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Post by Kenny Bania on Apr 30, 2017 5:46:01 GMT
That's the video this thread is about. Interesting...
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Post by crashsuit on Apr 30, 2017 5:54:34 GMT
That's the video this thread is about. Interesting... I am not a smart man.
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Post by ddrguy300 on Apr 30, 2017 6:29:14 GMT
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Post by thespookyace on Apr 30, 2017 6:55:31 GMT
I spent two weekends opening total of 170 premium packs. I am sorry to say I couldn't find any definitive pattern.
First weekend I opened 85 premium packs, and my first UR dropped at fucking pack 23(you can imagine how depressing I was at the time). The drops started picking up later, but first 45 packs I only had 5 UR dropped. Then next 40 packs I had 11 UR dropped, which was really good.
Last weekend I opened another 85 premium packs. Prior to opening those packs I opened 7 expert packs with no UR drops. First 45 packs I had fucking 15 UR drops, and next 40 packs I also had a whopping 12 UR drops.
It seems that premium packs also have a compensation factor but I am not sure how it works. Sorry I couldn't remember detailed drops.
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Post by killabkilledb on Apr 30, 2017 7:34:05 GMT
Thanks for the data....
I've gotten 4 URs out of three consecutive premium packs a few times in my spending sprees......usually after a dry spell....
When I go 5 or 6 premiums without a UR I often switch to expert and often enough, get a UR....
But this is cool because if I am pretty much going to get one every 500K, when new dlc drops I'll just buy expert packs.....sitting on 3.1million credits and a maxed manifest right now....I want to pocket at least 10 million for dlc drops...
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Post by spacev3gan on Apr 30, 2017 7:40:06 GMT
So the game grants a guaranteed UR every 10 Expert Packs, is that correct? If you fail to get a UR during 9 consecutive Expert Packs, the game will surely yield a UR on the 10th pack. Is that right?
If so, there is a guaranteed UR per 500,000 credits when shopping this way. I have been buying Premium Packs and though I don't keep track of my purchases I believe my UR droprate is less favorable than that, not to mention that consumables are also scarcer when buying one 100k Pack rather than two 50k pack.
I have had some disagreement with Drasca in the past, but I sincerely commend him for undertaking the arduous task of saving up that many credits and possibly discovering critical RNG patterns that may help some players in this game, including yours truly.
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Post by Kazu on Apr 30, 2017 9:51:10 GMT
That's the video this thread is about. Interesting... I am not a smart man. Want a job at Bioware?
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Post by manalishi on Apr 30, 2017 14:18:45 GMT
I can confirm a drop rate of 1 UR per 10 on expert packs: 51 packs and got 5 URs. On premium packs, though, three separate times, I got drops rates 4.6 out of 10 (23 packs, 5 URs) and an even 4 out of 10 on the other two (8 packs each time, 2 UR's each time). Maybe it was just luck, but three times getting better than twice the rate of expert packs, I thought that was pretty amazing. Working my way up to another 800K in credits to try another 8 premium packs to see if the streak holds (have 559K right now). By tomorrow I'll be able to test. Okay, continuing along...This morning after a few games I had enough to buy another 8 premium packs. I could have played one more game to be able to buy 9, and I was going to do that just to give that extra edge if the 4.6ish ratio was more normal, but I was impatient. Bought 8 premiums and finally got one UR on the last pack. I went and played another game and bought another premium pack. Got a UR out of it! So, for me anyway, the streak I had going continued: 2 UR's out of 9 premium packs, translating to 4.5 out of 10. Not bad, and twice as many as buying expert packs. Next, though, I'm going to shoot for 11 experts to see if I get only one UR from them and confirm all this. I'll report back...
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Post by mtcody on Apr 30, 2017 15:02:35 GMT
I had saved up 10 millions and spent them all on Premium Packs (100 packs). Got 24 UR cards and 33 UR consumables.
I can confirm that PP uses the same system.
Here's my pack pattern:
3 = Duelist IX 4 = Eagle V 5 = UR consumable
9 = UR consumable 10 = Inferno I 11 = Crusader VII 12 = Crusader VIII 13 = UR consumable 14 = Valiant V + UR consumable
21 = UR consumable
24 = Avenger V
26 = UR consumable 27 = PAW III
29 = UR consumable
31 = UR consumable
32 = Inferno II 33 = Valkyrie IV + UR consumable
36 = UR consumable 37 = UR consumable 38 = Gladiator V 39 = UR consumable
48 = Naladen VII
50 = PAW III
52 = Eagle IV
54 = Naladen VIII
57 = Ushior IV
59 = Operator + UR consumable
63 = UR consumable 64 = UR consumable
67 = UR consumable 68 = Eagle V
73 = Soned III + UR consumable
78 = UR consumable 79 = Naladen IX 80 = UR consumable 81 = UR consumable 82 = UR consumable 83 = UR consumable 84 = UR consumable 85 = UR consumable
88 = UR consumable 89 = Gladiator IV 90 = UR consumable 91 = Valiant VI + Crusader IX + UR consumable
93 = UR consumable 94 = UR consumable 95 = Dhan VIII
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Post by biggydx on Apr 30, 2017 15:38:11 GMT
With this information, I'm kinda curious if Premium and Expert packs share the same counter. Not as in 1 UR for every 10, but if you get nothing from 9 expert packs, will you get a UR if you buy a premium pack afterwards?
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Post by mrfuddyduddy on Apr 30, 2017 16:23:48 GMT
If Premium Packs are only a 1 in 10 just like Expert packs than anyone who has been buying Premium Packs has just been flushing 50K down the toilet every purchase. Glad I've only bought like 2 premium packs ever so far, almost have all my uncommons maxed so I guess when they unf*** this game and I can start playing again I know what packs to buy.
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Post by manalishi on Apr 30, 2017 16:41:14 GMT
If Premium Packs are only a 1 in 10 just like Expert packs than anyone who has been buying Premium Packs has just been flushing 50K down the toilet every purchase. Glad I've only bought like 2 premium packs ever so far, almost have all my uncommons maxed so I guess when they unf*** this game and I can start playing again I know what packs to buy. My experience is that premium packs give more URs (weapons/characters) by a factor of better than 2 to 1 over expert packs. To me, until the manifest is maxed, expert packs are the waste of credits. If someone buys Andromeda points, clearly Premium packs are what you want, because they are only 50% more than Experts.
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Post by ddrguy300 on Apr 30, 2017 17:59:02 GMT
I had saved up 10 millions and spent them all on Premium Packs (100 packs). Got 24 UR cards. I can confirm that PP uses the same system. Here's my pack pattern: 3 = Duelist IX
4 = Eagle V
10 = Inferno I
11 = Crusader VII
12 = Crusader VIII
14 = Valiant V
24 = (Angara) Avenger V
27 = PAW III
32 = Inferno II
33 = Valkyrie IV
38 = Gladiator V
48 = Naladen VII
50 = PAW III
52 = Eagle IV
54 = Naladen VIII
57 = Ushior IV
59 = Operator
68 = Eagle V
73 = Soned III
79 = Naladen IX
89 = Gladiator IV
91 = Valiant VI + Crusader IX
95 = Dhan VIII
Cleaned up. Based on this data and a few others reported here so far it would appear that the premium packs follow the same rule as the expert packs, except in these, there are two drop chances: one at 10% and the other at 15% (I believe). This 10 million got an average of 1.2 per 500k spent, which is actually about on par with expert pack drop rates - the 1:10 plus the luck factor yielding about 11 to 12 ish percent. So it seems like premium packs are the gamblers pack. You can get either extremely lucky or spend a million credits getting one ultra. That's my feeling on it anyway.
Will continue to reevaluate as more data comes in. Personally I'm sticking with experts (not that it matters since I'm saving) until more data comes in suggesting that maybe drop rates have changed for the better for premiums because I've historically been consistently fucked over. And even then, if the average seems that premiums are about double the drop rate, I'm still temped to just buy experts to get a) more consumables, but more importantly to be as far away from RNGsus as possible when there's not really a sound reason to go premium when you're just subjecting yourself to more rng if it's following the same 10 pack rule.
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*tips hat, removes pants*
Games: Mass Effect Trilogy
XBL Gamertag: only1biggs
Prime Posts: 1
Prime Likes: 999,999
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Post by only1biggs on Apr 30, 2017 19:17:02 GMT
So I play with Drasca and a handful of other people at times. He was saving up 15 million to dump into 300 expert packs. He got to it last night and did a live twitch opening with myself and Xen13 hanging out in discord. Here's the raw footage: There's a reason it's so long. There's a couple of gold matches at the end to test the theory a final time. The Pattern: It would appear to be that UR cards have a flat 10% chance to drop in every expert pack, but there seems to be a protocol where the game checks those drops and if you've gone 9 packs without an ultra rare, the 10th pack Will contain a UR card guaranteed. However, if you get an ultra rare from the 10% RNGsus, the system resets. So you aren't promised one UR every 10 packs plus whatever in between. But you do get at Least one every 10 packs. We didn't notice this until about half way in and I didn't feel quite like going back through and documenting at what pack exactly a UR dropped, so anyone who wants to help us double check the numbers, feel free. But it felt like it was about the same in the beginning, we just didn't notice until later. But this was a pattern that was called too many times to be coincidence. He ended up calling like over 10 ur drops at instances of the 10th pack out of a total drop of 33/34. He was 100k away from another "10th" pack, so we farmed two more gold games to test it again and also to test if it is dependent on consecutive pack openings through saving or if it works the same way if you buy one pack a gold game. After I dropped the second game (thank you servers), I went ahead and bought some packs with money I saved to test the pattern myself. Got a UR on the 5th pack, kept buying to try to get one on the 10th, got a second on the 10th. So it worked for me too. After the second game, he bought his final pack. Boom, UR card on the 10th pack since the last UR. I'm posting this to hopefully help ease some troubled minds out there and to have the community test it out for themselves too and maybe post here about when/if it works for them as well. Assuming this pattern is programmed into the other packs the same way, someone somewhere should be able to test this type of drop ratio in basic and advanced packs too in regards to getting uncommon and rare cards respectively. As for premium packs, we aren't sure. But again, assuming the same kind of pattern for UR card slots, it might be the same: That each chance space won't go more than 10 pack openings without coughing one up. And that the UR space with the "higher chance" rate that's probably set around 15 percent either follows the same 10 pack threshold but at a higher percentage chance to drop each time, or it's upped to like no more than 6/7 packs before that one yields a UR to better reflect the higher drop chance. Further testing is needed, though because this pack has two UR chance slots, it might not be easy/possible to narrow what I just suggested as possible because you don't know which one is dropping when. Either way, many credits needed to figure it out. Assuming this Expert pack/UR card chance/higher tier card chance pattern is true, and both Drasca and I believe it is, and I think others should be able to see it both for themselves and in the video... Then this is something that Bioware actually did right and I can actually applaud them for putting this in the RNG system. Maybe they do care. Maybe they do. By that same token, to any devs this may come across: Don't change this. I'm hoping that sharing this in mass with the community helps everyone out at a whole and that the risk of them taking this out completely and just giving us all flat rate BS is not a risk at all. This is one thing you did right (or at least not wrong) in a huge pool of things you did wrong. Please don't screw it up by taking it out because of greed. Because of anything, really. This is one action that you've taken that actually lends itself to interpreting your behavior to your fans/customers as positive. And 1/10 can at least lend itself to a thin lined argument of livable. UR drop and dev action/inaction wise. TL:DR-Expert packs have a flat 10% chance to drop a UR, but also if you haven't gotten a UR by the following 9th pack after your last, the game will give you a UR in pack 10. -Appears to not need to be consecutive purchases/saved and that the game just remembers the last pack. Further testing/community feedback needed for this assertion. -Testing could be done to see if same drop rate occurs in basic and advanced pack with higher tier card drop chance. If not, this pattern may only exist after maxing rares. Both tests need input from not maxed manifests. -Premium pack pattern currently unknown. Also likely more difficult to find as definitive of a pattern due to two UR card chances in one pack. Future testing/saving needed. -Bioware: Don't fuck this up by changing this if you happen across it. This is a giant help to the fans/players and to yourself. Taking it away would be developer suicide for so many reasons. You don't understand RANDOM.
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Post by neightrix on Apr 30, 2017 19:33:47 GMT
This makes sense from a progression standpoint too. You wouldn't want it to be pure RNG, then you'd have players unlocking things at significantly different speeds. Still way too many UR's at launch, already more grind than ME3 with all DLC.
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Post by ddrguy300 on Apr 30, 2017 19:51:33 GMT
You don't understand RANDOM. Thanks for the useful input. Related: You don't understand patterns.
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Post by SalMasRac on Apr 30, 2017 20:09:37 GMT
Called this one, 10th Expert Pack contained a UR: Of note is that the UR weapon was in addition to a Rank IV Booster, so hopefully this could mean that a Rank IV Booster would not be the guaranteed UR, lol. I also tried buying 5 Supply Packs first to see if that would guarantee me a UR after only 5 Expert Packs, but they didn't count.
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Post by SalMasRac on Apr 30, 2017 20:15:25 GMT
You don't understand RANDOM. The idea is that there is a 10% chance per Expert Pack for a UR, but there is also a 10 pack invisible counter. Every time you buy an Expert Pack and don't get a UR, this counter goes up by 1. If it gets to 10 without a UR, that 10th Pack is a guaranteed UR. It's a way of manually enforcing/ensuring that 10% rate.
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Post by lennybusker on Apr 30, 2017 20:16:10 GMT
Small sample, I know, but add it to the pile. I waited until I got a UR from an Expert pack, then opened 10 over the course of a couple days, with no other packs opened in between.
Last Expert Pack with UR UR - Salarian Operator II
Pack 1 Rare - Lanat X
Pack 2 Rare - Equalizer IX
Pack 3 Rare - Equalizer X
Pack 4 Rare - AR Barrel VII
Pack 5 Rare - AR Barrel VIII
Pack 6 Rare - Shotgun Barrel VIII
Pack 7 Rare - Shotgun Barrel IX
Pack 8 Rare - SR Barrel X
Pack 9 Rare - AR Barrel IX Rare - Shotgun Barrel X
Pack 10 Rare - AR Barrel X UR - Hurricane II
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Post by rolenka on Apr 30, 2017 20:30:07 GMT
Very nice. Rare to see something consumer-friendly these days.
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*tips hat, removes pants*
Games: Mass Effect Trilogy
XBL Gamertag: only1biggs
Prime Posts: 1
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Post by only1biggs on Apr 30, 2017 20:58:21 GMT
You don't understand RANDOM. Thanks for the useful input. Related: You don't understand patterns. No problem. Related: I do. But what use is this pattern you have discovered among the fields of random?
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Post by Kazu on Apr 30, 2017 21:28:02 GMT
Besides the usual quality posting going on. Good job finding stuff out and trying. Will definetely google an image of a badge or something tomorrow and link it here.
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Post by ddrguy300 on Apr 30, 2017 22:14:52 GMT
Thanks for the useful input. Related: You don't understand patterns. No problem. Related: I do. But what use is this pattern you have discovered among the fields of random? If you don't see the value in this, I envy you. But those who do see the value are elated because they aren't total victims to the rng. I get it, you're asking what the help it is when 90 percent of the rest of it is random? What good is a one or two percent increase in overall pack drops from a 10 percent base? It's a morale booster and can even bring people back into the game that would have/had been lost from a pure rng. If a million expert packs would give a hundred thousand ultra rares to the entire community, fine. But you have to look at each player and predict how they will feel getting an ultra rare at pack 5 or pack 25. This is a significant net good for the community as a whole in a sea of gaming atrocities from this title. The presence of good is a little less diluted now.
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*tips hat, removes pants*
Games: Mass Effect Trilogy
XBL Gamertag: only1biggs
Prime Posts: 1
Prime Likes: 999,999
Posts: 515 Likes: 1,538
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Post by only1biggs on Apr 30, 2017 23:29:37 GMT
No problem. Related: I do. But what use is this pattern you have discovered among the fields of random? If you don't see the value in this, I envy you. But those who do see the value are elated because they aren't total victims to the rng. I get it, you're asking what the help it is when 90 percent of the rest of it is random? What good is a one or two percent increase in overall pack drops from a 10 percent base? It's a morale booster and can even bring people back into the game that would have/had been lost from a pure rng. If a million expert packs would give a hundred thousand ultra rares to the entire community, fine. But you have to look at each player and predict how they will feel getting an ultra rare at pack 5 or pack 25. This is a significant net good for the community as a whole in a sea of gaming atrocities from this title. The presence of good is a little less diluted now. That's... What a sad state of affairs.
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Post by rolenka on May 1, 2017 0:00:23 GMT
Even if you are only guaranteed one UR out of 10 premium packs, the chance for weapon barrels is much higher in them. So I would max your barrels first.
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