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Post by gethadept on May 3, 2017 16:49:17 GMT
I opened 7 pack expert packs last night. This is right after the last UR I acquired few days ago.
I will buy 3 more expert packs tonight.. and see if the formula is indeed true. lol
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Post by waltervolpatto on May 3, 2017 17:56:26 GMT
did 10 packs and got the n7 at the 10th as expected
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Post by lennybusker on May 3, 2017 19:26:28 GMT
XBL didn't upload the clip for some reason so the shocking will have to wait for tonight / tomorrow. I paid for the seat but I'm only using THE EDGE
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Post by pitka17 on May 3, 2017 22:43:59 GMT
If the actual base chance is truly 10%, with a streakbreaker at the 10th in a row, then the effective odds are much higher overall. Consider the expected value (hi math) of the distribution of the number of picks required to get an item: (Number of picks:Probability) (1:0.1)(2:0.09)(3:0.081)(4:0.073)(5:0.066)(6:0.059)(7:0.053)(8:0.048)(9:0.043)(10:0.387) This results in an expect value of 6.5 packs. Therefore, you'd get an UR in 15.4% of Expert packs. I'll have to check the OP's video to see if these probabilities match, or if they are using a different system.
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Post by rlro on May 3, 2017 23:19:34 GMT
If the actual base chance is truly 10%, with a streakbreaker at the 10th in a row, then the effective odds are much higher overall. Consider the expected value (hi math) of the distribution of the number of picks required to get an item: (Number of picks:Probability) (1:0.1)(2:0.09)(3:0.081)(4:0.073)(5:0.066)(6:0.059)(7:0.053)(8:0.048)(9:0.043)(10:0.387) This results in an expect value of 6.5 packs. Therefore, you'd get an UR in 15.4% of Expert packs. I'll have to check the OP's video to see if these probabilities match, or if they are using a different system. I think the real odds are much lower. People have reported drops at a little over 10% because of the pity timer. Try using 5% and 7.5% on your simulation to see what you get.
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Post by pitka17 on May 3, 2017 23:51:27 GMT
If the actual base chance is truly 10%, with a streakbreaker at the 10th in a row, then ... I think the real odds are much lower. People have reported drops at a little over 10% because of the pity timer. Try using 5% and 7.5% on your simulation to see what you get. Examining the video in the OP the distribution had 10 values that were between 1-9 packs, and 24 values that were 10 packs. Which means 70% of the streaks were 10 long. In order for this to be true the "random chance" would have to 4% (Math: 0.96^9 to find probability that you'd fail 9 times). The distribution would look like: (1:0.04)(2:0.04*0.96)(3:0.04*0.96^2)... (10:0.69) The resulting expected value is 8.38 packs to get an UR. This provides an effective drop rate of 11.9%, which is much more consistent with some spreadsheet I saw that compared pack drop rates.
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Post by benzoright on May 3, 2017 23:59:41 GMT
Not that this needs more proving at this point, but I've gone on two separate buying sprees and each time got a UR on the 10th expert pack.
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Post by gethadept on May 4, 2017 0:10:31 GMT
I opened 7 pack expert packs last night. This is right after the last UR I acquired few days ago. I will buy 3 more expert packs tonight.. and see if the formula is indeed true. lol my 9th one was hurricane 2. i guess it works
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Post by JRandall0308 on May 4, 2017 1:15:55 GMT
TL;DR: the every-10-packs pity RNG persists across buying sessions. It appears to count (Expert + Premium) packs together. It does not matter if you intermix other packs.When last we left my pack-buying, I was sitting on a 9-long dry spell of Premium Packs. We expect to see an Ultra-Rare in my 10th Premium Pack. xboxclips.com/JRandall0308/a6ef6588-728b-456c-b0ac-ab9a0f1cf1e8/embedxboxclips.com/JRandall0308/a6ef6588-728b-456c-b0ac-ab9a0f1cf1e8But first, I buy a Supply Pack, then a Basic Pack. Does this break the streak? No it does not. The next Premium Pack I buy (10th since my last UR) provides a UR, the Eagle II. After that I switch to Expert Packs. Buy 9, no URs. Buy a random Basic Pack to break it up. Then I buy a Premium Pack for my 10th. Bam, another UR (Dhan III). 9 more Expert Packs. Intermix an Advanced Pack. 10th pack, Premium, UR (Krogan Gladiator II). = = = A couple days later. Buying Expert Packs. xboxclips.com/JRandall0308/dcdb521c-9030-49a8-b475-81ae3583f1a5/embed3 Experts, 1 Basic... Exit store. Go into Strike Team menu, do some stuff. Back to store. Buy 7 more Experts, 10th one has a UR (Salarian Operator II).
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Post by lennybusker on May 4, 2017 1:21:49 GMT
So is there a shared UR timer between Premium and Expert packs?! I thought people were saying they've gone more than 10 PP without a UR.
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Post by JRandall0308 on May 4, 2017 1:22:59 GMT
I can only speak to my own experience but if you scroll upthread there's a s-block with all my Premium Pack buys (70-ish at the time). URs came at least every 10 packs.
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Post by lennybusker on May 4, 2017 1:40:55 GMT
Well you know what they say, Data Rules Everything Around Me
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Post by SalMasRac on May 4, 2017 1:50:35 GMT
So if they're sharing the same pity counter, I'm thinking I might start buying 9 Experts then 1 Premium.
I'm feeling lucky, punk!
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Post by acicm2 on May 4, 2017 1:54:16 GMT
so its not RGN but diablo 3 Legendary Pity Timer.
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Post by JRandall0308 on May 4, 2017 2:07:48 GMT
So if they're sharing the same pity counter, I'm thinking I might start buying 9 Experts then 1 Premium. I'm feeling lucky, punk! You pay 55,000 for 10 Rares and 1 UR either way. (11 Experts or 9 Experts + 1 Premium)
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Post by JRandall0308 on May 4, 2017 2:31:26 GMT
Bad math of course I mean 550,000
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Post by mtcody on May 4, 2017 2:38:29 GMT
So if they're sharing the same pity counter, I'm thinking I might start buying 9 Experts then 1 Premium. I'm feeling lucky, punk! You pay 55,000 for 10 Rares and 1 UR either way. (11 Experts or 9 Experts + 1 Premium) Yes but what if that last premium pack gives 2 URs? One slot is obviously guaranteed but the other slot... Probably random as normal? Or does this pity counter ensure that the second slot won't be UR. If the second slot is random as normal when pity counter is triggered, then wow. In that case, buying 9 experts + 1 premium is the way to go then.
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Atheism is a non-prophet organization. -George Carlin
Games: Mass Effect Trilogy, Dragon Age: Origins, Dragon Age 2, Mass Effect Andromeda
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Post by Bzilla024 on May 4, 2017 3:42:57 GMT
So my 1100+ gold games needed to max my manifest is probably pretty accurate then?
I probably spent about that much time on ME3, but that was ME3.
edit: did anyone ever determine if getting level IV boosters resets the "10 pack counter" theory?
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Post by SalMasRac on May 4, 2017 7:05:41 GMT
So my 1100+ gold games needed to max my manifest is probably pretty accurate then? I probably spent about that much time on ME3, but that was ME3. edit: did anyone ever determine if getting level IV boosters resets the "10 pack counter" theory? Pretty sure the Rank IV Boosters are separate from the Pity Counter UR.
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Post by JRandall0308 on May 4, 2017 11:40:28 GMT
So my 1100+ gold games needed to max my manifest is probably pretty accurate then? I probably spent about that much time on ME3, but that was ME3. edit: did anyone ever determine if getting level IV boosters resets the "10 pack counter" theory? It does not will post proof later. Boosters must be considered separately from non- Boosters.
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Games: Mass Effect Trilogy, Dragon Age: Origins, Dragon Age 2, Dragon Age Inquisition, KOTOR, Baldur's Gate, Shattered Steel, Neverwinter Nights, Jade Empire, Mass Effect Andromeda
Origin: TranscendedOne
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Post by Transcended One on May 4, 2017 18:02:04 GMT
Advanced packs (or the 2 Initiative packs whatever) also don't reset the counter.
I'm curious though: what could be the chance that an UR drops 'early'? I know the assumption was made that it has a 10% chance. But it's also apparent, at least to me, that most URs drop on the 10th pack, instead of one of the first 9.
Of my last 10 URs I received (all from Expert packs), 7 were in the '10th', while 3 of them were handed over 'early'.
I know more data is probably required.
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Post by zeph on May 4, 2017 18:26:13 GMT
guess i'll be buying expert packs then cause these pp drops have been crap to me. Also, shout out to the poster and the community for so much input data on this subject.
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Post by zeph on May 4, 2017 18:34:21 GMT
I can confirm a drop rate of 1 UR per 10 on expert packs: 51 packs and got 5 URs. On premium packs, though, three separate times, I got drops rates 4.6 out of 10 (23 packs, 5 URs) and an even 4 out of 10 on the other two (8 packs each time, 2 UR's each time). Maybe it was just luck, but three times getting better than twice the rate of expert packs, I thought that was pretty amazing. Working my way up to another 800K in credits to try another 8 premium packs to see if the streak holds (have 559K right now). By tomorrow I'll be able to test. If you are getting the same amount of UR's by half through PP's then you're cutting yourself short of consumables. I read your other post too. IMO, seems like expert pack is the way to go.
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Post by JRandall0308 on May 4, 2017 18:47:50 GMT
Here's a bunch of data (below). Among other things: It's definitely possible to get URs more frequently than every 10 packs.# Packs Since Last UR | Count | 0 | 17 | 1 | 15 | 2 | 13 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 0 | TOTAL | 103 |
UR Boosters do not count towards the 10-pack pity RNG. (Exercise for the reader to interpret the data.) Type | Pack Number | # Rares non-Booster | # Ultra-Rares non-Booster | # Packs Since Last UR (non- | # Rares incl. Boosters | # Ultra-Rares incl. Boosters | # Consumables | Premium | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Premium | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | Premium | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | Premium | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | Premium | 5 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | Premium | 6 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | Premium | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | Premium | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | Premium | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | Premium | 10 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | Premium | 11 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Premium | 12 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Premium | 13 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Premium | 14 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | Premium | 15 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | Premium | 16 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | Premium | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Premium | 18 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | Premium | 19 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | Premium | 20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | Premium | 21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | Premium | 22 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | Premium | 23 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | Premium | 24 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | Premium | 25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Premium | 26 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | Premium | 27 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | Premium | 28 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | Premium | 29 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | Premium | 30 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Premium | 31 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | Premium | 32 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | Premium | 33 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | Premium | 34 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | Premium | 35 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Premium | 36 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | Premium | 37 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | Premium | 38 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | Premium | 39 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | Premium | 40 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | Premium | 41 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | Premium | 42 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | Premium | 43 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | Premium | 44 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | Premium | 45 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | Premium | 46 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Premium | 47 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Premium | 48 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | Premium | 49 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Premium | 50 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | Premium | 51 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | Premium | 52 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | Premium | 53 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Premium | 54 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | Premium | 55 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | Premium | 56 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | Premium | 57 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | Premium | 58 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Premium | 59 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | Premium | 60 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | Premium | 61 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Premium | 62 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | Premium | 63 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | Premium | 64 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | Premium | 65 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | Premium | 66 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | Premium | 67 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | Premium | 68 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | Premium | 69 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | Premium | 70 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Premium | 71 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | Premium | 72 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | Premium | 73 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | Premium | 74 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | Expert | 75 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | Expert | 76 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | Expert | 77 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Expert | 78 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | Expert | 79 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | Expert | 80 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | Expert | 81 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | Expert | 82 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | Expert | 83 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | Premium | 84 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Expert | 85 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | Expert | 86 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | Expert | 87 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | Expert | 88 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | Expert | 89 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | Expert | 90 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | Expert | 91 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | Expert | 92 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Expert | 93 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | Premium | 94 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Expert | 95 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | Expert | 96 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | Expert | 97 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | Expert | 98 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | Expert | 99 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | Expert | 100 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | Expert | 101 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | Expert | 102 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | Expert | 103 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
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Post by JRandall0308 on May 9, 2017 12:45:18 GMT
Cross-posting from another thread. All my raw data is here: drive.google.com/open?id=1Lmof5dVoHD4W-j3_A6FmujLiiwLDHX66qCHA3BCuFrkIn the 'Date Purchased' column, there are Comments with links to recordings of the pack opening on XboxClips -- very boring viewing but this is the proof in case you think I typed up a spreadsheet full of fake data. = = = = = I realized I have actually already tested a few things inadvertently. Does the pity RNG persist across buying sessions within the same log-in? Yes. Example: Pack #43 was the 9th in a row (Premium) without a UR. Pack #44 (Premium) in a new buying session gave a UR. Does the pity RNG persist across buying sessions after you log-out and then log-in later? Yes.Example: Pack #73 (Premium) was purchased on 29 April 2017 and was the 9th in a row without a UR. Almost a week later on 3 May 2017 I purchased Pack #74 (Premium) and got a UR. Does the pity RNG mix between Premium and Expert packs? Yes.Example: Packs #74-83 are all Experts, 9 in a row with no UR. Pack #84 is a Premium (10th) and gives a UR. Same experiment was repeated with Packs #85-93 (all Experts) and then Pack #94 (Premium). Note: I have only tested from 9 Experts --> 1 Premium but I hypothesize that 9 Premiums --> 1 Expert works the same way. Does the pity RNG care if you buy other types of packs in between, or do other stuff? No. You can mix in Supply, Basics, Advanced and it doesn't change the pity counter. You can also exit the store and do other stuff (my example was sending a Strike Team on a mission) and that won't affect the pity counter either. I can't remember exactly when I tested this but it's in the raw footage somewhere. Not tested: Does the pity RNG persist across console updates? Unknown.I had the opportunity to test this when XB1 did an update a few days ago, but unfortunately I didn't think to do so. Does the pity RNG persist across MEA game updates? Unknown.Hopefully we will find out soon, when the Great Patch arrives.
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