthood, pushed on down into the Silent Plains seeking information specifically about Solas. We know that many Tevinter cities were built over elven ruins and they also plundered elven artifacts, so the assault on Tevinter could be connected with this as well as their concern over the ongoing threat of the Venatori and red lyrium.   Rasaan said she was there with "her Antaam", so either she is behind the rift with Par Vollen or that is an indication they in fact do have their backing.   

5) An agent of Fen'Harel deliberately tried to escalate the war by ensuring that Par Vollen could no longer maintain alleged neutrality in the conflict. She also specifically attacked their mobile magical research facility in order to put that out of action. Solas ensured a similar outcome when he involved the Inquisition against the previous research facility on land. Clearly, it would seem that he considers them a threat. It may be relevant that the Viddasala's research was specifically into ways of strengthening the Veil.

6) Charter says that Ben'Hassrath know more than anyone else about Solas' movements. Well, they have been watching him longer than everyone else. They would definitely know if the "clans" gathering in the Arlathan Forest are connected with him. Alternatively, if they are connected with the another mysterious group, the Executors. The latter seem opposed to the Dread Wolf and implied that the Qunari might be afraid of them. Solas says they are dangerous and I think the Qun do know who this group are. If Strife's "Dalish" are not connection with Solas, then they may well be connected with the Executors and their activities could be another threat.   Note that Strife seemed to have a reverence for Andruil and knew that apparently this forest was her domain.   Also, that some people have identified the left hand figure in the mural as possibly Andruil.

So, the idea that the Qun's main focus is on dealing with the threat to be found in the Arlathan Forest seems reasonable. It will be interesting to see how the southern Divine responds to the assault on Antiva. If the Qun do only stay in the northern part, encircling the forest, and the Divine takes no action, it could be it is because she has been made aware of exactly why they are doing this and, thus, they have her blessing in the fight against Solas. Of course, whether or not the Qun go home after the threat has been removed is another matter.

The Rivaini were only ever devout Andrastrians in the capital of Dairsmuid and surrounding area. In the rural areas they mostly still follow their own religion, which is pantheistic and closely connected with the Seers. Strangely enough, even the Qun found it easier to tolerate that than categorically oppose it when they were in control. After what the Templars did to the Dairsmuid Circle, it is likely the Chantry lost even more ground in the region.

I've always been curious to know what happened in the 4th Blight. The darkspawn pretty much overran all of Antiva early on, before heading south and sweeping virtually unopposed through the Freemarches, so what happened in the other direction going north? Why weren't the darkspawn interested in going that way, or if they did, what stopped them from destroying Rivain? I wonder if the Seers are more powerful than the Chantry would like to admit.   I'm still hopeful for a Rivaini Seer as a companion.

I think this is only a vague possibility. As you have pointed out on another thread, it would take time for the Divine to organise an Exalted March, so I wouldn't write her off just yet. It is also possible that the Divine would wait for an official confirmation that the Antivan royalty/Crows want her to intervene. So, initially she may just mobilise her forces across the Freemarches and then get them to hold the line on the Antivan border, whilst awaiting reports as to how the local defence is holding up. We shouldn't forget the Felicisima Armada either. They are based on Llomerryn and were pivotal in turning the tide against the Qunari last time. The pirates are a pretty independent bunch so may well act unilaterally without waiting for an official request from either the Divine or the Crows but they would certainly ensure the the Qunari didn't get it all their own way on the ocean. Since Treviso is a coastal city, they could help in defeating the Qun there too.

Here’s a thought, maybe the Qunari are holding the people of Treviso hostage.

That is to say, they’ll kill or forcibly convert the population unless they’re allowed to execute whatever their operation is unmolested by Chantry forces.

This is one of those aspects of their codices where I don't think the writers fully think things through. The darkspawn seem to destroy everything in their path and corrupt the land itself if they stay for any length of time. Lothering was apparently still an infertile wasteland 10 years after the Blight ended and they were there for a maximum of 1 year. If the darkspawn overran Rivain at the beginning of the 4th Blight, they were there for 10 years, so the corruption would have lasted much longer. Also, what happened to the people? Did they manage to flee across the strait to Par Vollen (not yet occupied by the Qunari) in sufficient numbers they could re-populate Rivain when the time was right? Still, it would explain how the Qun so easily conquered Rivain and Antiva back in the Steel Age as this was only a hundred years or so after the end of the Blight, so the population of both nations would still not have recovered to pre-Blight levels.

Yeah I don’t think they had how impactful the Blight is when they made that. After all Antiva is known to be super fertile and yet like you said it was Blighted for over a decade. As for the Rivaini people, I imagine they probably sailed south to the Free Marches like most Antivans went to. Though I guess it depends where in Antiva the Blight started. If near the northwest for example they would have had time to run through eastern Antiva on their way down south. If they went to Par Vollen before the Qunari, you’d think they would have developed settlements worth mention in history.

So much for not wanting to be alive when it happens. In hindsight best to leave him locked in that cage. Unless the Antaam rebelled against him or they fractured.

I agree. I don't think the Crows really care about the ordinary people. It is all really about their own power base. Unlike the turncoat, they would realise the Qun would never tolerate them in their regime, so were just using him in the short term and would discard/re-educate him when the time was right. By contrast, the Qun do want to spread their philosophy, not just conquer land.

I think the Divine would be rather foolish to believe this. However, she might be hopeful that if the Qun were going up against the Dread Wolf, it might result in mutual destruction.

He said that because he respected the Hero and didn't want to be on the opposing side in any future conflict. He also still respected Alistair in the comic series. However, since then the situation has changed. The Viddasala said that is was the fall of the southern Circles and the rise of Corypheus and the Venatori that moved them to action. It seem to be a case of magic running out of control and they saw the need to deal with it. It is why they approached the Inquisition with their proposal for co-operation to this end. They also made it clear they were anxious about red lyrium, in particular that it might be taken to Tevinter and become more widespread in its use. To cap it all, they discovered the mild mannered apostate working with the Inquisition was really a major threat to Thedas. So, with all these additional factors having come into play, Sten would put aside his personal feelings and do what he thought was best for his own people and Thedas as a whole. That is assuming the Antaam didn't rebel against his leadership. However, that seems highly unlikely to me as he would have just sent in Ben'Hassrath agents to take out the leaders of the mutiny. It may be that he felt the other two members of the Triumverate were too slow to act, being more concerned about maintaining good relations with the south than the various threats he had identified, so he went ahead without them. Actually, the Arishok does have a certain degree of autonomy in this as the defense of the Qun is his responsibility, so technically he doesn't have to seek their permission if he has identified imminent danger that needs dealing with.

This does further make me wonder about the connection between the Ben-Hasrath and the Antaam with regards to the war. Afterall some of Bio's marketing has indicated that one of the explored themes of this game is that that power brokers of Thedas is going to be too preoccupied with their own petty problems to focus on the real threats. Of course I suppose the Qunari could be one of the 'real threats' people are ignoring...and all the nasty implications that come with that...or it could mean that the Qunari are some sort of control group, after all good writing has it where the various factions in a game has to be fighting over the same thing. But the Qunari working with one another to fight Solas still doesen't fit the pattern and assuming that they are nudging and winking at the Divine and that is why she isn't getting involved (assuming she isn't getting involved) then we still have a lot of power brokers that actually are looking into this.

Of course this could all be a lot more occum's razor then we realize and the Qunari are divided and the Divine really is going to be starting an Exalted march to eject them from Antiva.

Maybe he leaked the Antivans had something of his? Or a more benign 'they are going to attack you' sort of a way?

We should also remember that the Qun has many elven converts but not all of them may be genuine. In Trespasser he says that his agents stumbled over Qunari agents, who were all passing themselves off as loyal to the Inquisition, so there is a precedent for this. We also know from Tevinter Nights that his agents have been active for years among the slaves of Tevinter and the epilogue to Trespasser made it clear that he had a sizable following among the southern servant class, so there is plenty of scope for him to cause mayhem without people even connecting it with him.

I’ve been wondering if that magic castle is actually an Antivan Circle of Magi, who have cut themselves off to protect themselves from the Qunari. The only one we know of is in Antiva City, but the devs would have decided to have a second in Treviso.

That could be a way to involve the southern mages in this.

I hope the city we’ve seen in the concept art and trailers is Treviso and not Antiva City.