1.08, 1.09, 1.10 Premium / Arsenal / Reserves Pack research

Great work crashsuit. I will update the OP.

Holy shit, that's a lot of packs

In the spirit of community service and in following the excellent example set forth by crashsuit , I bought a bunch of Expert Packs this morning and recorded the results.

The total quantity of packs was merely 110 - perhaps not statistically significant, but it's more information than we had before.

The first UR dropped on the 28th pack purchased. This means that if the Expert Packs carry any sort of UR pity timer, you have to purchase more than double the quantity of Pack to activate it. This would indicate that you need to spend more credits on Expert Packs to get a UR than you do for Premium Packs.

In 110 Expert Packs opened, I received:
-- 8 URs
-- 8 packs contained more than one rare
-- Quite a few of them included uncommons - I did not count them.

Thus, the drop rate for URs in Expert Packs is projected to be 7.27%.

At a drop rate of roughly 1 in 4 for Premium Packs, you'll spend roughly 400,000 credits per UR buying Premium Packs.
Buying Expert Packs, I spent 5,500,000 for 8 URs, at an average cost of 687,500 credits per UR. I also received 8 additional rares along with many more consumables than I would have received spending the same 5.5M credits on Premium Packs.

Hope it helps.

I'll like to help test Expert pack UR drop rates but I have to wait until they add more stuff to the store.

There are special credit bonuses available for people who play on PC.

Everyone on PC has a rich Volus uncle.

Statistics Shmatistics. Spent 4 million credits on reserves, got 6 UR cards. I want expert packs back.

Opened 527 Expert packs tonight. Videos will go up tomorrow. 60 URs from 527 Expert packs = ~11.4% UR drop rate.


Thoughts:

- No immediately discernible UR pity timer. Wasn't keeping exact count, but I had some dry runs of around 30.

- Frequency of UR drops varied wildly. First 100 packs had 19 URs, next 100 had 6, next 100 had 8, next 100 had 15, next 100 had 6, and then it only took 27 more packs to get the last 6.

- Getting a really good or really bad run of URs from 50k packs or 100k packs in the short run is normal and expected, but in the long run you'll get closer and closer to the average drop rate. It's nothing personal or unusual, just RNG and/or math.

- Character cards dropped more often than guns, which I expected, as it follows the observed trends for all packs. First 100 packs had a 10/9 split, next 100 had a 4/2 split, next 100 had a 6/2 split, then it was all guns after that. While character cards were still dropping, they were weighted at around 60.6%.

- Post 1.07, I was hearing anecdotal evidence of new UR drop rates from Experts of around 3%-5%, which is pretty terrible compared to what they were before that. I was prepared to spend 50m tonight to open 1000 Experts so I could get a fairly accurate drop rate, which I was expecting to be maybe 4%-5%. 11.4% is pretty surprising, and seems to be pretty close to what the UR drop rate used to be post-1.07, minus the pity timer. Experts may have gotten a stealth buff sometime between 1.07 and 1.10. We could use more data to nail down the drop rate more accurately, but as far as I can tell right now, it's nearly half the UR drop rate for the Premium packs.

- Assuming we can verify that the UR drop rate for Expert packs works out to around half the rate for the 100k packs, Experts will once again be a better value than the more expensive packs, since you'd get around the same URs for the money, but more gold cards and more boosters. The one exception would be if you're spending real money for Andromeda Points and are just after UR cards. In that case you'd get more for your money buying 100k packs.

- No idea if this is working as intended, or something changed by accident, or if it's permanent, or subject to change in the future, or who even knows what.

It is/was believed that Experts packs have a pity timer of 30, although that was last verified immediately post-1.07, so it could have changed.

Interesting news about the relatively high 11.4% drop rate for URs in Expert packs! I will update the OP.

However note that the rate would need to be 12.5% or more (half of the 25% drop rate for Premiums) to make Experts consistently a better deal.

In respect to the longstanding forum tradition that We Do Not Talk About... How To Get Credits Fast (In Public Anyway), can I ask that you guys take this conversation to private message?

Thanks.