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Post by No Snakes Alive on May 1, 2017 0:22:37 GMT
I'm assuming either Ultra Rare consumables that I just happened to miss bc wgaf count then OR you literally have to open all ten packs in a row without playing more games/buying Supply Packs in between or something, bc I've gone more than ten now since my last actual Ultra Rare. I'll have to keep my eyes peeled for Ultra Rare consumables to see if those seem to count, which lol probably do lolol biower pls.
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Post by ddrguy300 on May 1, 2017 4:19:02 GMT
If you don't see the value in this, I envy you. But those who do see the value are elated because they aren't total victims to the rng. I get it, you're asking what the help it is when 90 percent of the rest of it is random? What good is a one or two percent increase in overall pack drops from a 10 percent base? It's a morale booster and can even bring people back into the game that would have/had been lost from a pure rng. If a million expert packs would give a hundred thousand ultra rares to the entire community, fine. But you have to look at each player and predict how they will feel getting an ultra rare at pack 5 or pack 25. This is a significant net good for the community as a whole in a sea of gaming atrocities from this title. The presence of good is a little less diluted now. That's... What a sad state of affairs. I agree.
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Post by Kazu on May 1, 2017 8:44:10 GMT
It's a new day, here is your badge. You earned it.
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Post by christsuperstar on May 1, 2017 9:03:30 GMT
Soo, lemme get this straight: I've been a total idiot for only buying dem Premium packs for dem URs, as Expert packs actually got an RNG cockblock inherently? And PP maybe doesn't?... But hey, at least PPs got fewer consumables...
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Post by dustin1280 on May 1, 2017 14:22:45 GMT
This is great, and a huge boon to the player-base if true. I will keep my eyes posted and get other MEA communities watching for this as well, for hopefully further confirmation. Reddit
GFAQS (don't judge me!!)
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Post by iago on May 1, 2017 15:02:39 GMT
After 143 counted packs I've made the same observation. If you don't get an UR after 9 packs, the 10th gives you a guaranteed one, making the chances >10% (I'm at 11,19% with 16 UR out of 143 packs). Glad I stuck with opening Expert packs, makes them the most efficient choice.
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Post by nucleartech76 on May 1, 2017 15:20:26 GMT
Out of curiousity has anyone tracked a similar pattern in lower packs giving silver or gold weapons?
Does buying equipment packs reset the drop pattern?
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Post by JRandall0308 on May 1, 2017 15:29:20 GMT
Premium Pack data because I am stubborn. 73 packs, 15 URs list Premium Pack Number | Ultra-Rares | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 26 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 28 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 30 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 34 | 1 | 35 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 37 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 39 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 41 | 0 | 42 | 0 | 43 | 0 | 44 | 1 | 45 | 0 | 46 | 0 | 47 | 0 | 48 | 0 | 49 | 0 | 50 | 1 | 51 | 0 | 52 | 0 | 53 | 0 | 54 | 0 | 55 | 0 | 56 | 0 | 57 | 0 | 58 | 0 | 59 | 0 | 60 | 2 | 61 | 0 | 62 | 0 | 63 | 0 | 64 | 1 | 65 | 0 | 66 | 0 | 67 | 0 | 68 | 0 | 69 | 0 | 70 | 0 | 71 | 0 | 72 | 0 | 73 | 0 |
Longest dry spell was 9 (twice) followed by 8 (twice). I am currently sitting on a 9-long dry spell so if the 'pity RNG' also works for Premium Packs then my next one should contain a UR. Right?
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Post by dustin1280 on May 1, 2017 15:40:18 GMT
Technically yes, but if that is the case, then the Expert packs are DEFINITELY superior to the Premium packs
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Post by JRandall0308 on May 1, 2017 15:42:03 GMT
Wouldn't be the first time an in-game store has misled the players about the actual chances.
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Post by dustin1280 on May 1, 2017 15:42:52 GMT
UNLESS you get TWO N7s in the next pack, in that case they would remain fairly comparable.
I would put money on the fact that your next pack will have 2 N7 items on it.
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Post by JRandall0308 on May 1, 2017 15:59:21 GMT
Well the first 9-long dry spell only had 1 UR after it. Why do we think this one will be different?
Edit: 35-43 by pack number
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Post by dustin1280 on May 1, 2017 16:00:47 GMT
I missed that, that means premium packs just suck and actually have WORSE odds (in the long run) then expert packs...
They run on the same pity counter but it takes 2x the amount of credits for them.
Sure you get two chances at it, but if you happen to get ring screwed, the pity counter would have kicked in for expert packs 500,000 credits earlier.
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Transcended One
N4
Games: Mass Effect Trilogy, Dragon Age: Origins, Dragon Age 2, Dragon Age Inquisition, KOTOR, Baldur's Gate, Shattered Steel, Neverwinter Nights, Jade Empire, Mass Effect Andromeda
Origin: TranscendedOne
PSN: Cornughon
Posts: 1,557 Likes: 2,641
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Mass Effect Trilogy, Dragon Age: Origins, Dragon Age 2, Dragon Age Inquisition, KOTOR, Baldur's Gate, Shattered Steel, Neverwinter Nights, Jade Empire, Mass Effect Andromeda
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Post by Transcended One on May 1, 2017 16:04:29 GMT
UNLESS you get TWO N7s in the next pack, in that case they would remain fairly comparable. I would put money on the fact that your next pack will have 2 N7 items on it. I wouldn't. On topic: My latest 'unpacking' data: First I went with 21 premium packs:
-4th - Eagle I -11th - Angara Avenger VI -21th - Dhan II (so 9 'empty' premium packs before this one)
Then I went over to expert packs (continuing the numbers from above): -28th - Inferno IV -30th - Naladen IV -39th - Asari Duelist II -49th - Inferno V -59th - Crusader II -69th - Angara Avenger VII -79th - Asari Duelist III -80th was empty.
I'd like to add that the 78th pack was a premium pack (with no UR ofcourse), and it didn't 'reset' the counter.
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Post by JRandall0308 on May 1, 2017 16:05:49 GMT
Somebody needs to man up and test with a bunch of combinations intermixing Premium, Expert, Advanced, Basic, and even Supply. See if the counter persists across all those different pack types.
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Post by dustin1280 on May 1, 2017 16:09:01 GMT
@transcended One
Well damn, that means the premium packs are simply worse then expert on all levels (except for mods).
So the moral of this topic is never buy premium packs unless you are using andromeda points, ALWAYS buy expert.
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N3
Guilty until proven innocent.
Games: Mass Effect Trilogy, Dragon Age: Origins, KOTOR, Baldur's Gate, Mass Effect Andromeda
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Guilty until proven innocent.
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Post by pantherdane on May 1, 2017 16:20:12 GMT
Great. Now BW will patch nothing but this on Thursday. By that I mean take away the save, not fix the premium packs. Thanks OP.
Lol
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Post by ddrguy300 on May 1, 2017 16:59:54 GMT
Great. Now BW will patch nothing but this on Thursday. By that I mean take away the save, not fix the premium packs. Thanks OP. Lol TBH, if they want to commit developer suicide, it's not that much more skin off my back. I was doing the math last night and I still need 75 million to max my manifest. That's still another 500 hours, so the grind is still there. But yeah, if they want to be stupid, that's their dumb ass decision. Idk, I'd like to think that they'd think twice about shooting themselves in the foot. Regardless, I'm going to be saving for a long time now so whether they change this or actually have better options by the time I'm buying next I'll have to just wait and see. Changing this would truly be the nail in the coffin for this game and probably franchise, though. It's the thread holding the car from falling over the cliff at present.
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Post by mtcody on May 1, 2017 18:26:51 GMT
This is great, and a huge boon to the player-base if true. I will keep my eyes posted and get other MEA communities watching for this as well, for hopefully further confirmation. Reddit
GFAQS (don't judge me!!)Premium pack does share the same rule as Expert. Idk why you stated otherwise in your reddit thread.
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Post by gethadept on May 1, 2017 18:30:51 GMT
Great. Now BW will patch nothing but this on Thursday. By that I mean take away the save, not fix the premium packs. Thanks OP. Lol With 50 UR character cards... they are not worried.
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Post by dustin1280 on May 1, 2017 18:49:39 GMT
At MTcody, I'm updating the reddit thread now
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N3
Guilty until proven innocent.
Games: Mass Effect Trilogy, Dragon Age: Origins, KOTOR, Baldur's Gate, Mass Effect Andromeda
Posts: 437 Likes: 585
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Guilty until proven innocent.
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Post by pantherdane on May 1, 2017 18:50:40 GMT
Great. Now BW will patch nothing but this on Thursday. By that I mean take away the save, not fix the premium packs. Thanks OP. Lol With 50 UR character cards... they are not worried. I remember Blizzard was slow to patch for QOL or real bugs but something like this would get a hot patch the day they heard about it. Hope BW doesnt do the same. Lol
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Transcended One
N4
Games: Mass Effect Trilogy, Dragon Age: Origins, Dragon Age 2, Dragon Age Inquisition, KOTOR, Baldur's Gate, Shattered Steel, Neverwinter Nights, Jade Empire, Mass Effect Andromeda
Origin: TranscendedOne
PSN: Cornughon
Posts: 1,557 Likes: 2,641
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Mass Effect Trilogy, Dragon Age: Origins, Dragon Age 2, Dragon Age Inquisition, KOTOR, Baldur's Gate, Shattered Steel, Neverwinter Nights, Jade Empire, Mass Effect Andromeda
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Post by Transcended One on May 1, 2017 19:49:56 GMT
@transcended One Well damn, that means the premium packs are simply worse then expert on all levels (except for mods). So the moral of this topic is never buy premium packs unless you are using andromeda points, ALWAYS buy expert. Maybe even buy expert over premium using Andromeda points: For 12000 points you'll get 40 premiums, thus 4 GUARANTEED URs, or 60 experts, and 6 guaranteed URs. Sure the individual UR chance is (slightly?) higher when it comes to premiums, but I'm not certain if the increased UR chance actually outweighs getting experts instead. I would really like to know the actual chance for a Rare slot yielding an UR. But like previously has been stated, if this chance is 10%, than we're worse off buying premium packs.
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Games: Mass Effect Trilogy, KOTOR, Mass Effect Andromeda
Posts: 905 Likes: 1,826
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Post by vanelsa on May 1, 2017 19:50:57 GMT
Somebody needs to man up and test with a bunch of combinations intermixing Premium, Expert, Advanced, Basic, and even Supply. See if the counter persists across all those different pack types. I have been recording my pack purchases, save for Supply packs, since 3/31. Longest I've gone without a UR in consecutive Premium purchases has been 9, but my overall drop rate for UR's from Premium packs has been 24.09% Whenever I bought consecutive Expert packs, I would get a UR drop at least once every 10 packs. My overall drop rate for UR's from Expert packs has been 9.64%. The longest that I've gone with getting a UR drop from an Expert pack is 12, but 3 Premium packs were sandwiched between Expert purchases, and I got a UR from one of the Premium packs. Data below: 0. Expert - Eagle V1. Expert - Nothing 2. Expert - Nothing 3. Expert - Nothing 4. Expert - Nothing a. Premium - Angara Avenger VIb. Premium - Nothing c. Premium - Nothing 5. Expert - Nothing 6. Expert - Nothing 7. Expert - Nothing 8. Expert - Nothing 9. Expert - Nothing 10. Expert - Nothing 11. Expert - Nothing 12. Expert - Dhan VThus, my guess is that the UR counter resets whenever you get a UR card, be it from an Expert or Premium pack. I've never gotten a UR from an Advance Pack.
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Post by booga81 on May 1, 2017 20:08:00 GMT
Wish I'd counted how many premiums I opened between a double UR in one pack until the next I got.
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