1.08, 1.09, 1.10 Premium / Arsenal / Reserves Pack research
Jun 9, 2017 16:35:08 GMT
SalMasRac, crashsuit, and 8 more like this
Post by JRandall0308 on Jun 9, 2017 16:35:08 GMT
This thread is for research into Premium / Arsenal / Reserves Packs as of patches 1.08 and 1.09 and 1.10 and probably forever.
keywords: streakbreaker, streak breaker, pity timer, pity RNG, drop rate, droprate, ultrarare, ultra-rare, ultra rare
consolidated research findings
* Premium pack UR per-pack drop rate appears to be around 25%. crashsuit: "Total drop rate for 509 URs over 2044 Premium packs: ~24.9%.". This is close most people's observed drop rates in smaller samples.
* DoctorDAM used Monte Carlo simulations to derive a per-slot drop rate between 11% and 12%. [see later post]
* Bioware has stated (19 May 2017) that a "streakbreaker" (what we call a "pity timer" or "pity RNG") was created for Premium Packs in response to player feedback during the closed alpha testing. This means that if you have purchased 9 Premium Packs in a row without an Ultra-Rare (UR), your 10th Premium Pack *will* contain a UR.
* Bioware has also stated (15 June 2017) that similar pity timers exist for Arsenal and Reserves Packs.
* TODO: listen to the old Twitch streams and get the exact quotes
* Each pity timer is separate. When you mix P/A/R packs each one maintains its own distinct pity timer.
* We believe that purchasing other packs or doing other stuff in between P/A/R packs (up to and including game patches and console updates) will NOT disrupt the pity timer, but this is hard and time consuming to test.
* Lots of other things to test, see 'hypotheses' section below.
* Patchpocalypse (1.09) brought a lot more loot to accumulate at all rarities, but seems to have had no effect on pity timers.
* Expert pack UR drop rate appears to be a little over 11% (per research from crashsuit). At this rate (or even better at 12.5% or more , or half of the 25% drop rate in Premiums), "Experts will once again be a better value than the more expensive packs, since you'd get around the same URs for the money, but more gold cards and more boosters. The one exception would be if you're spending real money for Andromeda Points and are just after UR cards. In that case you'd get more for your money buying 100k packs."
raw data from...
LennyBusker
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bwtf1cRoBwvq79_BBi6xCfzfsNbq52PQ9Iw57gIcl9o/edit#gid=0
RtrnofdMax
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10tTu2Q5BVVlluswLCaEwF8PRcUI32CZmJ-Vq3zKkKXk/edit
Kazu
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VjuIdDcxkaY0V4CvmLMH4aQC9NdZr529ObDzhnJqJwo/view#gid=0
JRandall0308
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lmof5dVoHD4W-j3_A6FmujLiiwLDHX66qCHA3BCuFrk/edit?usp=sharing
crashsuit
(lots of videos and data posted later in the thread)
playlist on YouTube:
www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL1_BoZ80rxMMBTvXvWliFMiYUG8IOQBs5
proposed data format
how to capture data
PC: download one of 73 zillion different possible recording softwares; or your graphics card came with one, probably
XB1: press Xbox button, press menu button to go into Xbox dvr, X button to 'start recording' - when finished repeat steps
PS4: no idea
how to upload videos on all platforms
PC: YouTube is your best get
XB1: it will upload to XBL automagically unless you have strict privacy settings; from there, you can use xboxclips.com or similar to get a URL
PS4: no idea
hypotheses and test results
see spoiler block and yes, technically even the stuff we 'know' is wrong needs to be officially disproved
P/A/R = Premium / Arsenal / Reserves
Hypotheses:
Pity RNG Strong Claim (need to be tested per type of pack, and mixed) -- disproved, detailed examples pending
When you buy 10 (P/A/R) in a row, the 10th pack will contain a UR regardless of what the previous 9 packs contained.
Pity RNG Weak Claim -- confirmed by Bioware
When you buy 10 (P/A/R) in a row, the 10th pack will contain a UR if and only if the previous 9 packs contained 0 URs.
Other Stuff
Buying a single Supply / Jumbo / Basic / Advanced / Expert pack anywhere in the row of 100,000-credit packs will have no effect on the pity RNG.
Buying up to N Supply / Jumbo(*) / Basic / Advanced / Expert pack anywhere in the row of 100,000-credit packs will have no effect on the pity RNG. Test for N = 9, N = 10, N = 11 to start with.
(*) Jumbo is particularly interesting in this context - does it count as 1 pack, or 5? (assuming N number of non-P/A/R packs actually breaks the pity RNG).
Stuff that we are pretty sure is untrue but needs documented proof:
* Exiting the store and doing something else in the same game session will break the pity RNG. <-- easier to disprove when worded this way
* Exiting MP, then re-entering, will break pity RNG. <-- easier to disprove when worded this way
* Exiting MP, force-quitting the application, then re-entering, will break pity RNG. <-- easier to disprove when worded this way
* Exiting MP, force-quitting, and restarting your platform, will break pity RNG. <-- easier to disprove when worded this way
* Operating system updates (PC) or console updates (XB1, PS4) will break pity RNG. <-- easier to disprove when worded this way
* MEA patches will break pity RNG. (Expected to be disproved for general patches, but possibly confirmed for patches that specifically* state they changed drop rates nor introduced new packs, such as patch 1.08 itself). <-- easier to disprove when worded this way
= = =
Forgot to mention: please indicate the status of your manifest before each pack-buying test.
Prestige / Collections / Characters
and
Prestige / Collections / Weapons
and
Prestige / Collections / Mods
This is so we know if you had remaining Rares and URs to obtain in each category.
Easiest way is probably a screenshot in-game or in-app. Note that both in-game and in-app you can sort by rarity.
keywords: streakbreaker, streak breaker, pity timer, pity RNG, drop rate, droprate, ultrarare, ultra-rare, ultra rare
consolidated research findings
* Premium pack UR per-pack drop rate appears to be around 25%. crashsuit: "Total drop rate for 509 URs over 2044 Premium packs: ~24.9%.". This is close most people's observed drop rates in smaller samples.
* DoctorDAM used Monte Carlo simulations to derive a per-slot drop rate between 11% and 12%. [see later post]
* Bioware has stated (19 May 2017) that a "streakbreaker" (what we call a "pity timer" or "pity RNG") was created for Premium Packs in response to player feedback during the closed alpha testing. This means that if you have purchased 9 Premium Packs in a row without an Ultra-Rare (UR), your 10th Premium Pack *will* contain a UR.
* Bioware has also stated (15 June 2017) that similar pity timers exist for Arsenal and Reserves Packs.
* TODO: listen to the old Twitch streams and get the exact quotes
* Each pity timer is separate. When you mix P/A/R packs each one maintains its own distinct pity timer.
* We believe that purchasing other packs or doing other stuff in between P/A/R packs (up to and including game patches and console updates) will NOT disrupt the pity timer, but this is hard and time consuming to test.
* Lots of other things to test, see 'hypotheses' section below.
* Patchpocalypse (1.09) brought a lot more loot to accumulate at all rarities, but seems to have had no effect on pity timers.
* Expert pack UR drop rate appears to be a little over 11% (per research from crashsuit). At this rate (or even better at 12.5% or more , or half of the 25% drop rate in Premiums), "Experts will once again be a better value than the more expensive packs, since you'd get around the same URs for the money, but more gold cards and more boosters. The one exception would be if you're spending real money for Andromeda Points and are just after UR cards. In that case you'd get more for your money buying 100k packs."
raw data from...
LennyBusker
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bwtf1cRoBwvq79_BBi6xCfzfsNbq52PQ9Iw57gIcl9o/edit#gid=0
RtrnofdMax
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10tTu2Q5BVVlluswLCaEwF8PRcUI32CZmJ-Vq3zKkKXk/edit
Kazu
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VjuIdDcxkaY0V4CvmLMH4aQC9NdZr529ObDzhnJqJwo/view#gid=0
JRandall0308
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lmof5dVoHD4W-j3_A6FmujLiiwLDHX66qCHA3BCuFrk/edit?usp=sharing
crashsuit
(lots of videos and data posted later in the thread)
playlist on YouTube:
www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL1_BoZ80rxMMBTvXvWliFMiYUG8IOQBs5
proposed data format
- TODO
how to capture data
PC: download one of 73 zillion different possible recording softwares; or your graphics card came with one, probably
XB1: press Xbox button, press menu button to go into Xbox dvr, X button to 'start recording' - when finished repeat steps
PS4: no idea
how to upload videos on all platforms
PC: YouTube is your best get
XB1: it will upload to XBL automagically unless you have strict privacy settings; from there, you can use xboxclips.com or similar to get a URL
PS4: no idea
hypotheses and test results
see spoiler block and yes, technically even the stuff we 'know' is wrong needs to be officially disproved
P/A/R = Premium / Arsenal / Reserves
Hypotheses:
Pity RNG Strong Claim (need to be tested per type of pack, and mixed) -- disproved, detailed examples pending
Pity RNG Weak Claim -- confirmed by Bioware
When you buy 10 (P/A/R) in a row, the 10th pack will contain a UR if and only if the previous 9 packs contained 0 URs.
Other Stuff
Buying a single Supply / Jumbo / Basic / Advanced / Expert pack anywhere in the row of 100,000-credit packs will have no effect on the pity RNG.
Buying up to N Supply / Jumbo(*) / Basic / Advanced / Expert pack anywhere in the row of 100,000-credit packs will have no effect on the pity RNG. Test for N = 9, N = 10, N = 11 to start with.
(*) Jumbo is particularly interesting in this context - does it count as 1 pack, or 5? (assuming N number of non-P/A/R packs actually breaks the pity RNG).
Stuff that we are pretty sure is untrue but needs documented proof:
* Exiting the store and doing something else in the same game session will break the pity RNG. <-- easier to disprove when worded this way
* Exiting MP, then re-entering, will break pity RNG. <-- easier to disprove when worded this way
* Exiting MP, force-quitting the application, then re-entering, will break pity RNG. <-- easier to disprove when worded this way
* Exiting MP, force-quitting, and restarting your platform, will break pity RNG. <-- easier to disprove when worded this way
* Operating system updates (PC) or console updates (XB1, PS4) will break pity RNG. <-- easier to disprove when worded this way
* MEA patches will break pity RNG. (Expected to be disproved for general patches, but possibly confirmed for patches that specifically* state they changed drop rates nor introduced new packs, such as patch 1.08 itself). <-- easier to disprove when worded this way
= = =
Forgot to mention: please indicate the status of your manifest before each pack-buying test.
Prestige / Collections / Characters
and
Prestige / Collections / Weapons
and
Prestige / Collections / Mods
This is so we know if you had remaining Rares and URs to obtain in each category.
Easiest way is probably a screenshot in-game or in-app. Note that both in-game and in-app you can sort by rarity.
