1.08, 1.09, 1.10 Premium / Arsenal / Reserves Pack research

I don't have ANY UR card at X. So I'll keep an eye on this.

I`ve been opeining expert pack only since patch 1.09(except first saved one million). My last half million got me three URs so I don`t feel bad with it.

Unless Bioware reveals the actual math we don't know what matters, which is why we have to reverse-engineer it ourselves.

For Science! and OCD of course.

Not sure if anyone's interested in studying lesser packs, but I recorded myself purchasing Basic and Advanced packs to max the new commons and uncommons, and also to see how often doubles and/or upgraded card drops happen. I started with a max 1.08 manifest, then bought Basic packs to max commons, then bought Advanced packs to max uncommons. Unfortunately I goofed up on recording the Basic packs so I missed getting the majority of those on video. I opened a few dozen extra Basic packs to get more info recorded on upgraded rarity drop rates. After a little bit I stopped flipping over the cards most of the time, it's just too much work, but the rarities are still visible. If anyone wants, feel free to parse out the videos to get upgraded card drop rates for the cheap packs and see whether there's a pity timer for that kind of thing. Still to do and record: open 13000 Jumbo packs to see what happens when gels/ops/thermals/cobras reach 65535 each. My personal theory is that packs will start dropping 5 boosters every time, but who knows.

Basic packs:



Advanced packs:

Thanks crashsuit. I don't know when I will have time to go through this, but I appreciate the raw data.

how?

welp, crashsuit, next milestone is 2,147,483,647

Uncommon drop rate in Basic packs appears to be around 12% (me) to 14% (crashsuit). N = 199 packs, 26 Uncommons.

I already maxed my Commons (Characters ranks XI-XX) but because I like you guys I will buy another 100 Basic packs to get some more data.

I guess? Kinda pointless without screenshots like that lucky bastard on reddit who got 4! URs in his Apex Elite Pack.

The problem is going to be that only the people with 2+ URs are going to post their screenshots so we will get an inflated sense of how often that happens. And we'd need hundreds of packs to get a sense for true drop rates, which I don't see ever happening.

1000 Premium packs, 258 URs, 25.8% UR drop rate. Very tired/drunk and going to bed now but will upload videos tomorrow and link in thread. Also in another couple days or so will post stats for another 1000 or so Premium packs, either until credits run out or manifest is maxed, whichever happens first. In total should provide a significant enough of a sample to establish a very accurate UR drop rate for Premium packs.

crashsuit

I shoulda followed up. I have been getting rare weapons consistently from my reserve packs now.