1.08, 1.09, 1.10 Premium / Arsenal / Reserves Pack research

Eh, I don't think anyone except you and me really cares any more. It's more curiosity at this point.

Did 1.10 change the UR drop rate? I could just be unlucky but I've gotten 3 URs out of the last 35 premiums/reserves i bought

"I Care" 

My first post on the “new” BSN (was a sometimes contribute on the original, usually on these kind of threads)

Wanted to pass on kudos to Crash for all the data, especially on the Expert packs. And, of course, to JRandall for … well everything.

I ran some excel Monte Carlo cases to try to gain some insight. My observations:

A 12% UR drop rate per slot would yield ~ 26% from the dual-slot Premium pack with 10-pack pity timer factored in. 11% rate would be about 24% with pity timer. Both probably within the data uncertainty.

So let’s assume the same 12% for the Expert. Results:
Obviously 12% with no pity timer.
The hypothesized "~30-pack” pity timer would in the long run do little except keep you from going postal. It raises the long-term rate to ~12.3%
Conversely, the former [sigh] 10 pack pity timer would take an Expert pack up from 12% to ~16.5%(!)

I always assumed the same per slot drop rate. Looks like Crash’s latest data is inline with that. So I’ll buy Experts for all the other goodies.

Oh, and points for the Excel MC. I expect a fully Bayesian calculation using Markov Chains on my desk by tomorrow morning. 😝

Yep, okay.

So the analysis about Expert packs above is very interesting then. Is there any known difference in the drop rates between Premium tiers, aside from a higher chance for guns or characters in Arsenal and Reserves, respectively? Because if not, it seems like this might show that Experts are actually a better strategy.

Lazy data reporting.

6 July 2017
Arsenal packs: got to 9-long dry spell (from earlier date), bought 10 Supply packs, 10th Arsenal contained UR. Arsenal pity timer was not broken by Supply packs.
Also 2 UR / 10 Arsenal packs, both Weapons.
Also 11 UR / 25 Reserves packs, 8 Characters & 3 Weapons. Includes 1 double-UR pack (both Characters).

3 August 2017 & 4 August 2017
40 Experts contained 3 URs (2 Weapons & 1 Character).
Also included 2 double-Rare packs, and another 14 packs with a Rare+Uncommon.
Of the 39 Rares(*), 28 Characters & 11 Weapons. This suggests Characters are weighted over Weapons when you still have both to unlock, which is what people believe anyway.
(*) Expected 40 Rares in 40 Expert packs but the 3 URs displaced 3 Rares, down to 37, and then two double-Rare packs brought it back up to 39.

4/5/6 August 2017
45 Arsenals contained 8 URs (all Weapons).
45 Reserves contained 13 URs (12 Characters & 1 Weapon).

Yes I was pretty jazzed at that Reserves pack sample, especially when I got 5 URs in my first 9 Reserves including 3 in a row.

Also of note: I hit a 9-long dry spell on the Arsenals and purchased the 10th pack using the Apex HQ app. It did contain a UR. So based on a sample size of 1 (LOL), purchasing in the app does not break the pity timer.

Here's a playlist I put together of all my different pack research videos. If you want you can put it under my name in your first post, I'm the only one listed without a convenient link to my research data.

www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL1_BoZ80rxMMBTvXvWliFMiYUG8IOQBs5

Apex pack back in the store, apparently you can buy it three times before it disappears. I bought it twice and it disappeared, so I'm guessing that for people who bought it when it was temporarily up early by accident the other week, that counts as one of the three. I don't have anything to unlock, so I tried the ol' pull the network cable both times to try to get them to land in my unclaimed packs, but no dice. Just a whole bunch of expensive consumables.

Seems I may be unlucky. I got two replies on reddit from people who bought the early pack and were still able to buy three Apex packs since it was re-added.

I have some extra Apex pack data for you from some alt accounts. Three Apex packs, 1 UR each.

Edit: Gladiator, Silhesh, and... Silhesh

I think you only get one when you succeed, right?

I was getting them awarded for failed solo matches. No idea if that's working as intended or not.